Posted on 12/29/2019 3:02:59 AM PST by upchuck
About this time in every presidential nomination contest there is talk of a brokered convention. As if on cue, we’re hearing it again...
In years past, most delegates went to conventions unelected by voters and unpledged to candidates. This happens less frequently these days. “Favorite son” candidacies, once used to park delegates until deals were cut, are now extinct. The “unit rule,” which forced state delegations to vote unanimously for one candidate, is also gone. Democrats now require the nominee win only a majority of delegates, long ago discarding the old two-thirds requirement...
Party strategists instinctively fear prolonged intraparty battling and its effect on general election prospects. That’s why they push to unite around one candidate as fast as possible. Next year, there will be several opportunities for that to happen. The first comes in February when four states vote. If Joe Biden wins Iowa and New Hampshire and continues to top national polls, an effort could emerge to rally around the former vice president as the nominee. While it’s conceivable something like that could happen, it’s more likely party activists would oppose shutting down the competition so soon.
The next milestone is Super Tuesday, March 3. At that point, 40% of delegates will have been selected from 18 states. Unless it’s a tight two-way contest, there will be enormous pressure to stop the fight by the end of April when 88% of delegates from 40 states will have been elected.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
W/ this crop of washed-out Dem wannabees....must be a few “waiting in the wings”...........cackle.
As the author points out, there is always talk of a brokered convention, but it never materializes because both parties know it would damage the eventual nominee.
It is better to cut the backroom deals earlier in the process than after there is no clear winner.
The entire strategy of Skunk Cabbage is for the convention to be brokered, and the she rides in on her white stallion, on to the convention floor, and SAVES THE DAY by agreeing to be the nominee. But first she has to make sure no one wins on the first ballot, and that’s why we now see Bloomberg in the race, and that’s why Bloomberg went to where no other candidate could go, which was to (correctly) state outright that Biden isn’t capable of running the country.
We’ll see how the strategy works, but one thing for sure, Skunk Cabbage is not about to go through the primary process again - she considers herself to be WAY above that garbage.
Up until the 1930s/1940s....I think you could still get away with a brokered convention. Since the TV moderators got into the image in the 1960s...I’d say that brokering at a convention is getting to almost an impossible level of secrecy and deal-making to achieve.
However, I would add this for 2020....you basically have four candidates left in the chaos (Sanders, Warren, Mayor Pete, and Biden), and frankly from the rank-and-file normal Democratic voters....probably 50-percent aren’t that excited over any of the four.
If Sanders could explain how he’d turboize the tax program without dissolving 10-million jobs, or Mayor Pete explaining his marginal 5-line resume as making him qualified, or Biden talking for ten minutes and sounding like your crazy Uncle Murray who should be in a retirement home, or Warren telling her woeful period in life and citing her Indian heritage as what kept her on track....there’s just nothing there to correspond to Bill Clinton’s or Barak Obama’s ‘brand-name’ status.
Please do not insult good, honest, hard-working and productive skunk cabbages on this site by comparing them to a Hillary candeadate.
But you’re right. That IS her method. Divide the first vote. Be carried in to her throne on a lounge chair on the shoulders of a slavish media licking her hopes.
This is going to be fun!
A Public 3 way between Drooling Joe, Fauxahontus, And Bingo Bernis?
Can’t wait.
... and as she stands up to claim her crown for the second time, she drops dead from a heart attack or a stroke. That would be historic.
The only “contest” I can see is .... if there will even BE a dem candidate.
Fair point, apologies to the real skunk cabbage, something my wife cooks often. It is not the fault of the real skunk cabbage, that an imitator is trying to run again.
But the author points out that due to rule changes, the possibility of a contested convention is increased. If there is no clear front runner after the first four primaries or the field is not narrowed to two after Super Tuesday, the odds of a contested convention go up.
The Dems have no winner take all primaries and it takes winning at least 15% of the vote to earn delegates. It is quite conceivable that there could be 4 Dem candidates still standing after Super Tuesday, i.e., Biden, Bernie, Mayor Pete, and Warren. After Super Tuesday, 40% of the delegates will have been selected based on the results from the 18 primaries.
IMO the race will will not be winnowed down to just two candidates after Super Tuesday.
Cannot see a nominee coming from outside the primary process. It would alienate too many Dem voters and invoke the ire of the candidate (s) who got the most votes and/or delegates from the primary process. Their supporters would be livid.
Hillary or Michelle will not be the deus ex machina to rescue the Dem party.
What difference does it make what theatrics they pull at their convention? The “super delegates” will choose their nominee.
IMO the race will will not be winnowed down to just two candidates after Super Tuesday. <<
I agree......it will be brokered but it wont be Hillary...Big Mike will step in to save the day....Watch how shes already making “news”....
https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/MichelleObama
No way as the nominee. Could be a VP choice though.
I agree; Hillary is toast. Not only was she unpopular with swing voters, but the big donors handed her an election with 24/7/365 media control and she still lost. I can’t recall the last time I even saw her stand up; she’s done.
It doesn’t help that immediately after the 2016 election, a lot of libs shredded her as a horrible candidate; all those comments could be used against her. She just has to join Gore, Kerry, etc. in the losers’ circle - forever.
And hopefully, there will be some shoes to drop from the Durham investigation. Hillary was behind the Steele Dossier and the Russia hoax. We also have more information on her emails than was available in 2016. A target rich environment.
Interesting “contested” when nobody actually wants the nomination.
I honestly don’t think either side is considering her at all; she is damaged goods, with little support. As libs conceded after the 2016 race, Trump had a message (”Make America Great Again”), while her campaign was a cheerless “I’m not Trump” rant. She had no real message then, and now has no credibility to spread one.
Jill Stein’s votes would have put her over the top, but too many libs just couldn’t pull a lever for Hillary.
There will be one next year, I’m betting. She has made it known that she wants one more chance in the batters box. What a fool. And her supporters are even worse. But then again, she has a lot of IOUs outstanding and she needs to pay up.
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