Skip to comments.A Year After the Caravans, Has Trump Won?
Posted on 12/09/2019 5:41:38 AM PST by BeauBo
A year has passed since two Central American caravans arrived in Tijuana last fall... everything has changed...
Today, few Central American asylum seekers have been able to make it to Tijuana. In the last 12 months, a combination of US deterrence policy and a massive Mexican immigration crackdown has destroyed northward movement towards Tijuana...
Tijuana looks much different today than it did a year ago. When the caravans first arrived, the international media descended on the city in a swarm; camera flashes lit up shelters. Now, the city has mostly recovered from the chaos of last fall. Migration from the south has plunged to such a slow trickle that when I asked the citys new mayor, Arturo González Cruz, what he thought of the issue, he told me, It is practically not a problem.
Instead, he said his city was facing a different challenge: People coming back into Tijuana from the United States.
Right now, the real issue concerning migration has come from the US government deciding to expel migrants, González said...
Today, the option of crossing between ports is no longer viable for most asylum seekers. Even if they face persecution in Mexico, crossing both legally and illegally comes with a high likelihood of being returned to Mexico.
(Excerpt) Read more at thenation.com ...
What is it with all these Africans, Arabs ETC. trying to get into the USA. Who is funding their trip to Central America?
San Diego's new Super Barrier System is scheduled to complete construction next month - from the Ocean to the the mountains outside of the city. A contract to extend it through the steep part of the mountains, to join with the next run of pre-existing bollards, has already been awarded.
Has Trump won? What’s his objective? What were his promises concerning immigration? Have those objectives and promises been realized? That’s your answer.
The American people have “won” this battle, in the war for their nation as founded! next...
Hmmm. You have to like how the author wrote that, right?
A Year After the Caravans, Has Trump Won?
And here is the real problem. Everything on the Left is boiled down to Trump and not the USA. If Trump is for it, they are against it. Thus, even when the USA wins, it is framed as Trump winning some kind of nefarious policy that any decent human would oppose. Not based on the policy, but based on what Trump wants.
Even Uncle Joe has gotten into the action by claiming that he and Obama were just enforcing the laws "at the time" when they deported illegals in the Obama administration. Never mind that we haven't had any changed laws, the Presidency is now occupied by Trump and so Trump must not win and Trump policy is bad no matter what. So if Trump is enforcing the same laws that were in place when Obama was President, then that is bad because it is Trump.
In other words, Trump never gets that victory, understand?! (In the words of Jack Woltz from "The Godfather")
Theres something really strange about that statistic graphic.
Ive read a number of reports that there will be at least 300-350 miles of wall done by the end of the year.
This is the only challenge Ive seen to those reports from various sources.
See for yourself: https://www.trumpwall.construction/
The year that has been widely talked about for the wall construction is next year (2020). They want to have over 400 miles done by the end of next year.
That is the important year for two reasons. First, because the election is near the end of the year, and it could be a big election issue. Secondly, if President Trump is not re-elected, that might be all that gets built - a new Leftist President might order a total halt.
Getting a lot of wall built requires the big money, that the President could only get through the emergency declaration, earlier this year. The contracting lead time is such that only about half of those billions is on contract so far (although the rest should be awarded relatively soon, like the next 1-3 months). Then there is about a year of construction on each contract.
The first big runs (45, 63 miles) just started building in September. About 100 miles is now on five contracts awarded in the critical Rio Grande Valley, but only the first two crews have started work yet. Late next year, we will have about a dozen crews working there.
We started 2019 building at a rate of two miles per month, and now we are running a bit faster than two miles a week. We are on track to ramp up to around a mile per day, over the next few months, as more and more crews are added, and more contracts are awarded.
2020 is going to be the big year for wall building.
The segments getting contracted have been carefully prioritized. Those first few hundred miles will shut the areas where the great majority of illegal traffic now flows. The total plan for full operational control of the border called for a total of 1,100 miles of barrier, but the last few hundred miles is to block marginal areas, that might serve as alternate routes in the future.
What has already been funded (509 miles) and about 200 more (Laredo, Del Rio and Eagle Pass), would be a pretty effective total barrier. All the urbanized areas would be walled off, and any crossings would require long travel in rural areas, that is highly detectable to the big technology programs (which are also rapidly rolling out, this year and next).
If the President can manage a few billion more in 2020, he can contract for roughly everything needed to fully control the border, although the construction would extend through 2021, and likely into 2022 to complete.
I appreciate the response, and I agree with some of what you said there. It still does not adequately address the issue of the 300-350 miles that were discussed as (going to be) being completed by the end of 2019.
I’ve read numerous articles addressing how much wall would be built by the end of 2019. The range I mentioned, reflects that.
Just now I tried to find some of them and came up short.
Not sure if those articles no longer exist or what.
It wasn’t just one article, and they all seemed to agree on the general number of miles.
This graphic comes nowhere close to matching those articles.
i can’t figure out why they didn’t top it with razor concertina wire and sharks with lasers ...
“There’s no wall yet, so no - not yet. “
looks like the rest of your “no wall yet” Freeper buddies have deserted you ... they used to make “no wall” posts on these kinds of threads by the dozens ... i guess you’re the only “no waller” remaining ...
“why they didnt top it with razor concertina wire”
The Military has been emplacing the concertina, out of the DoD budget, so DHS dollars can buy more miles of wall.
They will generally wait until the whole construction project is finished (unless operationally urgent) - until the Contracting Officer accepts delivery of the finished project, after final inspection.
That way, there is no re-working, if the contractor has to fix something, and they don’t get in each other’s way.
The Military deployment to the border, which includes Combat Engineer support to emplace concertina and harden Ports of Entry, has been extended through FY20 (30 September 2020). They will emplace hundreds more miles of Concertina before the election.
I would bet a months pay, that a high priority place like San Diego will get complete coverage with concertina. It is very effective in defeating ladder and rope attacks, which is the only reasonably easy option remaining for crossers there.
“they used to make no wall posts on these kinds of threads by the dozens”
There was a long slow start for the Wall Program - but still very rapid by Government construction norms.
The first week of the Trump Administration, the President issued Executive Order 13767, directing a Comprehensive Plan be developed to build the wall, and achieve full operational control of the Southern Border within 180 days.
The Republican House under Speaker Ryan inserted a wedge into the 10 year baseline budget of $1.4-$1.6 Billion (inflating over time), to set aside the approximately $15 billion then estimated. The thinking was that careful analysis, tradeoffs and prioritization would allow most efficient use of the investment.
Some limited but clearly pressing priorities, like San Diego, were authorized to go forward, before the results of the study were complete. The study dragged out due to the complexity, every Leftist obstacle and lawsuit imaginable, and an increase in total estimated cost (notably for compensating landowners).
It was submitted to Congress in March or 2018, kicked back with a mountain of questions and objections by the CBO and Congressional staffers - but the final report was accepted by Congress in December 2018 nonetheless ($25 billion over 5 years, for 1,100 miles of barrier, thousands more full time positions and several technology programs).
Designs had been rigorously evaluated (like the prototype contest), routes were precisely defined, tradeoffs between technology (”virtual Wall”) and physical barrier were analyzed, segments were prioritized - everything was ready to go.
But by then, the Dems had retaken the House in the Midterms, and refused to fund beyond the wedge in the baseline budget (a slow roll strategy to wait out President Trump’s term).
The President and his Administration were prepared for a double cross from the Democrats - they had prepared for two years. The President declared the emergency within hours of the Democrats final decision to not appropriate the needed amounts - before the bill even made it to his desk for signature.
Because the President had the main funding prepared, the Program was able to enter full scale deployment, without missing a beat.
The reality is that several years are normally required for a large construction effort to be planned and get into the budget. Many cook off for ten to twenty years, before ground is broken - and most of them are far smaller and simpler than the wall.
Once a project is funded, construction money is authorized as five-year money (which can be kept on account for up to five year without expiring, to make progress payments). The money received in 2017 for the wall has been completely expended, construction is complete, and the projects have been finally accepted by the Government. Execution is exceptionally quick.
Everything about this program has been dramatically quicker than Government norms for similar programs, but there are still long lead times that had to be satisfied for legal challenges, Government contracting requirements, and land acquisition; after the planning and budgeting were accomplished.
So that is why there was a frustratingly long delay in getting wall built in earnest.
But the reality has fundamentally changed, as it is all now precisely laid out what must be done, where, and how; and there is a tidal wave of billions of dollars to do it.
We started 2019 with 40 miles done, and building about two miles per month. With just the current funding (if not another dime comes for 2020), we are on track to end 2020 with well over 400 miles, and building a mile per day.
I anticipate that the President will get the default wedge funding of about $1.5 billion in the FY2020 DHS budget to build more wall, and will be resourceful in freeing up a few billion more from other sources. That would put us within striking distance of getting most or all of the required barrier and technology completed, or on contract, during President Trump’s first term (although construction would have to continue at least into 2022).
Just what will be completed at the end of 2020, will be transformative - the traditional main corridors buttoned up with Trump-style super barrier system that includes tall bollards which cannot be rammed through, good patrol road, lights cameras, alarms and sensors; which will bring detection rates near 100%, and allow timely interdiction by design.
“but I expect his promise on the wall to be kept.”
all by himself, with no help from Congress, even when the Pubs had both Houses and refused to fund the wall?
what’s Trump supposed to do? poop million dollar bills?
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