Posted on 11/27/2019 1:02:54 PM PST by robowombat
Bloomberg bets 2020 campaign on unprecedented strategy BY JULIA MANCHESTER - 11/27/19 03:32 PM EST
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s unconventional campaign strategy is panning out to be one of riskiest experiments in primary politics, testing the limits of personal wealth and name recognition.
Bloomberg, who officially threw his hat in the Democratic primary ring last week, will not accept donations nor fund his own campaign, automatically disqualifying himself from the primary debates.
The billionaire politician also says he plans to focus on the Super Tuesday states, and won’t compete in the crucial early contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Operatives acknowledge Bloomberg’s game plan is risky, but are not dismissing his chances given that he is backed by his enormous personal wealth.
Bloomberg is worth roughly over $50 billion and has long championed liberal causes like combatting climate change. But he is also a former Republican, an affiliation that is expected to draw scrutiny during the primary.
The former mayor is hoping his history in politics and advocacy on issues such as gun control could be key in building a coalition of moderate and liberal voters.
That's a feat none of the existing candidates in the race have been able to pull off so far in a race that has featured four leading contenders: former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg from the party's centrist wing, and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) from the progressive camp.
Whether Bloomberg can emerge as an alternative without spending time in early states or facing off on the debate stage remains in doubt.
“I think skipping the early states and skipping the debates could definitely be a problem,” veteran Democratic operative David Brock told The Hill.
“Both of those are opportunities to speak more directly to voters.”
Other strategists, however, argue that Bloomberg’s absence from Iowa and New Hampshire may not be critical because of the states’ lack of voter diversity.
“I have to say it'll probably piss people [off] in Iowa, New Hampshire, who are used to almost two years of slavish devotion,” a Democratic strategist told The Hill. “But is it a bad thing to move beyond those small, white, rural, under-representative early states?”
Another former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, similarly skipped the early states for the most part to focus on Florida and the Super Tuesday states. The strategy ended badly, and he was forced to withdraw after finishing third in the Sunshine State and never even making it to Super Tuesday.
Despite being a billionaire and former mayor of New York, Bloomberg will similarly have to work to put his name out in a number of the Super Tuesday states where he is less known, such as those in the South.
But unlike Giuliani, Bloomberg has deployed a $31 million ad buy across 98 local media markets, as well as on some national cable outlets -- an unprecedented level of spending for a candidate who has just joined the race.
Whether that can be enough remains to be seen. Warren attacked Bloomberg for using "bags and bags of money" to buy his way into the race, while Sanders declared himself "disgusted" by the spending.
“His name ID his significantly less than Biden or Warren or Sanders in any of those states in the middle [of the country] of the South,” Michael Gordon, a Democratic strategist and principal at Group Gordon, said. “His money can help there but he doesn’t have the longstanding credibility."
In order to be competitive in the South, Bloomberg will need to perform well among African-Americans, a potential hurdle given the scrutiny on his record as New York City mayor.
The billionaire this month apologized for his “stop and frisk” policing strategy during his tenure as mayor, saying he did not understand “the full impact that stops were having on the black and Latino communities.”
There are also few signs that Bloomberg has built-in support from other critical Democratic constituencies such as Latinos. Sanders, for example, has avidly courted Latino voters since his 2016 campaign.
“The political reality is, I don't think he will do exceptionally well with Latino voters because I don't think they know who the heck he is," Moe Vela, a Democratic strategist and former adviser in the Clinton and Obama White Houses, told The Hill.
“I’ve never seen Michael Bloomberg do anything to connect with the Latino community,” he continued. “So all of the sudden you’re going to come into Texas and California and Super Tuesday states and you’re going to pump in a bunch of money.”
Bloomberg’s absence on the debate stage could also prove to be a hurdle in his efforts to familiarize voters with his name.
A number of candidates like Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and businessman Andrew Yang are scrambling to ensure they get a spot on next month’s debate stage under toughened criteria.
But other strategists believe Bloomberg can afford not to take part in debates given that he is better known than some of the lower-polling candidates in the race.
“So many of them are fighting for oxygen that they are looking for a clip that can go viral, they're looking for a mention or maybe even a seat around the [morning news shows] table,” another Democratic strategist said. “He doesn’t have to do that. Michael Bloomberg doesn’t fight for oxygen.”
Others say Bloomberg could even benefit from being absent from the primary debates, and avoiding the likely on-stage attacks from candidates such as Warren and Sanders.
“Why would you want to stay in a place where your opponents could beat the devil out of you?” veteran New York strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who has worked with Bloomberg, told The Hill.
Despite the doubts about Bloomberg's strategy, few are willing to dismiss his chances in an unusually fluid race that has seen candidates such as Buttigieg vault from obscurity to top contender in the matter of months.
“Six months ago, there was a guy with a name no one could pronounce from a state with a low population, from a city that very few people go to to visit,” Sheinkopf said, referring to Buttigieg. “He is now one of the top four competitors in public polling.”
“This is 2019,” he said. “Anything can happen.”
I’m think more on the lines of messing with the front runner whomever that might be.
the boy's hemorrhaging spondulicks over here...
Is "veteran Democratic operative" a euphemism for sleazy Clinton hatchet-man who used to be a GOP toady?
He is a little flower, very little.
“IA and NH no longer matter AT ALL in the nomination process.”
This is the latest communist bullshit, to portray IA & NH unworthy “b/c no diversity”.
We need to come up with strategies to CRUSH these commies; they are much more organized now than they were in the 60’s OR even in early 2000s. Ayers and Obama have trained them well. They are TAKING OVER.
No, it’s not. They arrested the guy spreading those memes for “hate crime”. Think about that. IOTBW is a “hate crime”.
No, the article says “will not accept donations nor fund his own campaign”
I wonder where he’s getting the money?
I think by cutting out the middle man, the media and the establishment election machinery could be upset due to the loss of money. That is all they consider. Whether the correct person gets the nod or not is not the goal, the goal is to keep the money flowing for over a year.
He defines what it means to be an out of touch east coast limo liberal. No national appeal WHAT SO EVER.
Note 6 of those states have only 1 or 2 Top 50 DMAs, Doomberg will literally 'buy out' markets like Minneapolis and freeze out other contenders.
What's interesting though, if this is meant to undermine Biden, GropinJoe is already not buying a ton of ads and is going on name-brand Donkey VP status -- which had traditionally been a HUGE edge in primaries, until Cheney declined to contest '08 unfortunately, and Biden passed on contesting '08 and very mistakenly passed on '16:
So what is Doomberg doing, but cutting off the air of last-gasp candidates like Karamela, Kobuchar, Booker; and putting the hurt on running-out-of-powwow Fauxcahontas, and heart-attack Bernie -- knowing full damn good well those Senators will be stuck in a Senate trial for the dual purpose of ruining Biden and/or Trump.
I'm going against the conventional wisdom -- I think Doomberg knows he's unelectable outside of NYC and is trying to HELP Biden and/or Trump, at the expense of the Democrat Socialist women (and Bern).
You think a 50B billionaire wants to be taxed at 100%?
The only other possibility is to help Butt, and Doomberg’s friendset does overlap strongly with those Hurtass ex-Bobo Ambassador PAC stuffing TENS of MILLIONS in Butt’s campaign.
Its a money laundering operation to help the DNC. That’s the strategy. He’s a “candidate” in name only. No limits on what he can contribute this way.
Not just his own money either. Whoever contributes to his “campaign” has their money laundered this way too.
This is the objective. He’s basically formed a “PAC” and the PAC is his political campaign to skirt the regulations.
Yes!
I don’t believe the FCC allows a candidate to buy out all available time. If a broadcaster sells 5,000 spots to a candidate, the broadcaster must allow other candidates to buy an equal number of spots at the same rate.
What gets squeezed out is regular advertising, and the commissions that sales people get.
He is acting like Hillary. He thinks his money is the Superdelegates he has wrapped up. He does not have to campaign very much, and his acolytes (in this case, his money) will do all the work for him.
I appreciate President Trump more each and every day for the hard work he has done, since day one when he declared for the Presidency. I think that is one reason he is loved and successful.
Dems don’t want to do the work. Skip primaries, wrap up Superdelegates, allow illegal votes, appoint liberal judges to legislate, and let the media do their dirty work.
The unprecedented strategy of being completely unappealing and uninspiring. Make America not “Make America Great Again” Again.
Also the way it is shaping up, only Biden and Butt and Bernie can even spend a high fraction of that amount. My understanding is, this $37-38B buy is just to nail down prime in the top DMAs, and as I noted, that is extremely easy to do in 5 or 6 of those states.
Actually it's not. Guiliani had this strategy in 2008 and bypassed Iowa and New Hampshire.
It failed badly and we ended up with McCain.
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