Pretty well thought out post. I served in HK as a foreign service specialist information management in the IPC.
I seriously doubt the US is doing what you State but would put my money on the Anglos queen, NZ, and the aussies.
Our leverage is economic. We could slow imports by imposing 100% inspections instead of radiation checking and spot checks.
Also, Trump can peg the RMB at a level thru the G-nations and world bank.
Our spooks in HK are all declared as such so we are not spying.
One cousin and his wife have been in Egypt since the late eighties, one and her husband in Poland since '92, and another and his wife in China since '94. (geez, thinking about back when they all went overseas in their late twenties or early thirties I feel really old) The couple who were in China moved to Hong Kong about a year ago when the job with a State industry something or other let her go and put a native Chinese in the job.
Their view from HK is very interesting as it has been about China for years. This cousin's wife, though, is singing a whole different tune now that she and hubby are in HK and planning on moving back to the US.
You could very well be right about who is behind what's going on in HK and surely are about any of our spooks who have been there very long if not all of them. All I know for sure is the way it's going is a very familiar pattern.
A pattern that some say has been around a long time, but which is now clearly marked with some very specific types of actors that haven't been around a long time as well as very new tools being used. Saying there's nothing new under the sun is a cliche' that can be applied to anything so I still say it has some unique fingerprints as coming from the same "community" or "school", if you will.
I'd like to see someone peg the RMB and HK dollar both. Seems to me that would put an awful lot of pressure on the Chinese Party leadership.
Regards