[alancarp]

Okay, this is gonna start throwing a money wrench into everything...first, here's 1 of Dr. Ryan Maue's latest tweets:

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Ryan Maue @RyanMaue
I'm concerned that Hurricane #Dorian could move west even more slowly than forecast.

The entire FL peninsula from Miami to Jax should still be prepared for an erratic track ... and very intense Cat 3+
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The reason he's saying this is because of the latest tracks for the European model's 'ensemble' run. Many of those solutions have the storm slowing early and hanging a right turn *before* hitting the East Coast of Florida.

See that tweet here. Yeah - it's one model run, but the Euro is pretty good... certainly better than the GFS. So maybe there's a chance that Florida could escape??

(FWIW: My experience suggests that the models to believe are the ones 3 days out from landfall... which would be about this time tomorrow).

[alancarp]

*monkey wrench

[VanShuyten]

“Many of those solutions have the storm slowing early and hanging a right turn *before* hitting the East Coast of Florida.”

That’s sort of good news. I saw some models yesterday that showed Dorian cutting across Florida, strengthening in the Gulf over the warm water and then going north.

[cll]

“(FWIW: My experience suggests that the models to believe are the ones 3 days out from landfall... which would be about this time tomorrow)”.

Down here in Puerto Rico the models for Dorian erred by 175 miles, 3 different scenarios in the last 24 hours. Of course, it was still organizing and PR is a much smaller target than Florida.