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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
LOL!
Tonight models runs are nice and tightly clustered, a tad closer to FL early but then a tad farther east near the Carolinas. Don’t expect too much change with the 11 pm advisory. #Dorian #cltwx #ncwx #scwx
All but one of the models keep Dorian offshore.
The former Prime Minister of Canada must be saddened.
I bet the guys out on Frying Pan Tower off Wilmington are getting a knot jerked up their backsides over this change in forecast.
I’m not a geek, and I appreciate that with so many millions in harm’s way a decision has to be made early....but after Dorian is history, do we need to figure out if the reason/s we can’t get a better handle on these buggers is because we need way more and better data, better models, less politics...some or all of the above.
Or maybe these things are just so dang big and complex we’ll never be able to predict them farther out.
You can’t predict them further out when the conditions around them are so unstable which can change in a heartbeat....I listened to a fellow talk about that today. It’s just not possible as nature does what it does.
You can’t predict them further out when the conditions around them are so unstable which can change in a heartbeat....I listened to a fellow talk about that today. It’s just not possible as nature does what it does.
Yet the Lefties at the Weather Channel will tell us how the climate is gonna be in 50 years IF we don't "do something".
Political forecasts are different than weather forecasts... The politicians at the weather channel need to learn that
“The world shall wax old like a garment” Isaiah 52:6
+1
Some Easterners fear earthquakes, but some Westerners fear alligators!
This westerner is afraid of wasps. Alligators not so much. Now those fire ant thingies you have.....
If the solution was easy, someone would have gotten fat rich from it by now. Could save a lot of labor and capital with 95 % accuracy. Right now we appear to be running about 50 %. Either their predictions are correct or they are not. 50 50. lol.
Modeling is not science. All the graphs are nothing but cool looking cartoons.
Too early to tell what will ultimately occur.... timing is every as far as when the turn occurs....
Time to check in for me. I am just southeast of Wilmington, NC right outside of Jacksonville NC. I work at Walmart and this morning we got 11 pallets of emergency water supply. Gone within 2 hours. As people saw the change of projectory on reports, panic set in and it was a zoo. As I work in self check out, I caught 8 people stealing water alone. I KNOW tomorrow will be worse. The aisles are clear of basic necessities. No Propane, though we did put in for an emergency delivery. Last year my son, my godmother, myself and 4 dogs and a cat hunkered down with only the bbq to use for cooking/coffee. DIL and 3 grands went to stay with her sister in CHI. This year we will probably stay put and bunker down. Please keep us in your prayers. Prayers out to all others in Dorians path. May God watch over us and protect us all!
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