Please don’t confuse me. Probability changes after an event. In other words, after something has happened, we have a 100% probability, it’s not 1 i n 10 to anything. Before the event, not so. That’s why it is said, “once the conditions for it are right.” Nobody is disputing a uniformity of natural causes as a precondition.
I think I understand your point here, but it's not what I'm saying.
I'm saying that any particular chemical reaction can only happen when conditions for it are right, period.
When such conditions are right, the reaction will happen 100% of the time, no "probability" to it.
The obvious fact that we don't know what those conditions were, or even needed to be, doesn't mean they didn't happen -- clearly they did.
The theological question here is whether God intervened directly in those pre-biological events or were they simply part of His grand design from the very beginning?
I suspect the latter, but will be delighted, in due time, to learn of the former.