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How Roy Moore Could Actually Win Alabama’s Republican Senate Primary
FiveThirtyEight ^ | Live Blog: Women’s World Cup Jun. 20, 2019 | Geoffrey Skelley

Posted on 06/24/2019 10:19:09 AM PDT by Texan4Life

A large primary field may fragment the vote, making it unlikely that a candidate could win a majority and avoid a runoff and making it easier for Moore to advance to a runoff with only the support of his base.

The point is that Moore does have a path — especially a path to a primary runoff if there’s a crowded GOP field. And if he does get there, he would be only one step away from a rematch with Jones.

Moore would still have a decent chance of winning a general election in conservative Alabama, and that is surely a big part of why he’s running again.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama
KEYWORDS: alabama; marajadetroll; primary; republican; senate
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Is Strange running this time? And there were others in the primary last time besides Strange and Moore.


221 posted on 06/24/2019 3:15:45 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: marajade

Ivey had a choice. Hold the election ASAFP to bounce the corrupt Luther Strange out of the Senate, or wait for it to be held in 2018 and give the appearance that she approved of the corrupt bargain struck between Bentley and Strange as a payoff. The voters were DEMANDING that election be moved up to 2017 to GET RID of a corrupt Senate appointee. Period.


222 posted on 06/24/2019 3:17:20 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

You don’t even know that Chief Justice is a political appointment. Who are to judge whether or not I can comment on Moore.


223 posted on 06/24/2019 3:17:58 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: marajade

I understand Strange is not running. So that’s good.

A lot of people seem to think that Strange should have been the nominee and he would have won against Jones, including Trump.

The way he got his appointment to the Senate reeks of corruption in the way, as AG of Alabama, he handed the corrupt governor (who was facing impeachment) a get-out-of-jail-free card in exchange for the appointment. There is no question that the Rats would have made a big issue of that in the general. And who knows what Gloria All-red might have come up with by dragging a hundred dollar bill through a trailer park (an old James Carville reference).

Would Strange have won? I’m not so sure, but at least he would have had the full support of the GOPe/swamp in Washington.

And for the record, I am not supporting Moore in the primary. If he wins, of course I would have to support him.

Too bad the GOPe/swamp couldn’t have done the same. They were pissed that the swamp-approved candidate wasn’t the nominee, so they chose the next best thing...a democRat.

Hopefully they won’t try the same stunt this time if their preferred candidate isn’t the nominee.

And Trump had damn well better throw his full support behind that person whoever he happens to be.


224 posted on 06/24/2019 3:18:41 PM PDT by Fresh Wind (The Electoral College is the firewall protecting us from massive blue state vote fraud.)
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To: Mr. K
Did you happen to notice that the people alleging things against him were all flaming liar liberals?

Yes I did, and that's why none of these accusations should have ever been taken seriously.

If all we had to do was bow out every time a democrat made-up something about us we’d all be out of each and every race.

Some people here thinks that the minute the media designates one of our candidates a target, and then unleashes their mass propaganda against him, the party should simply cut him off and let him lose.

I do not agree with these people.

I don’t believe a word of the allegations against him, so your morality statement is a gross and terrible accusation.

You misunderstand me. My point was that people claim to believe in morality being the most important thing, but to some here, only "winning" is important.

But if he can’t overcome a CLEAR forgery... how competent is he at what needs to get done?

I do not understand some people's thinking here. When the liberals have utter and total control over what gets broadcast on television, how is it possible for a man running for office to draw attention to the fact that networks like CNN are deliberately covering up the fact that the yearbook entry is a forgery?

They won't let him on television to make his case. *THEY* control what gets on the air, and they aren't going to let him present his position with the same degree of coverage that they have pushed the lies!

225 posted on 06/24/2019 3:19:47 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: Fresh Wind

Trump won’t if it is Moore.


226 posted on 06/24/2019 3:20:44 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: Political Junkie Too
Exactly right. Too many people do not understand the liberal media role (mostly headquartered in New York city, which voted for Obama by 89%) in manipulating elections.
227 posted on 06/24/2019 3:21:00 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: marajade

Re: Moore hasn’t won statewide

Judge Roy Moore has twice been elected chief justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama.he’s also a west point graduate.


228 posted on 06/24/2019 3:21:10 PM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: marajade

No, it isn’t. Alabama Judges are ELECTED. Moore was ELECTED to the Circuit Court before he was ELECTED STATEWIDE to the Chief Justice position in the 2000 November election to a 6-year term. He ran for and won the seat again in the 2012 November election.

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=7244

Again, that you do not know this shows you cannot make informed comments with respect to Moore, Strange, or Alabama politics.


229 posted on 06/24/2019 3:22:14 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: Sans-Culotte
Seriously, what does a Hollywood entertainer have to do with anything?

Seinfeld (and others) demonstrates the media people were deliberately lying when they claimed to be outraged at the thought of Moore dating 18 and 19 year olds 40 years ago.

They weren't at all outraged. They just wanted to get other people outraged over it so they could win the election.

230 posted on 06/24/2019 3:23:29 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: CarolinaReaganFan

I stand corrected. I thought it was a political appointment. I was wrong.

He still can’t win a senate seat.


231 posted on 06/24/2019 3:23:49 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

My post later in this thread

Moore still won’t win


232 posted on 06/24/2019 3:24:26 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: marajade

The race was basically between Moore and Strange.


233 posted on 06/24/2019 3:25:08 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

There were others though in the primary wasn’t there. Wasn’t a congressman Mo something or other running too?


234 posted on 06/24/2019 3:26:02 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: Bubba_Leroy
Remember Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos"? He urged Republican voters in crossover states to vote for Hillary in 2008. I think he accurately recognized that Obama would be the tougher opponent to beat because of his automatic "Historic first!" advantage.
235 posted on 06/24/2019 3:26:57 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: DiogenesLamp

So that is how Moore won. Independents are allowed to vote in AL primaries. That is on AL.


236 posted on 06/24/2019 3:28:13 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: marajade

And you’ve been corrected on that repeatedly, ma’am. You don’t even know what the situation was in Alabama. You don’t know Moore’s electoral record (despite having been told repeatedly), you don’t appear to know squat regarding Luther Strange, ex-Gov. Robert Bentley, current Gov. Kay Ivey and how this all interacted. You don’t even know why state voters thoroughly rejected President Trump’s endorsement. You are arguing from a point of thorough ignorance, ma’am.


237 posted on 06/24/2019 3:28:58 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: McGavin999
And how much damage can be done by leaving Jones in the senate. If he loves this country, if he wants to keep judges getting approved, he will not run. It’s a selfish act.

It could be seen as that. Yes. I wish he wouldn't, but I understand why he feels he must. Not too many men have endured the humiliation he was forced to receive at the hands of not only the enemy media liars, but also at the hands of his supposed allies like Jeff Flake and Richard Shelby.

I'd be wanting revenge and exoneration too.

238 posted on 06/24/2019 3:29:10 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: fieldmarshaldj

I know enough to know that women have filed sworn affidavits that they were sexually assaulted by Moore.


239 posted on 06/24/2019 3:29:55 PM PDT by marajade (Skywalker)
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To: Conserv
You would swallow the crap the media pushes out.
240 posted on 06/24/2019 3:30:21 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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