Posted on 05/11/2019 7:23:17 AM PDT by Innovative
China held back from immediate retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs, unlike in past rounds, taking time to weigh its options amid uncertainty over how the Chinese economy would weather a full-bore trade conflict.
A failure to break an impasse in talks in Washington on Friday opened a new phase in the trade fight after more than five months of back-and-forth negotiations. This time, some economists and analysts said, Beijing is taking stock of potential economic damage from higher tariffs.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
Maybe there will be an agreement reached afterall. We hope.
Maybe, unlike the Dems, they are smart enough to know when doubling down on losing propositions is not productive....or sane.
The Chinese are almost out of options. About the only card they have left to play is all those T Bills they’re holding. And they’ve been disposing of those steadily over the last few years. Or so I understand.
President Trump holds almost all the cards here. They’re looking for a way to cry Uncle that still saves them face.
L
The Chinese made agreements, then they BACKED OUT of like seven different agreements.
No.
Trump, we do not need agreements with people like this. For real.
Bring US production home.
They know an escalation would cause companies to relocate to other countries.
I think Trump is smart enough to allow them to save face somehow. Trump almost always demands far more than he expects to receive leaving plenty of room to accommodate his adversary so that both sides feel like they got something even as Trump met his expectation.
I also think Trump has assembled the best team around him that I have seen in my lifetime for an administration. Most of the big players on the financial side are like him - very wealthy. They are also older. In the past, administrations of either party have been chock full of people using public service to set themselves up for future high dollar jobs in the financial industry. These guys are working for us and don’t need the money or a future promise of a job. It makes a huge difference!
One has to wonder how much all of this Russia nonsense and the Mueller investigation has hurt Trump in negotiating. In that sense, he (and we) have truly been robbed to borrow a phrase from Levin, of his full Presidency for two years. China is likely watching the 2020 election closely trying to read the tea leaves because it is highly doubtful any other “politician” from either party would hold this line.
Agree - they are running out of runway for their part. One of their big hopes has been that the Mueller investigation would derail Trump or that they could build enough public pressure in the US to force Trump to back off.
All of those things have failed and they likely have too much time before the 2020 election to prevent serious damage.
My guess, they negotiate better terms, but immediately betray their agreement if and when a Democrat or GOPe President gets into office.
And, as I’m sure Trump understands, for the nation of China, “losing” face is worse than losing life, especially when you have an abundant supply of lives that can be “lost”.
And THAT is why the Demonrat party is so desperate to take Trump down.
I’m sure I am missing something but it looks to me like we have the market they need. Doesn’t look to me like they have anything we need. That being the case Trump has all the leverage and all they have is a bad mood.
They know that they have far more to lose than we do; despite the media and left’s hand-wringing.
Chinese Communist Party leadership is a massive bureaucracy filled with factions and infighting.
No one will dare speak publicly at this immediate point, particularly on issues regarding the USA (grade A, tier 1 in their organizational and responsibility chart) so they will all gather, view who is on what side of the issue, and collectively decide their public strategy.
I don’t believe no response is purposeful, its just how their massive, plodding ruling bureaucracy works.
You just said two contradictory things. If we don't need anything from China, then why the need for leverage>
You want US production to move to your home of Vietnam?
“I’m sure I am missing something but it looks to me like we have the market they need. Doesn’t look to me like they have anything we need. That being the case Trump has all the leverage and all they have is a bad mood.”
**********
China has a lot of leverage including info from the OPM Database they stole, and a big number of politicians and business leaders (Chamber of Commerce types) who are likely in their pockets as well. they’ve been hoping that Americans would panic and put pressure on Trump. That hasn’t happened, so they are getting close to the end, I believe.
I really like Lighthizer.
We built up Saddam Hussein to fight Iran and we ended up fighting Iran’s war with Hussein. The Soviets go into Afghanistan, Carter gives $2billion to Pakistan whose leader calls it peanuts. What has Pakistan done for us? Now we’ve built up China to stand up to the Soviets(again) and now the Chicoms can challenge us. Joining the WTO should never have been given. We should have given a big chunk of the manufacturing to India and the P.I.
“About the only card they have left to play is all those T Bills they’re holding. And they’ve been disposing of those steadily over the last few years.”
They bought those T Bills as part of their currency manipulation, which helped depress the Yuan vs the USD. BTW, that option isn’t as available to them now that their debt is 250% or so of their GDP.
Have you noticed how flat the US bond yield curve is now? The global appetite for US debt is strong (other alternatives are not as attractive). The Chinese could sell their bonds and they would be snapped up by the market without much change to our rates. The Yuan would then increase in value, harming them.
I can only note how the article paints the Chinese
as being studied, deliberate, careful, etc, etc, etc.
Whereas the tariffs are not painted in those terms.
The Americans have some very nice watches, high end, very nice.
The Chinese have the time.
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