[Cronos]

I'll explain why it isn't shortsighted:

• The EU isn't going to collapse soon -- the Eurozone may collapse, but the EU isn't - there's too much synergy going on. It would be like saying that the Swiss federation or the Union of American States i.e. the USA will collapse. It's not going to happen in the next couple of decades (beyond that is a guessing game for any nation)
  
  
• There is highly likely not going to be a UK with Scotland post hard Brexit. Just as the EU is composed of nations so too is the UK composed of nations and the Scots made it clear that they will want out if the UK leaves the EU. It will be the UK of England and Wales
  
  
• Even then the US and others will prefer states that have trade ties with the other parts of Europe like Ireland or the newly independent Scotland. Once trade moves, it moves. also there is no particular reason why the US would favor England over Ireland or Poland etc. - I can tell you quite a few American businesses are shifting to Poland from the UK
  
  
• You keep mixing up the EU and the Eurozone - they are distinct
  
  
  even if the Eurozone collapses, the EU doesn't.
  
  
• also for the PIIGS - the Spanish, Irish and Portuguese economies are robustly performing now. The Greek economy has turned the corner while Italy is limping along, but moving.

  In 2008 I would have tentatively agreed that the Eurozone would collapse eminently. Now, it is not that sure

[SteveH]

this (your) argument can be extended further, until there is a one world government. is that what you favor? after all, trade in theory becomes easier. and at least for you it seems to be all about trade. my outlook is not so ... dismal. i don’t think trade agreements invariably follow the path of least resistance. there are cultural ties. currency ties. elasticity of many forms. intangibles such as goodwill. in the future there may be new and relatively strong bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and new transport technologies such as biomass fuels, new oilfield discoveries and exploitation, aerospace transport. you do make some good points. but some of this stuff is to some degree cyclic. nations trade off on expertise and exploitation of natural resources. the thing changing is change itself. if a country suffers a recession, some manufacturing segment will sooner or later swoop in and exploit the resultant cheap labor, resulting in eventually more prosperity again. as for eurozone the major distinction to me is that gb still has the pound and not the euro. i would be inclined to believe that that makes withdrawal from the EU much easier than it would otherwise be.

Now you have not yet gotten back to me why Switzerland is not in the stone age due to being neither in the EU nor the eurozone. Why no gloom and doom from you concerning Switzerland’s fate? Surely it must see the error of its economically backwards ways. It’s a very small country. Much smaller than GB, with or without its satellite entities. Surely if bigger is invariably better then Switzerland’s economy has already hit rock bottom. Along with its banking industry which must have by now completely deserted it for greener pastures. Right?