Brexit: Talks on backstop 'alternative arrangements'

bbc.com ^ | 4 February 2019 | BBC

[SteveH]

and good luck hitching your buggy wagon to an imploding star

[SteveH]

I had completely forgotten Switzerland. Thank you for reminding me about how the Swiss are worried to death for the future of their country since they never got around to join the EU. Foolish Swiss! They are doomed now!

[SteveH]

we all already know how well the EU-non-EU border is working out between Greece and Turkey, aren’t we?

I mean it is not as if any illegal aliens are pelting truck drivers in Calais with rocks or trying to hitch unwanted rides. or invade chunnels. Never fear, the EU to the rescue!

And how much migration has been effectively slowed to a mere dribble on the Mexico-El Salvador-Honduras borders, saving us in the USA to build higher walls, yes?

also see this:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/06/ireland-belgium-new-frontiers-fight-against-illegal-migration/

I view a big part of the remainer uncertainty as being due to the November agreement mandated porous border between Ireland and GB and the demonstrated resolve of the wildcard Ireland government to screw GB by any means available.

[SteveH]

as for our friends in poland, how certain can we be that poland will stay in the EU given its catholic heritage and antipathy towards muslims? and what of the judicial conflict with the EU courts potentially leading to a defacto polexit?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joharper/2018/11/15/polexit-creeps-into-eus-rear-view-mirror/#77e7da3e7c79

are things always static or is it more accurate to view politics as bodies in motion?

[Berlin_Freeper]

Seems to me most of the article you linked to indicates Poland will not leave the EU.

For example:
Thirdly, both Polish society and government share a strong support for EU membership. Over 65 percent of respondents in Poland oppose the idea of their country leaving the EU, with about 17 percent of the opposite view.

[SteveH]

I do not see that as necessarily a given or necessarily even factual. However, what I did primarily intend to convey was expressed by the title itself. I contend that title would not exist if there was not some concern within the EU to lend it at least some support. There are several similar articles from which to choose, all expressing various levels of concern for Poland remaining or leaving the EU. One can take one’s pick of them. The point is that there is some contention at a high level in Poland for the implications of remaining in the EU and that this is leading some to consider the possibility of exiting the EU in some fashion— by hook or crook, as it were.

[Berlin_Freeper]

- Secondly, Poland remains heavily reliant on continued capital inflows and EU structural funds.

Poland has received more than €100 billion ($115 billion) in EU funds that have helped transform the country since it joined the bloc in 2004.

[SteveH]

imho that economic inequity will not last very long. it did not last very long in east germany’s case. this illustrates again the dynamic nature of the EU political scene. Poland is at present heavily catholic. What happens when the the full effect of the muslim diaspora occurs? which way is poland most likely to choose to go? i do not know for certain but i wonder if it is a sure bet that poland will eventually blend in with support for muslim immigration that is in evidence elsewhere in the EU. I do not see the EU as being monolithic but fractured along several potential and actual lines of cultural and economic differences.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Maybe you can get Poland to stop insisting Turkey (82 million Muslims) be allowed to join the EU (which Germany opposes)...

Polish President Duda says hopes Turkey will join EU
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-turkey-eu/polish-president-duda-says-hopes-turkey-will-join-eu-idUSKBN1CM1PN

[Berlin_Freeper]

That’s 82 times what Merkel allowed in due to a war crisis. Refugees that technically get sent back when7if Syria becomes safe.

Unlike 82 million Muslim full EU members.

Lots of farm work in Poland for Muslims.

[Berlin_Freeper]

You mention Poland is a Catholic country.

Same was said about Ireland and look how that recently became.

Poland’s first openly gay politician launches pro-EU party, the Spring Party
https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/04/poland-s-first-openly-gay-politician-launches-pro-eu-party

[Berlin_Freeper]

Catholic Ireland btw
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-90-of-irish-people-want-to-stay-in-eu-poll-reveals-1.3488112

[SteveH]

There are at least two ways of thinking about this:

1. poland’s leaders and the polish public accept EU, shengen, muslim immigration, EU militarization, etc., lock, stock, and barrel

2. there are inconsistencies in the public stances that poland’s leaders and the polish public have collectively adopted, and that these inconsistencies will sooner or later lead to a reversal of political course on where poland stands in the debate about the future of the EU and its member states.

while i prefer the optimistic view (construe that however you please), i am, in the final run, only a single, lowly, unwashed, and uneducated observer in the bleachers. perhaps i will (gasp) somehow be proven wrong by future events.

:)

[SteveH]

A touchy topic. I am half Irish. Ah well, maybe that means I can be only half saddened by current events there. However, the time left for me to go to the pub and pick a brew and a fight is therefore also cut in half (yes?).

:)

[Cronos]

None of what I outlined are scare tactics. Let me repeat them for you:

• British financial services are a large chunk of the economy. They depend on passporting rights to the continent. That's going to end. Banks are already moving stuff to the continent. Once gone, they're gone for good
  
  
• British manufacturing is completely dependent on Western European supply chains - and heavily integrated in that. If trade borders are in place that kills the JIT manufacturing process, so they will shift work to other suppliers on the continent. Work gone doesn't come back - the ecosystem will be gone
  
  
• The Northern Irish problem is not simple - perhaps giving NI to RoI is the way
  
  
• Scots will vote for independence now

If you care to disprove any of these, instead of saying "scare tactics", then please do

[Cronos]

Trade between the UK and the EU will continue unabated after Brexit and you know it. The only difference is now the UK can set their own duty schedules or continue to import under EU rules. NOW IT'S THEIR CHOICE ( FREEDOM).

I would suggest you look at the export and import items of the UK

here Or this pdf file

Look at the goods imported and exported - the items are the same - road vehicles at the top. What does this mean? It means simply that different parts of cars and even cars themselves are shipped back and forth across the channel as part of the Europe wide supply chain

Trade between the UK and the EU will NOT continue unabated -- do you understand the concept of tariffs and of border control checks? If the UK leaves the EU then it no longer has zero tariffs -- it will charge tariffs on things coming from the other parts of the EU and they will charge on things coming from the UK. So take a car - the leather comes from british cows to italian leather workers to french seat manufacturers to german electronics manufacturers and back to the UK for assembly before being shipped to the netherlands for painting. If you have tariffs at each stage, the cost balloons. And the time wasted at borders. THAT is what will be hit. THAT will not continue unabated.

You live in Virginia - imagine if Maryland and put checks and tariffs on stuff coming back and forth - that would disrupt industry and manufacturers would shift to other places.

The UK can set tariff costs but it will only kill their own businesses. And they don't need to IMPORT under EU rules but their exports, the majority of which go to the EU which still need to follow EU rules, no circumventing around that.

[Cronos]

I'll explain why it isn't shortsighted:

• The EU isn't going to collapse soon -- the Eurozone may collapse, but the EU isn't - there's too much synergy going on. It would be like saying that the Swiss federation or the Union of American States i.e. the USA will collapse. It's not going to happen in the next couple of decades (beyond that is a guessing game for any nation)
  
  
• There is highly likely not going to be a UK with Scotland post hard Brexit. Just as the EU is composed of nations so too is the UK composed of nations and the Scots made it clear that they will want out if the UK leaves the EU. It will be the UK of England and Wales
  
  
• Even then the US and others will prefer states that have trade ties with the other parts of Europe like Ireland or the newly independent Scotland. Once trade moves, it moves. also there is no particular reason why the US would favor England over Ireland or Poland etc. - I can tell you quite a few American businesses are shifting to Poland from the UK
  
  
• You keep mixing up the EU and the Eurozone - they are distinct
  
  
  even if the Eurozone collapses, the EU doesn't.
  
  
• also for the PIIGS - the Spanish, Irish and Portuguese economies are robustly performing now. The Greek economy has turned the corner while Italy is limping along, but moving.

  In 2008 I would have tentatively agreed that the Eurozone would collapse eminently. Now, it is not that sure

[Cronos]

wrt the EU being set up to compete - that's correct, it cannot compete with the US model in terms of innovation etc. but the individual states survive better together than apart. I agree that ever closer union doesn't make sense and they should have stopped getting closer in 1996 (pre-Euro), but they work better together than apart

Also, the "implode culturally and politically" - you really should visit different European countries before saying that. With the exception of England, Scotland, Parisian France and Malmo, there is no cultural implosion. England is culturally dead water and so is the Ile-de-France. But the rest is far less cultural implosion than much of the USA

And no, the EU isn't going to implode soon -- neither is the US for that matter

[Cronos]

The EU isn’t imploding or going to implode - neither is the USA. Ever since economic and political statement shows the opposite. You are mixing up the Eurozone and the EU

[Cronos]

Regarding the Swiss -- yous eem to have completely missed out that:

1. The Swiss have full open borders with the EU - more than even the UK - they have Schengen whereas the UK does not
   
2. The Swiss allow free movement of labour, goods, services and capital , including the freedom for EU citizens to choose residence.
   
   
3. Switzerland PAYS into the EU - they've paid 1.3 billion since 2008
   
4. Switzerland follows all the EU rules and regulations and pays into the EU funds but has zero say in the EU parliament or rule making process. Do you really want the UK to have this?