[You responding to my point]: Except the Morrill tariff was not that much higher.
In effect, the two competing tariffs were the old 1846 Walker tariff, passed by Democrats under Southern Democrat President Polk and the newer, lower 1857 Tariff passed by Democrats under Democrat President Buchanan.
Morrill basically returned to 1846 levels.
Not quite true. I suggest that you read, "The Tariff and Secession: Statements on the Tariff as a Major Factor in Sectional Strife and Southern Secession" by Michael T. Griffith, 2014. [Link].
Griffith said that the Morrill Tariff was a "huge" rate increase over the 1857 tariff, apparently in part because of a change in the way the Morrill Tariff calculated the actual rate of tariff compared to the 1846 tariff. He quotes a paper by Phil Magnes that said, "Morrill’s abandonment of the ad valorem schedule in favor of specific duties provided a pretext for raising the tariff on several items well above their 1846 levels.", and Griffith cites Frank Taussig's classic "The Tariff History of the United States" [see page 138] in support of the specific Morrill duties being higher than the 1846 rate.
Which is the real key here -- not the 8% of US imports (circa $30 million) which landed in Confederate ports, but the $200 million in Northern "exports" to the South.
There were calculations back in those days of how much of the imports into the US ultimately went to the South. Those calculations were based on Treasury statistics. Imports might have arrived at the Port of New York and gone into the warehouse system and ultimately had tariff paid on them in New York when they were sold to buyers from the North, West, or South in the Treasury figures. The Treasury figures apparently showed that Southerners bought substantially more than 8 percent of the value of the imports. If the Treasury figures were analyzed correctly, the Southern purchases of imports amounted to a third of the total value of imports to the US. That is a serious chunk of Lincoln's tariff revenue. From an old post of mine:
I found a non-Debow analysis of 1859 that put the figure at 71% [of the value of the entire export of the United States], so it agrees in general. The figure came from: Southern Wealth and Northern Profits by Thomas Prentice Kettell. Published in 1860.
This source also broke down the distribution of imports to regions by consumption. For 1859, it calculates Southern consumption of imports as $106,000,000, Western consumption as $63,000,000, and Northern consumption of imports as $149,000,000. Kettell bases the split among regions on Treasury figures from 1856.
Kettell also estimates that the North sent $240,000,000 in domestic goods (protected by tariff no doubt) to the South in 1859, and that the South paid to the North some $63,000,000 in interest and brokerage.
I note that the calculated figure of Northern produced goods being sold to Southern buyers was higher than the $200 million figure you cited. I also remember that the 1846 tariff was supported by Southern Democrats because it reduced the 1842 tariff.
I have a lot of personal business to attend to starting now for at least the next two or three of weeks. Hopefully when my business is finished, I can resume looking at these threads. Until then, hasta la vista.
The data I've found says otherwise.
Comparing 1846 Walker to 1857 Tariff to 1861 Morrill
With the notable exception of wool, Morrill simply returned rates to their 1846 levels.
Further, my point here is that such minor differences in individual rates were irrelevant compared to the overwhelming fact that international imports & exports would require tariffs be paid twice, for example once when goods landed at New Orleans to Confederates and again when sold in St. Louis in the Union.
Going the other way, raw wool would be tariffed first when imported to Boston then again when wool clothing sold in, say, Charleston.
rustbucket: "If the Treasury figures were analyzed correctly, the Southern purchases of imports amounted to a third of the total value of imports to the US."
I've seen nothing to support your 1/3 number.
Numbers I have seen easily support 20% which is also the Confederate white population and estimated GDP.
And I'd happily allow that some of the difference between 20% and 1/3 amounts to consumption in Union slave-states & regions.
But for anything more I'd need to see specifics.
rustbucket: " found a non-Debow analysis of 1859 that put the figure at 71% [of the value of the entire export of the United States]..."
I'd say 71% is a manipulation & distortion of actual numbers.
It both exaggerates the value of "Southern Products" by including exports from Union states & regions and understates Union exports.
A more honest number is 50% = cotton exports.
rustbucket: " For 1859, it calculates Southern consumption of imports as $106,000,000, Western consumption as $63,000,000, and Northern consumption of imports as $149,000,000."
Only remotely if "Southern" includes Union states and not even then, by far:
The difference between $200 million and $240 million would not change my conclusions.
"$63,000 in interest & brokerage" is relatively small compared to the circa $300 million in total debts to Union banks repudiated by Confederates in 1861.