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But the Morrill rates were more or less irrelevant. What mattered was importers & exporters North or South would now have to pay two tariffs instead of just one.

Sorry, I don't follow your logic. If European goods are shipped directly to Charleston they would pay only the Confederate tariff. On the other hand, perhaps you were assuming that Lincoln was going to stop and board the foreign ships outside of Charleston and demand they pay the US tariff. Perhaps he would have been that bold, but by doing so he might just have opened a two-front war, one with Confederates and one with one or more European countries whose ships had been boarded and basically robbed.

Similarly, how would exports to Europe from the Confederacy have to pay two tariffs? Are you assuming that Lincoln would demand that the Confederacy export everything through the Port of New York and pay a US tariff there? Or maybe Lincoln's ships would stand off the Charleston Harbor and stop ships coming out of the harbor to demand payment? Maybe he was really a Barbary pirate.

In time, the Confederacy would probably open up warehouses in several of their ports to store imported merchandise until it was sold, like the warehouses in New York gave an incentive to importers to land stuff at New York and pay tariff there.

What mattered is the fact that Northern exporters would have to pay a tariff twice.

I'm scratching my head again. What two tariffs would Northern exporters pay? Was Lincoln planning to charge a tariff, or really, an export fee, on things exported from the US? I wasn't aware of these secret plans of Lincoln.

By buying Northern goods whose prices had been boosted by the US protective tariff, Southerners were paying the basic price of the goods plus the amount the Northern manufacturers were able to raise their price because of the US protective tariff. The Northern manufacturers pocketed the selling price; the US government did not. The Southerners would have been paying the basic price of the Northern goods plus the increase in price that the Morrill Tariff enabled the manufacturers to charge. In that sense, the Southerners were paying the US tariff to Northern manufacturers. Cheaper for Southerners to buy European goods even with the Confederate tariff applied.

If the Confederacy imposed their tariff on those Northern goods, which they well might have, then the Confederate people would have been paying the Confederate tariff on Northern goods, plus however much the Morrill Tariff would have enabled Northern manufacturers to increase their prices. Unless Northern manufactures significantly lowered the price of their goods, the Confederate people would have switched to buying European goods which didn't have the cost of US tariffs built into their selling price. The European goods would have been cheaper than Northern goods unless the Northern manufacturers lowered their prices in the South to meet competition.

if Europeans landed their presumably cheaper goods in, say, Confederate New Orleans for sale in Union St. Louis, they'd pay two tariffs, one each to Confederates and the Union. So the individual rates were irrelevant, what mattered was paying twice.

The Confederacy had promised not to interfere with shipping on the Mississippi. The real problem for the North was European goods offloaded at a Southern port, paying the Confederate tariff there, then smuggled into the North and sold for less that the same items imported directly into the US that paid the Morrill Tariff to the US.

Years ago, I saw something that had been printed in the Charleston Newspaper shortly after secession. In the article, they were joyous about how much the city of Charleston was booming, how people were moving in like crazy, how every single hotel was filled to capacity, and every potential warehouse space was leased or bought up, and how there were efforts underway to start massive construction projects building more warehousing space and on and on and on about the massive economic boom which had hit Charleston.

I no longer recall where I had seen that, and I wish I had saved a link to it. People of that era very well understood what was about to happen before Lincoln's blockade.

I've repeatedly said that the danger to the Northern power barons was multifold.

1. Loss of 238 million/year in European trade value.
2. Loss of shipping business.
3. Loss of Southern market for their goods.
4. Loss of Mid Western markets caused by the South importing European goods and selling them all along the vast border and all throughout the Mississippi watershed.
5. Capitalization of competing industries in the South from the increased profits obtained by dumping Northern protectionist policies.
6. Other states joining the economic sphere of the confederacy, and eventually joining it politically.
7. Having to pay for the upkeep of the Federal government themselves, rather than allowing the South to pay for the bulk of it.

To name just a few.

rustbucket: "Sorry, I don't follow your logic.
If European goods are shipped directly to Charleston they would pay only the Confederate tariff."

Right, but suppose that is English wool, and now Charleston's new manufacturers are going to turn it into clothing they will export to the North.
According to this site, tariffs on wool were 30% under 1846 Walker, 24% in 1857 and 37% under Morrill.
So our enterprising Charlestonians would pay first 24% to Confederates then another 37% for exporting to the Union -- twice.
Now for sake of argument suppose the Union reduced its tariff on wool back to 24% does that solve its problem?
Hardly, because there are still two tariffs to be paid the combined result of which is to price products far beyond costs for their alternate sources.

So I used the example of Charlestonians exporting North, the same applies to Bostonians who wanted to export to Confederates.

rustbucket: "On the other hand, perhaps you were assuming that Lincoln was going to stop and board the foreign ships outside of Charleston and demand they pay the US tariff.
Perhaps he would have been that bold, but by doing so he might just have opened a two-front war, one with Confederates and one with one or more European countries whose ships had been boarded and basically robbed. "

Lincoln's cabinet did contemplate collecting Southern tariffs off-shore, to avoid confrontation with Confederates.
I'd suspect any European ships would have been OK paying legitimate tariffs to the recognized US government, not so OK with paying a second time to Confederates.

rustbucket: "Similarly, how would exports to Europe from the Confederacy have to pay two tariffs?"

Same as in my example above -- importing raw materials they'd pay the first time (i.e., 24% on wool), exporting finished goods they'd pay a customer-country's tariffs, second time (i.e., 24% on wool clothing).
By the way, as I read this graph, US, Brit & French tariffs were all roughly the same in 1860.

rustbucket: "Or maybe Lincoln's ships would stand off the Charleston Harbor and stop ships coming out of the harbor to demand payment?
Maybe he was really a Barbary pirate."

The US had no export tariffs, only Confederates ever contemplated it, as allowed by the Confederate constitution.
But your remarks here sound like a justification for starting war against the Union, perhaps Jefferson Davis was also thinking such thoughts in early April 1861?

rustbucket: "In time, the Confederacy would probably open up warehouses in several of their ports to store imported merchandise until it was sold, like the warehouses in New York gave an incentive to importers to land stuff at New York and pay tariff there."

But only for items with Confederate state customers, and such products were already being supported by circa $30 million in 1860 imports landed in future Confederate ports.
The question then becomes, what about the ~$200 million in Northern "exports" to the South?
Would they be replaced by European imports or made in the CSA?
Likely some combination, and the primary beneficiary would be New Orleans, not so much Charleston.

rustbucket: "I'm scratching my head again.
What two tariffs would Northern exporters pay?
Was Lincoln planning to charge a tariff, or really, an export fee, on things exported from the US?
I wasn't aware of these secret plans of Lincoln."

Again, only Confederates contemplated export tariffs, as allowed by their constitution.

rustbucket: "Southerners were paying the US tariff to Northern manufacturers.
Cheaper for Southerners to buy European goods even with the Confederate tariff applied."

Right, but if Southerners then turned imported raw materials into manufactured exports, they'd end up paying a second tariff at the point of sale.
That is the key fact at work here, not some minor difference in the percent of tariff in one country over another.

rustbucket: "The Confederacy had promised not to interfere with shipping on the Mississippi.
The real problem for the North was European goods offloaded at a Southern port, paying the Confederate tariff there, then smuggled into the North and sold for less that the same items imported directly into the US that paid the Morrill Tariff to the US."

"Smuggled" would last about two days -- notice from this map, Federals already collected tariffs in Detroit & Chicago.
It would take just a few days to add more in St. Louis, Cairo, Louisville, Cincinnati & Pittsburgh, etc.

Finally, consider the railroad crossings from Confederate to Union:

Confederates were not going to "export" to the Union without paying the Union tariff, which meant in practical terms very little of such "exports".