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Climate-Modeling Illusions Not Based on Reality
American Thinker ^ | Jay Lehr

Posted on 12/07/2018 5:13:50 AM PST by RoosterRedux

For three decades, global warming alarmists have harassed society with stories of gloom and doom as a result of the carbon dioxide emitted into the air by the burning of fossil fuel. They are exercising precisely what prominent writer H.L. Mencken described as “the whole point of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed and hence clamorous to be led to safety by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”.

In fact, the man-caused global warming or climate change panic may well be the best hobgoblin ever conceived. It has half the world clamoring to be led to safety from climate change without a shred of physical evidence. Every single statement issued to support these fearmongering claims presented in a new 1,500-page report from 13 separate agencies of the federal government by 300 Obama-appointed scientists, has no basis in physical measurements or observations.

What they do have are mathematical equations considered to be models of the Earth’s climate. However, they have only a handful of the hundreds of variables that impact climate and the numbers inserted for the arbitrarily selected variables are little more than guesses. Unfortunately, the U.S. government has financed more than one hundred efforts to model our climate for the better part of three decades, with none coming close to actual results.

The problem real scientists who study climate -- not those paid for bias -- face, is that the public has no clue what a mathematical model actually is, how it works, and what they can and cannot do. Let’s simplify the subject and enlighten all Americans, and the rest of the world’s population as well.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: agw; computermodels
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1 posted on 12/07/2018 5:13:50 AM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: RoosterRedux

Half the world is below average intelligence so this is no surprise.


2 posted on 12/07/2018 5:21:18 AM PST by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: RoosterRedux

I’ve often wondered...if we hadn’t invented computers (and thus, computer models) would “climate change” even be an issue?

There’s a whole lot of “warning” going on, amidst no evidence, EXCEPT “computer models”.

To me, it’s tantamount to the old cartoons of the bearded, robe-clad man, carrying a “The End Is Near” sign on the street corner.


3 posted on 12/07/2018 5:21:39 AM PST by FrankR (Make America Great Again, and Keep It That Way.)
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Good article, but...

I'm pretty sure that the author's claim that the Wall Street Journal brought in chimps to throw darts at a wall to which the Journal's stock page had been taped is apocryphal. Not need to bring in chimps when the editorial staff would produce the same results.

This story was invented by the author of "A Random Walk Down Wall St" (pdf of this book is available at link, the chimp story is on page 15).

4 posted on 12/07/2018 5:22:17 AM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: RoosterRedux

Chimps have better aim.


5 posted on 12/07/2018 5:24:37 AM PST by Kozak (DIVERSITY+PROXIMITY=CONFLICT)
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To: Kozak

Yeah, but how do you convince them to aim or even through a dart.;-)


6 posted on 12/07/2018 5:28:37 AM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: FrankR
I’ve often wondered...if we hadn’t invented computers (and thus, computer models) would “climate change” even be an issue?

It has been one of the many 'Boogie Men' that the press has used for centuries. I have seen articles posted in the US and Europe that eschew everything from Global Warming to the next Ice Age. It is journalistic alarmism, akin to: If it Bleeds, it Leads.

7 posted on 12/07/2018 5:29:42 AM PST by rjsimmon (The Tree of Liberty Thirsts)
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To: RoosterRedux
Yeah, computer models....so correct and reliable.
8 posted on 12/07/2018 5:34:12 AM PST by nesnah (Liberals - the petulant children of politics)
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To: nesnah
And that's just one storm.

Can you imagine how complicated a model would be to predict the temperature change of the entire planet over a long period of time.

These con-men are just insane to think anyone would buy their story.

9 posted on 12/07/2018 5:39:27 AM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: RoosterRedux

Get them to think it’s poop.


10 posted on 12/07/2018 5:45:39 AM PST by HartleyMBaldwin
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To: RoosterRedux
These con-men are just insane to think anyone would buy their story

That's the point, people do buy the stories and ignorance is the reason, not insanity.

11 posted on 12/07/2018 5:51:24 AM PST by MosesKnows
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To: MosesKnows

I didn’t say those who buy their story are insane, I said the con-men (like Al Gore) are insane to believe they can pull this con off.


12 posted on 12/07/2018 6:00:05 AM PST by RoosterRedux
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To: RoosterRedux
I didn’t say those who buy their story are insane, I said the con-men (like Al Gore) are insane to believe they can pull this con off.

Al Gore is now a billionaire.

13 posted on 12/07/2018 6:07:11 AM PST by Interesting Times (WinterSoldier.com. SwiftVets.com. ToSetTheRecordStraight.com.)
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To: RoosterRedux
the con-men (like Al Gore) are insane to believe they can pull this con off

Point taken.

14 posted on 12/07/2018 6:07:15 AM PST by MosesKnows
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To: Interesting Times

Correction: Gore is a mere millionaire 300 times over.


15 posted on 12/07/2018 6:08:01 AM PST by Interesting Times (WinterSoldier.com. SwiftVets.com. ToSetTheRecordStraight.com.)
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To: RoosterRedux

In my location, the weather forecast for the next day is often wrong, yet leftards want me to trust a forecast 100 years from now


16 posted on 12/07/2018 6:28:48 AM PST by mjp ((pro-{God, reality, reason, egoism, individualism, natural rights, limited government, capitalism}))
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To: RoosterRedux

The biggest lie they committed was changing the name to “Climate Change”, rather than what they really mean, which is “Catastrophic, Man-made Global Warming”.

They then use this ambiguous term, Climate Change, to say all you redneck, Bible-Thumping stupid anti-science idiots don’t believe in Climate Change.

No one asserts that the climate doesn’t change. Climate change can mean getting colder, getting warmer, getting wetter or getting drier.

Of course, they ONLY mean getting much warmer and drier, to the point that the polar ice caps melt, fertile lands dry out, and people die in droves. AND—probably their biggest belief—it’s all caused by mankind’s use of fossil fuels.

What is clear, from measurable data, is that the global average temperature has gone up 1 degree Celsius since 1990.

Of course, 1990 as a date is arbitrary but purposefully chosen, from a transitioning colder period to a warmer, to make the rise—the hockey stick Michael Mann invented, look dramatic on a chart.

THEY say the rise is going to continue and we’ll all die.

But is it still rising dramatically, and more important, will it?

That’s where their models come in. They feed data in to the model to get specific results. The data they feed into the model is selected specifically to produce a rapid and catastrophic rise in global temperature and leaves out data (like the Sun) that might mitigate such a rise.

And here we are, us ignorant Republican, religious zealots and haters of science, uneducated, primitive, unsophisticated FReepers who simply won’t go along with the hysteria.


17 posted on 12/07/2018 6:30:41 AM PST by Alas Babylon! (Boycott ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC and NBC!)
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To: RoosterRedux
Accurately modeling the climate of the planet and projecting that modeling for any long-term predictions is simply not possible.

Look up "sensitive dependence upon initial conditions". It is the foundation of chaos theory. It is actual science and math, and shows conclusively that you can't make predictions beyond a fairly limited horizon.

We've known this for decades, yet this fraud still goes forward because

18 posted on 12/07/2018 8:30:54 AM PST by zeugma (Power without accountability is fertilizer for tyranny.)
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To: RoosterRedux

“In fact, the man-caused global warming or climate change panic may well be the best hobgoblin ever conceived.”

Well, actually it wasn’t quite good enough that’s why they came up with man-caused climate change.


19 posted on 12/07/2018 8:32:29 AM PST by aquila48
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To: RoosterRedux
For three decades, global warming alarmists have harassed society with stories of gloom and doom as a result of the carbon dioxide emitted into the air by the burning of fossil fuel.

AND NOT ONE of the alarmists 'doom and gloom' predictions has come true. NOT ONE.

20 posted on 12/07/2018 8:41:16 AM PST by GOPJ (Term limit DC bureaucracies - a permanent unelected 'ruling class' is a threat to our freedom.)
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