Posted on 11/29/2018 8:21:05 AM PST by Liberty7732
With thousands of immigrants trying to illegally enter the United States from Mexico — all eyes are focused on Tijuana right now, but the crossings continue along the normal stretches, too — a recent Yale study is actually making a powerful case for building the wall.
It wasn’t supposed to. But kudos to honest researchers.
The study by two Yale professors and an instructor at MIT Sloan School of Management found that the number of undocumented immigrants (illegal aliens in legal, non-PC terms) living in the United States is double what has been estimated and used continually in the media.
Double, as in 22.1 million illegals living here. The number widely used in the media, in studies and in conversations is generally around 11 million. This has implications for the entire debate, because it means that everything from the numbers coming in during good economic times (now) to the costs to American taxpayers are much, much higher than what has been estimated.
Researchers Edward Kaplan, Jonathan Feinstein and Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi used a more full method to determine that the common estimate of 11 million immigrants is likely way off base.
“Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” said Kaplan, a professor of operations research at Yale School of Management. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was…higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.”
So obviously, these researchers were actually wondering if the 11 million number was too high. They were expecting to get a smaller number.
Fellow Yale researcher Feinstein expanded on that point. “There’s a number that everybody quotes, but when you actually dig down and say, “What is it based on?” you find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach.”
When researchers say an approach has “some difficulties,” they mean it is flawed, poorly done and so probably yielding wrong results. Difficulties.
Yale Insights wrote about the research:
“The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management. That made the researchers curious—could they reproduce the number using a different methodology?”
The three researchers used data from deportations and visa overstays, as well as demographic data like death rates and immigration rates, to get a better number. Their approach benefits from being logical.
“’The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple,” Kaplan said. There don’t appear to be any “difficulties” with that broad concept. He went on: “The analysis we’ve done can be thought of as estimating the size of a hidden population. People who are undocumented immigrants are not walking around with labels on their foreheads.”
The study reported that the greatest growth of illegal immigrants was in the 1990s and early 2000s and that the population has remained fairly steady since 2008.
That simply coincides with economic activity in the United States. A strong economy in the 1990s and up to 2007 (with one short exception) caused an ongoing influx that has only partially been captured. Then eight years of economic stagnation under President Obama made the risk and travails of illegally coming here less worth it and the population stabilized.
These trend lines aligning with the economy suggest that the number is climbing again as the economy is booming. This increasing number would be in addition to the thousands that are part of the migrant caravan, and ultimately would swamp those numbers.
The trends in the new study are the same as the earlier one, but the totals are vastly greater, Fazel‐Zarandi said. “They are capturing part of this population, but not the whole population.” Something like half of it, apparently.
The researchers went to great lengths to say the study has no political agenda, because they know of course such data is ultimately a political weapon. And remember, they originally expected the 11 million number to be lower — not double.
“Our purpose is just to provide better information,” Feinstein said. “This paper is not oriented towards politics or policy. I want to be very clear: this paper is about coming up with a better estimate of an important number.”
Being that he is on a liberal Ivy League campus where students are empowered to bully professors into submission or out of a job, he’s smart to really reinforce the point — if he wants to keep his job and live peaceably.
He added: ‘We wouldn’t want people to walk away from this research thinking that suddenly there’s a large influx happening now. It’s really something that happened in the past and maybe was not properly counted or documented.”
Right. They have been here all along, and Americans have been supporting them and some have been materially hurt by them, all along.
What you can walk away from this paper with is illegal aliens are likely costing taxpayers twice as much money as was previously suggested — and that number may one day be found to have “difficulties.”
You can also walk away from this study with the reality that we desperately need to secure our border with Mexico, with a wall in many places and enhanced terrain in others. But the barrier needs to be complete.
It turns out that when you make America great again the world agrees that it’s great and wants to come along for the ride!
Yale?
Ha,ha.
If Democrats and GOPe get control and give them amnesty I think we’ll find the number closer to 30 million than 11 million.
First they came for Tijuana, and we did nothing.
Next they came for San Diego, and still we did nothing.
What is the future of California? The future is: No wall, no California.
"Florida and Texas are about five years away from turning solid blue. Trump was our last chance. After this, the country is never going to elect a Republican president again."—Ann Coulter, TRUMP'S GREAT WALL BECOMES TRUMP'S GREAT STALL
Regarding the wall, forget about problems with undocumented Democrats. (Ok, don't forget about problems with undocumented Democrats.)
Patriots need to support Pres. Trump in repurposing the wall to protect us more from our own evil Democrats than from undocumented Democrats.
From related threads regarding Pres. Trump's campaign for 2020 elections … Alleged ballot box rigging by pirate (my word) Democrats for 2018 midterm elections had been predicted.
Researcher claims a ‘TSUNAMI’ of voter fraud coming in 2018 midterms
In addition to building wall, Pres. Trump needs to do the following things before 2020 elections to uphold the president's oath to insure constitutional integrity at the ballot box imo.
Article II, Section 1, Clause 8: Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:--"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States [emphasis added]."
First, Trump needs to put a stop to unconstitutional (imo), winner-take-all state electoral vote laws by enforcing the 12th Amendment.
From the 12th Amendment:
"The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice- President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate [emphasis added]; …"
Trump also needs to enforce Section 2 of the 14th Amendment so that only citizens can vote. He needs to do this by requiring people to present citizenship / photo ID cards before being allowed to vote. Such cards need to be scannable to facilitate “vision impaired” Democratic ballot box officials.
From the 14th Amendment:
”14th Amendment, Section 2. Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens [emphasis added] twenty-one years of age in such State."
Corrections, insights welcome.
Patriots should also listen to Dan Borgino’s 37 minute video concerning Mueller investigation.
Dan Bongino - Obama, Mueller and the Biggest Scam in American History
Nearly 400,000 were caught FY 2018 alone. How many actually showed up for any kind of immigration hearing? Less than 10%? How many are actually deported? Less than 5%?
That also doesn't take into account those who are NOT apprehended.https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration
Next they came for San Diego, and still we did nothing.
What is the future of California? The future is: No wall, no California."
California hasn't been the main concern for several years now (in terms of new illegal immigration).
No wall, no Texas. No wall, no Arizona:
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/usbp-sw-border-apprehensions
And of course, they don't stop in the border states.
| Total Apprehensions | |
|---|---|
| Sector | FY 2018 |
| Big Bend TX | 8,045 |
| Del Rio TX | 15,833 |
| El Centro CA | 29,230 |
| El Paso TX | 31,561 |
| Laredo TX | 32,641 |
| Rio Grande TX | 162,262 |
| San Diego CA | 38,591 |
| Tucson AZ | 52,172 |
| Yuma AZ | 26,244 |
| USBP Southwest Border Total | 396,579 |
TEXAS apprehensions FY 2018 - 250,342
ARIZONA apprehensions FY 2018 - 78,416
CALIFORNIA apprehensions FY 2018 - 67,821
Set up a fund for all welfare and welfare like support. Once it is expended there is no more. It will surface a realistic estimate of what it is costing the US and people will be more careful as to how many have their hands in the pot.
bkmk
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