Man that is so simple....corporations and stocks ALWAYS concern themselves no longer than 1 or 2 quarters.
The benefit of trade war with China = $400 Billion EVERY YEAR available in USA for manufacturing jobs. But it takes long time to build factories and hire and train productive workers.
In short, trade war with China will be pain for a year or two, but yuge long term benefits lasting many decades.
Also think of this...who does trade war hurts the most? It is the likes of Steve Forbes who benefit by bigger profits by owning stocks in multi-national corporations who have moved manufacturing to cheap labor countries.
Steve Forbes worries about Steve Forbes first, not the 90% ordinary middle class workers who have lost better paying manufacturing jobs.
corporations and stocks ALWAYS concern themselves no longer than 1 or 2 quarters.
I would not go THAT far, but, it is true that stocks often concern themselves only 1 or 2 quarters, and many corps put too much weight on the short term.
I also agree many of the short term effects of a trade war are negative. However, not all negative effects are short term. It appears the global economy is slowing down, for a variety of reasons, including, IMO, increasing failures of socialism, among other things. A major trade war can add to that slowdown in both depth and length (time). I don't presently expect such a global recession or depression, costing the US that $400 billion per year that you speak of, to occur soon. But, I can't rule it out, and if it occurs, its duration could be several years, particularly depending on who is in charge of the US Gov't after 2020... I support Trump's policies, but I also recognize the (often necessary) risks.