Dem Torres Small wins.
Crap.
Yep.
I figured it would be like that when Dona Ana County wouldn’t report the vote last night like every other county did. Needed time to manufacture enough votes.... Notice that the percentages for each almost exactly swapped between this morning and this afternoon.
Horrible campaign by Harrell (and nearly every other Republican in NM races). Way to turn a reliable ‘red’ district blue.
Pearce should have stayed where he was....
Based on KKOB AM this morning, Torres Small made a 5,000-vote swing with 8,000 absentee ballots. She was behind by 2,000, and went on to win by 3,000. Bovine excrement.
If they counted all 8,000, to take a 3,000 vote lead after being behind by 2,000 votes, she'd have had to take 81.25% of those ballots (R had X. D had X-2,000 on Tuesday night).
A 2,000-vote deficit leaves 6,000 total ballots after bringing her even with the R.
Then D goes ahead by 3,000. From 6,000, that leaves 3,000. Out of that 3,000, R and D split evenly in order for D to maintain 3,000-vote lead. That means the D got 6,500 out of 8,000 votes from those absentee ballots that were left. That's 81.25% in a county where she averaged around 68%.