Posted on 11/06/2018 6:12:19 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Totals for Florida early vote.
Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 63,496
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 85,849
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 22,353
At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 96,450
Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.
Ballots have not been counted yet.
I know the Rs have not cannibalized in my example
I hope that is the trend.
Schale “When you factor in where the three big D counties not in this data: Orange, Dade, and Palm Beach, I think we are still headed to ~ +2 GOP, which is where it has felt like it was going for awhile.
But just knock doors or make calls - it’s a better use of time.”
+2 GOP. Hey that’s my call for the state (for Scott).
Captain Obvious. We just have to keep the heat dialed up. It’s feeling like 2016 - not a 100% but it definitely has that feel.
R voters are voting heavy and hard right now for the most part.
Ok sorry. Just making sure. That was the gist of what Schale was saying the other day - that of the remaining certain voters (voting in 4 out of the previous 4 elections) who had not voted EV/VBM, a full 51% of those were Reps.
That suggested we were not cannibalizing and your example there seems to confirm that theorem.
That’s where Rich has FL +2 (but “could” go +3). If it is that high, that’s a hold for FL26, 27 and a D-R flip for 13. That’s the main thing.
Scott’s a win, and this would pull DeSantis over.
No apologies necessary, just wanted to clarify that is what I was trying to imply. Hopefully Ds cannibalized and Rs did not.
Also, per Frank Luntz
Final #Florida poll from the @Trafalgar_Group, the only polling firm that had Trump winning Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016. #ElectionDay
Governor
• Ron DeSantis: 50%
• Andrew Gillum: 46.6%
Senate
• Rick Scott: 49%
• Bill Nelson: 47.3%
This “makes” sense. We’ll see if it pans out.
Darn. If you were a democrat you could. Lol. You are so great to bring a person who was unsure but got her to the polls to guarantee a great vote. Thank you. As far as today goes, I think you are in great company. It seems quite a few voted early.
I sent a DM to Richard Baris about Bay. He said it always comes in late. On another note, shared the link to your spreadsheet and he said he could show you how to automate with a json file using an API.
That is mostly Greek to me but nice offer from him.
If he could do that, that would be amazing! Probably too late to use today but I would definitely use it next go around.
Oh yeah, he said...after this is all over, lol.
Ravi, you have any insight into Orange County? Their website shows they are at 101,400 today which is 72%. It seems like they could surpass 2016 ED.
God help us if Miami-Dade and Palm Beach hit these numbers.
Let’s get the percentages right.
You’re referring to a percentage of 2016 votes in a particular county on this election day compared to 2016 election day. Important of course.
My main concern is turnout overall of the county vis-a-vis the other counties. Orange county currently is showing a 52.49% overall turnout for the county. It’s not bad but way below the red counties. Even hurricane hit Bay county is at 50% turnout.
Hope that makes sense.
https://www.ocfelections.com/VoterTurnout/VoterTurnout.aspx
Your spreadsheet is making its way around the internet.
I was just on predictit looking at Florida Senate latest odds.
I saw your spreadsheet link posted in the comments section.
Well jokes on them I’m just an idiot adding up numbers. But wait .. you can legitimately bet on this stuff? Oh no
Right now Nelson is 59% - 41% favorite.
floridPolitics.com guy
“There is no blue wave.”
ok... Does he want to make the next statement? There is a small red wave possibly...
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