Posted on 11/05/2018 7:09:09 PM PST by yesthatjallen
FiveThirtyEight founder and election forecaster Nate Silver on Monday offered his final projections for the midterm elections, arguing that a number of factors are conspiring to make Republican chances of keeping the majority in the House "fairly slim."
Silver gave Democrats a roughly 86 percent chance of winning the majority in the House. The party must pick up at least 23 seats on Tuesday to retake the majority.
"Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans," Silver wrote.
Silver said Republicans still stand a slim chance of retaining the House majority thanks to a strong economy and favorably drawn districts. The latter factor, Silver wrote, forces Democrats to win the popular vote by at least 5 percentage points to secure the majority.
Democrats, however, are aided by President Trumps low approval ratings, strong fundraising numbers, a large number of Republican retirements and a historical precedent of the presidents party losing ground in the midterms, Silver noted.
"Democrats have been dealt a good hand and have done a great job of playing it, maximizing their number of opportunities to make seat gains," Silver wrote. "Theres still a chance about a 15 percent chance that their voters wont turn out in the numbers they need, and theyll fall a few seats short."
"But it would require polling and a lot of other data to be fairly wrong, and it would defy a lot of historical precedent as to what happens in midterm elections under unpopular presidents," he added.
Republicans have a more favorable path in the Senate, where the party stands a roughly 80 percent chance of retaining the majority, Silver projected. There are nine GOP senators up for re-election this year, compared to 26 Democrats, 10 of which are running in states Trump won in 2016.
Republicans currently hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate.
‘Dems might win but they might lose.’ - Nate Silver
Wussy boy
Herald of the demoncats
Is running for COVER
Dear Nate,
Always remember, what can go wrong, will go wrong,
and if you don’t believe it will, you won’t be prepared
when it does.
Also it’s not Tuesday, it’s CHOOSEday!
“Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans,” Silver wrote.
Really, what planet do these people live on?
They win Cal. with the illegal voters.
Actually, that range is where Republicans usually gain seats. At least that has been my observation
They’re the ones who typically
bitch about bad weather. Climate
change and all that. They blame
this untimely front on Trump.
They’re not smart enough to get
the umbrella out of the closet.
They have managed to uneducate the young, so they believe anything they tell them. Don’t look behind the curtain, don’t read anything, don’t ask questions just look at me and I promise I will not lie to you
Yep...that's their new talking point.
Damn....in what Bizarro World does a raging economy equate to a “slim chance”?
He keep betting the farm on this. Someone should of pointed out to him how much Hillary outspent Trump in 2016
I think it would take more than a couple of things going wrong to stop a ‘BLUE WAVE’
1. LACK OF A PLAN
2. SHEETY CANDIDATES
that’s 2
Nate Silver’s model gave Trump ~30%. HuffingtonPost was the one who said Trump has ~4% chance. Almost all predictors were wrong, but his model predicted the highest chance for Trump. I think people are making fun of him over others, who were more wrong, because he looks like a mega-dork.
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