Posted on 11/05/2018 6:16:41 PM PST by Ravi
More than 35 million americans early votes have been counted - well more than the total cast in the 2014 midterms. The NBC news data analytics Lab, using voter file data from TargetSmart, found that 35,526,881 early votes were counted nationwide as of Monday. In states that have early voting, 42 percent of voters are Republican, 41 percent are Democrats, and 17 percent have either independent or have another party affiliation.
Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas. In Nevada, Democratic-affiliated voters have outpaced their Republican counterparts.
The total early vote as of Election Day in 2016, a presidential election year when turnout is much higher, was 46,314,207
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
You can’t tell for sure how people vote by their previous affiliation.
That’s why there are state legislatures. To keep rogue governors in check.
IIRC, they really sucked in 2014.
Gollum may be forced to step down if he wins and is later indicted, so who knows if his Lt. Gov. is better or worse?
Obviously this election is more comparable to 2016 and not 2014 wouldn’t you say?
I would like it to be more like 2014 with an R+ edge. We’ll see.
JJ has this. Not so sure about the rest of the GOP. My husband and I think JJ is gonna run with this one.
Iowa-1 (Blum):
11/07/16 - D: 66,399(43.2%) R: 46,951(30.6%) I: 39,735(25.9%)
11/05/18 - D: 55,089(45.0%) R: 38,123(31.7%) I: 28,340(23.2%)
Blum won by 7.6% in 2016. He has a little leeway here. Since 2016, D’s up 1.8%, R’s up 1.1% and I’s down 2.7%. I think this is close but incumbency helps and the Dem is only marginally better compared to 2016. Plus the Indies in Iowa usually swing left so fewer Indies is good overall also. Dems cannot assume this pick-up at all.
H.A. Goodman’s analysis: https://youtu.be/AUhWVA8OJjQ
I like this analogy. Plain and simple but connective.
If a Republican doesnt like Trump, all they have to do is not vote and let the blue wave takeover. Thats what all the polls are telling us. They sure do not have to go to the trouble of early voting.
These fake polls showing massive democrat wins are imtended to suppress the GOP vote. Hopefully they will backfire.
Senate was NEVER in play... only question has AlWaYS been just how many seats would republicans gain
The vanguard has opened the battle. Today, the main body arrives!
I’m looking forward to the returns this evening!
Excellent!
I agree.
In 2016, a lot of right leaning people had no idea Trump would turn out to be:
1) a genuine conservative - a promise keeper.
2) a strong America First world leader
3) a skilled tactician - a winner
4) a Republican Godsend, with coattails.
5) the hardest working POTUS ever.
Trump has manuevered the Democrats into taking politically untenable positions re the border and jobs. With the Kavanaugh fiasco, Trump demonstrated both his own fierce loyalty, and the importance of a Republican majority - with the whole world watching.
There have to be many rightwingers who sat on the fence in 2016 because they didn’t know Trump - and now they are eager to show their belated support. On the other hand, this is the midterms - historically a long shot for the incumbant party to avoid huge losses.
I think Republicans retaining the house will take a miracle, but Trump may just pull it off.
I hope tomorrow is NOT the day when the “experts” look back and realize how foolish trying to make predictions from early voting data is.
Of course it’s the only hard data of any kind we have until election night, with the only other option prior to then being to discuss the bias of various media polls we disagree with.
But what nobody can possibly KNOW is how many Republican early voters selected the Democrat, and vice-versa, nor can anyone possibly know how so-called independents voted.
EV looks so good for our side compared to 2016, which turned out to be a very good year, but EV going even better in 2018 doesn’t necessarily mean “muh RED WAVE!!!1!!!”.
It would be great if it DOES mean that in House races (we’re all fairly confident about the Senate overall at this point) and we don’t get slaughtered there, so that’s why I’m hoping tomorrow is not the day when the EV experts on the right are all red-faced.
I’s in Iowa lean pretty blue, FYI.
ok good to know. fewer of them this year.
ok good to know. fewer of them this year.
Are you able to find the Miami-Dade voter / Broward voter update pages? I found it for the other 3 counties I’m tracking.
Bay County (I estimate: 89% voted Trump); went 71% Trump in 2016 - note Hurricane Striken so turnout has been suppressed
2016 Turnout: 25,579 Election Day (28.81%); 43,963 EV (49.51%), 18,952 VBM (21.34%)
https://www.bayvotes.org/Election-Info/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout
Brevard County (I estimate: 55% voted Trump): went 57% Trump in 2016
2016 Turnout: 109,623 Election Day (34.14%), 118,427 EV (36.88%); 92,708 VBM (28.87%)
https://www.votebrevard.com/Election-Information/Election-Day-Turnout
Broward County
2016 Turnout: 213,112 Election Day (25.24%); 426,592 EV (50.53%), 202,904 VBM (24.03%)
Miami-Dade County
2016 Turnout: 217,803 Election Day (21.60%); 476,001 EV (47.20%), 311,597 VBM (30.90%)
Santa Rosa County (I estimate: 63% went Trump); went 74% Trump in 2016
2016 Turnout: 32,823 Election Day (36.67%); 37,197 EV (41.56%), 19,143 VBM (21.39%)
https://www.votesantarosa.com/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout1
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.