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Florida Early Vote update, 11/05/2018
https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion ^ | 11/05/2018 | self

Posted on 11/05/2018 6:15:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

Totals for Florida early vote.

Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 62,471

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 87,160

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 24,689

At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 88,012

Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.

Ballots have not been counted yet.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; fl; fl2018; florida
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To: Ravi

Your lips, God’s ears.


101 posted on 11/05/2018 1:02:11 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: TrumpCoat

Yep I saw that too...Exactly. Real-time if fun if it goes that way again.


102 posted on 11/05/2018 1:07:00 PM PST by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Current status: Kid on Christmas Eve.


103 posted on 11/05/2018 1:18:15 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: ground_fog

No recounts because the Dems will win....Desantis or bust for FL Governor...please God let Desantis/Scott win!!!!


104 posted on 11/05/2018 1:22:16 PM PST by yield 2 the right
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To: Ravi

Thanks for the link. I will see if I can do a prediction on what we can expect the final turnout to be like if the early voting / in-person voting are at the same ratios on Election Day, tonight.


105 posted on 11/05/2018 1:26:38 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: TrumpCoat

That would be nice. I’m just going with my gut of 7.8 or higher for turnout (D,R,I). As far as R turnout, my goal is to hit 90% of R turnout in 2016.


106 posted on 11/05/2018 1:32:10 PM PST by Ravi
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To: LS

Hurricane hit Bay County (Red) has now hit overall turnout of 40% (catching up with other counties).

Even better, R turnout of R registered voters in Bay is almost at 50%.

https://www.bayvotes.org/


107 posted on 11/05/2018 1:36:04 PM PST by Ravi
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To: Ravi; LS

Final NV numbers: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrQjdi8VsAAa4pq.jpg

I was expecting a REP deficit of 21,666 in my last estimate.

Deficit came in at 21,559. So the last 5 rural counties came in a bit better than expected. That is 3.4% DEM lead.

I’ve been using a 3.1% goal for Heller to win on Election day. Not quite there, but still winnable.

There has to be a lot of Washoe REP voters who didn’t vote early. They need to turn out in mass tomorrow.


108 posted on 11/05/2018 2:22:51 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Using numbers from https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics , it seems Washoe already exceeded D in percentage in early votes in 2016. You can double check.

Washoe -
2018 R turnout - 49,256; 2016 EV 57,565 (85.6% of 2016)
2018 D turnout - 47,495; 2016 EV 58,538 (81.4% of 2016)

Clark -
D turnout - 191,151; 2016 EV 243,556 (78.5% of 2016)
R turnout - 143,947; 2016 EV 170,290 (84.5% of 2016)

Overall, they look pretty favorable to me. Remember Heller is an incumbent. If this were an open seat I’d be worried.


109 posted on 11/05/2018 2:47:17 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: TrumpCoat

I think you have the Ds and Rs reversed for Washoe???


110 posted on 11/05/2018 3:00:00 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: TrumpCoat

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrQjdi8VsAAa4pq.jpg


111 posted on 11/05/2018 3:00:46 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Ravi

I think the Dem crossover and Indies for that matter will surprise. Surely there are a few who are sane left.


112 posted on 11/05/2018 3:01:16 PM PST by rlbedfor
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Oops. You’re right. Yeah, Washoe is definitely bucking Clark’s trend.

Washoe -
2018 R turnout - 47,495; 2016 EV 57,565 (82.5% of 2016)
2018 D turnout - 49,256; 2016 EV 58,538 (84.1% of 2016)

Clark -
D turnout - 191,151; 2016 EV 243,556 (78.5% of 2016)
R turnout - 143,947; 2016 EV 170,290 (84.5% of 2016)


113 posted on 11/05/2018 3:22:21 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
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To: TrumpCoat

In FL, Republicans gained about 1700 votes during panhandle EV today. VBM has been a bit of a wash, Republicans up 500 votes but no Lake, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach or Sarasota yet. So probably a small loss.

We will trail ~25k going into tomorrow.


114 posted on 11/05/2018 5:35:54 PM PST by Methos8 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UdXilkzGqvvdKBN9Vwe8er64JeycQbLxKGxFy9lTlE/edit#gid=2105128)
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To: Methos8

11/6 morning update

Alachua doesn’t have updated mail.
St. Lucie hasn’t updated since yesterday

EV+Mail D+22,353

Looks like we hold them slightly under 25k

GO VOTE


115 posted on 11/06/2018 4:50:26 AM PST by EaglesTTT
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