Final NV numbers: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrQjdi8VsAAa4pq.jpg
I was expecting a REP deficit of 21,666 in my last estimate.
Deficit came in at 21,559. So the last 5 rural counties came in a bit better than expected. That is 3.4% DEM lead.
I’ve been using a 3.1% goal for Heller to win on Election day. Not quite there, but still winnable.
There has to be a lot of Washoe REP voters who didn’t vote early. They need to turn out in mass tomorrow.
Using numbers from https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics , it seems Washoe already exceeded D in percentage in early votes in 2016. You can double check.
Washoe -
2018 R turnout - 49,256; 2016 EV 57,565 (85.6% of 2016)
2018 D turnout - 47,495; 2016 EV 58,538 (81.4% of 2016)
Clark -
D turnout - 191,151; 2016 EV 243,556 (78.5% of 2016)
R turnout - 143,947; 2016 EV 170,290 (84.5% of 2016)
Overall, they look pretty favorable to me. Remember Heller is an incumbent. If this were an open seat I’d be worried.
