Florida Early Vote update, 11/03/2018

https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion ^ | 11/03/2018 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Totals for Florida early vote.

Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 67,540

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 10,638

Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 56,902

At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 5,280

The REP lead has ranged from 53K to 75K over the past week.

Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.

Ballots have not been counted yet.

[Dave W]

I was thinking the same thing as you. It would appear that all counties should have the same EV days and hours.

[SpeedyInTexas]

A few FL counties didn’t report in time for my posting this morning.

With the latest Fl Election Division website update, R lead has increased from 56,902 to 58,661. Another 1700 votes to the lead.

Yesterday we were at 58,530. So really no decrease in our lead from yesterday. 2 years ago, we lost 7k in that day.

The 1700 votes will get rolled into tomorrows posting.

[Dave W]

I think VA is lost anyway. Hillary won VA by 250,000 votes and it wasn’t close. However, Crystal City is just minutes from DC. There will be a lot of workers that live in DC and Maryland, too. I’m living in northern VA, and my experience is that while there are many dems in northern VA, the more hard core dems like living in MD and DC.

[SpeedyInTexas]

NV update.

Some rural counties updated. Now at 3.5% margin. Its a small difference. But feels much better to me than 3.7%

Statewide
DEMs 260,867. (41.4%)
REPs 238,694. (37.9%)
DEMs lead by 22,173 (3.5%)

Still have 5 rural counties to report. So might get down to 3.4%...

[LS]

Yeah, important to chip away. This gets down under 22,000 Heller will have a much easier chance.

[LS]

How many more votes do you think are in those counties?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Estimate (in person and absentee)

Elko - 400
Esmeraldo - 7
Mineral - 0
Pershing - 60
White Pine - 40

---

507.

That would make it: 22,173 - 507 = 21666

Friday had big turnout in all counties, except one: Lyon. It went from 1018 Thursday to 258 on Friday. At the same time other counties doubled their turnout. Wonder if 258 is wrong and gets changed? That could make a meaningful difference.

Take a look at Lyon here for Friday: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

[Ravi]

Think Lyon only had 1 polling station open. We’ll get them on Tuesday.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Why do Republicans do this to ourselves?

Don’t they know “internet people” are watching these number!!!

[LS]

What do you think it would get changed to.

[LS]

What do you think it would get changed to.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Ravi thinks only 1 polling station was open in Lyon. So 258 is the correct number.

Everyone else has to vote Tuesday.

So a best guess is 21,666 after the other rurals report.

[Methos8]

FL update with results through end of day 11/3.

VBM - we may lose a bit on the VBM. Maybe 3,000-5,000 today. VBM is what it is at this point. Anyone can look at the outstanding ballots and see we were going to give up a bit. Moving on.

EV - well Saturday numbers are coming in. We started the day DOWN about 9,500 once all the counties actually reported. Right now with the counties I check on, we’re down 24,300 so we lost about 15,000 today. Unfortunately this does not include Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. No idea how many votes yet in Miami-Dade but Palm Beach posted 16,000 (consistent with Friday). I am assuming Miami-Dade comes in consistent with their Friday as well.

It’s looking like we will go into tomorrow up 60k VBM and down 30k on EV, or up 30k overall.

[Methos8]

Counties that were scheduled to be open for EV tomorrow with some projection.

Bay - 4,000 votes, +1,600 spread
Broward - 30,000 votes, -11,100 spread
Charlotte - 2,500 votes, +800 spread
Duval - 16,000 votes, -1,200 spread
Hillsborough - 16,000 votes, -1,200 spread
Leon - 6,000 votes, -1,800 spread
Miami-Dade - 30,000 votes, -5,800 spread
Orange - 15,000 votes, -3,300 spread
Osceola - 4,000 votes, -700 spread
Palm Beach - 15,000 votes, -2,500 spread
Pinellas - 6,000 votes, -500 spread
Polk - no major impact
Seminole - no major impact
St. Lucie - 4,000 votes, -400 spread
Volusia - no major impact

Looking like around -25,000 EV for us tomorrow. Building off my last post, we sit +30,000 going into tomorrow, -25,000 EV tomorrow. I think this along with some continued VBM erosion is looking like a turnout standstill heading into Election Day.

[LS]

We should still have several thousand backed up from Panhandle both VBM or “vote shifted” to ED.

I’m guessing we go into Election Day tied or up a few thousand, meaning about 95,000 ahead of 2016. Using 70% of that (2018 % of 2016) we should win by 150,000-200,000.

Baris says that indies have started to break to Rs because of the invasion caravan. Even 1 point now & this will be in the bag.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Thanks. At least we are prepared.

Just being even this year means 96k improvement.

I’ll take it.

[Ravi]

Alright. I’ll take it.

[janetjanet998]

Huge day for the Dems ..are some of the republican stations closed on Saturday too and not just Sunday?

EV lead for Dems now 37,585

REPS still lead by 28,036 in the combo EV/Mail

[TrumpCoat]

I know you guys don't do polls (nor should you), but with AZ having 80% of their vote in and many of their statistics published, I decided to peek at one of the polls to see if I could find a possible modeling error.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-arizona-senate-poll-10-31-2018 - this Fox poll shows McSally down by 1.

Now, AZ has good statistics on their website, and they show 21.5% of ballots are produced by those 45 and under.

Reverse-engineering the Fox internals, they are using a model where ~36% of voters are under 45. That is quite the discrepancy unlikely to be made up on Election Day.

[TrumpCoat]

If my algebra is right, then in order for the Fox News poll to be accurate (36.5 of all votes being cast by under-45 when 80% are already in, and only 21.5% of those are cast by under-45), you'd have to solve for x in 0.215*0.80+0.2*x=0.36.

I get 94%. So either there is a serious polling error going on, or we are to believe that 94% of all votes on Election Day in AZ will be cast by under-45s.