Florida Early Vote update, 11/03/2018

https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion ^ | 11/03/2018 | self

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Look...I am only observing what is going on around us. POTUS, Trump is having massive, heavily attended rallies (20,000-30,000 people), the same type of rallies that helped him immensely win the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton.

You, we, will get to witness two of them today in Montana & Florida. The “Pensacola, Florida: Rally will be both a “Blockbuster & Barn Burner” affair for all to behold.

On the other hand the Democrat rallies headed by Obama & Biden are simply gatherings not worth talking about because they are lightly attended...across the board, fact is, simply, Obama & Biden have zero drawing power whatsoever anymore. Why? The Democrats have no true leader....not one!!!

As for the Media, pollsters & Pundits... I listen and heed none of them. The fact with them is...either they do not have a clue or, they are making nice for the Democrat low lifes, like Gillum, Nelson, O’Rouke, Menendez, etc. and if you notice most of them are hedging their bets and predictions starting today!!!

I have no idea how this will play out but, I will solidly predict that Texas, Florida & Georgia will go Trump “RED” big time, come Tuesday evening...if & I mean if, the Republican base turns out 100% to support the POTUS, Trump chosen team.

And, Just so you know, “Speedy-In-Texas” this old dude here has lived in New York, Florida & Texas & I love all three of them states and the grand folks that live in them!!!

Now...you all voters out there, all of you, get out and vote for the POTUS, Trump chosen team...like right now...period!!!

[patriotspride]

Republicans, all of you, have the “Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity” to politically defeat & destroy the entire Democrat Party for many years to come, if you just get up and get out to vote by Mail-In, Absentee, Early Voting or on Election Day itself, Tuesday, November 6, 2018.

---

Well stated. After the Kavanaugh debacle, and now at least one of the accusers stating she never met him its time to see that the Dem pols and operatives in the background think nothing about the truth. Its all about control and power.

Time to end their reign.... We voted R , help out as this is our chance to make things right.

I trust with holding the house and senate that The Donald will start the “ purge” of the swamp.....

[SpeedyInTexas]

So Clark came in at 48,833 for Friday. For this midterm, that is a crazy number.

But Washoe is the county giving me a heartburn. Heller needs to win Washoe, win it big and is currently behind.

Statewide
DEMs 260,241. (41.5%)
REPs 237,010. (37.8%)
DEMs lead by 23,231 (3.7%)

REPs picked up 3.1% on Election Day in 2016.

This race is close and REPs need a big win on Election Day, win the Indys and a little luck.

[SpeedyInTexas]

This is funny.

So Old North State Politics was locked by twitter for sale rules violation. (LS that happened to you also I believe)

Old MacDonald tweets out: “This doesn’t make much sense, and has the appearance of @twitter being successfully manipulated by a social media disinformation campaign to keep information about the election away from the public”

Too funny. Presumably, REPs are engaging in “disinformation” to take down Old North. Like his website/tweets matter???

[SpeedyInTexas]

for sale ==> for some

[JulieRNR21]

I pray you are correct!
As my Grandma used to say: “From your lips to God’s Ears!”

[Ravi]

It already came down a little with the rurals now 22.4. Still waiting on Elko. Tight as a tick.

TargetSmart Data does give me hope.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/charts.html?state=NV

[TrumpCoat]

That’s a lot to take in. What’s the gist of this?

Dots in upper right & lower left quadrant good. Dots in upper left & lower right quadrant bad. Many "bad" dots have an extenuating factor that would make a more positive trendline if extrapolated to rest of country.

Here is the 2014 overall turnout with the worst impacted counties removed (Bay hit by Michael; Osceola had disproportionate amount of Maria refugees; Alachua is predominantly college students - FL passed early voting law for colleges). Now, we still have to factor these impacts in for FL, but maybe they provide an accurate guess for where the rest of country is going.



However this didn't change I turnout relative to 2014. See rest of graphs here (this is with the 3 counties removed): https://imgur.com/a/vXwSEEu

[TrumpCoat]

Washoe is where all the Californians move to escape their own state. I’m not surprised.

[Windflier]

if your a Rep

you're

[TrumpCoat]

This is the NV graph for total turnout. Washoe was already trending blue in the prior election:


Here's a version focusing on I's only (I used same methodology as I did for FL to estimate I support for Trump):


Caution: the dots do not weigh for population changes. But overall looking good.

[LS]

No, I wasn’t blocked for sales cuz I don’t have any. Just called someone a retard.

[LS]

Overall, Ds are behind 45,000 from their 2016 numbers.

That’s pretty good.

[SpeedyInTexas]

That post should have said Some not Sales.

“for some rules violation”

[Ravi]

Fantastic work!

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Amazon.com has held advanced discussions about the possibility of opening its highly sought-after second headquarters in Crystal City, including how quickly it would move employees there, which buildings it would occupy and how an announcement about the move would be made to the public, according to people close to the process.

The discussions were more detailed than those the company has had regarding other locations in Northern Virginia and some other cities nationally, adding to speculation that the site in Arlington County is a front-runner to land the online retail giant’s second North American headquarters and its 50,000 jobs.”

Amazon will bring a lot of Blue Voters with them. If Amazon came to Austin it would be good for the economy but bad for the road traffic and Travis County voting.

If Amazon goes to NOVA, Virginia is a lost state for REP. Virginia is moving from Light Blue to Deep Blue. Sad.

[fortheDeclaration]

sounds good!

[LS]

Yep. Only solution is Trump’s plan to keep moving gubment out.

[rlbedfor]

I just can’t imagine I being more Dem than 2016. Trump has done so much. If reps ahead it only will be better than 2016 for rep.

[Dave W]

You are forecasting a massive Repub landslide, but is not going to happen. It’s wonderful to be led by your heart, but it is not always the best thing to do.