Posted on 10/12/2018 3:30:52 PM PDT by mandaladon
A poll released Friday shows Republican congressional candidate Wendy Rogers with a widening lead over Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) in Arizona’s First Congressional District, indicating a potential Republican pickup in November. The poll, conducted by Go Right Strategies for the Rogers campaign, shows 44.4 percent support for Rogers and 37.5 percent for O’Halleran, with 18.1 still undecided. The sample size is 943 landline respondents, and the margin of error is three points.
Polling in Arizona’s First District, where Democrats have pulled out comfortable victories in each of the three election cycles since it took its current map, has been sparse this campaign season.
The First District is massive, stretching south from the Phoenix exurbs and snaking east and north to encompass more than half of Arizona’s landmass and widely diverse constituents ranging from the country’s largest Indian reservations to the ski town of Flagstaff to the suburbs of Tucson. No independent polls have been published, and the O’Halleran campaign has not released any of its own surveys. The polling analysts at both Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight rate the race as “leans Democrat” for this year, with the latter site finding it “likely Democrat” in some of its models.
The poll released Friday, however, is the second in a row by Go Right to show Rogers leading the race. Their figures cite “Likely voters who voted in the 2016 and 2014 General Election” and use turnout data broken down by county and party affiliation from 2016.
The last poll had Rogers just more than three points ahead in a survey conducted at the end of last month. Friday’s poll, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, used the same methodology, showing a nearly four-point shift to Rogers in the two weeks since Christine Blasey Ford testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
It’s almost like they are trying to convince people their votes aren’t necessary.
Slight correction. She “did not care” if an American fought for the Taliban.shes toast.
I know these pollsters TRY to get it right. But this AZ 1 District is problematic. About 8 years ago, the “bipartisan” redistricting drew lines that look like a piece of paper, the left half of which has turned into an amoeba. There are lots of lobes and tendrils, each designed to insure that population centers with universities (Flagstaff, Tempe) are included. This helps to offset the large rural areas that are overwhelmingly conservative. This means that the 7 or so Indian reservations become the deciding factor. This is why the Repubs have had trouble winning Dist. 1 since the new gerrymander happened (did I mention it was a bipartisan redraw? I didn’t mention that it was redrawn with the repubs in charge of the legislature. Nice work, huh?).
If only the Natives were conservative. But they’re not. If only they’d favor us with a low turnout. They won’t. They LOVE election days.
So, given that Native Americans can sometimes be hard to reach for polling purposes, that is the X factor.
I wish I had better news. I love Wendy.
Sweet!
starting to feel like a red wave in the house, too.....let ‘er roll ! They must be decimated.
The First District is a notoriously gerrymandered district. A real joke. Created so that Democrat college snowflakes (Both in state and out of state) and Indian tribes outnumber everyone else.
Now the GOP must demand that every AZ demo rat denounce Sinema's absurd insults of her own state, and her anti-American beliefs (supporting US citizens who went off to fight for the Taliban...seriously?).
hidden GOP voters....
I once asked a female student assistant at the university library who worked for me ,because you are smart and qualified on your own, wouldn’t you feel better if you earned your jobs and promotions by merit rather than affirmative action quotas that left others suspecting you weren’t good enough?
She said no, she’ll just continue to take the unfair quota advantage over males and be happy.
18% is a lot of undecided.
I agree. Many people, including blacks and hispanics and whites will vote R and simply keep it to themselves.
Sad about the student you spoke to.
This and the seat Shalala looks set to lose in Miami would be two Republican pickups. This in addition to the dozen seats in Ohio and Florida the Republicans hold which were called tossups but which the Republican leads in every single case......Its looking more and more like the Republicans will hang onto the House.
“Many wimpy males who thought they were getting female adulation for acting supportive toward feminism found out the females wiped their feet on them as doormats and spit on them on the way out. Males then think: I won’t say it out loud but I’m voting GOP in the secrecy of the voting booth, b—ch.”
Good insight. Beta males are sick of being cucked. It doesn’t get them laid by their hairy armpit feminist womyn alphas.
Yes. We have to remember the polls said no one anywhere gave a national poll majority to Trump and the yard signs and bumper stickers were 85% Hillary, and oddsmakers’ probability of Hillary victory was way up there.
No one supported Trump, except for the voters in a majority of states.
It’s an internal poll but woah nelly.
McSally’s seat looks lost (candidate bombing?) so it would great to offset it with this one.
We don’t even need a red wave, calm seas would be good enough.
I know it’s possible, but it’s hard to see how Deuce wins by 20+, Rogers wins, McSally wins by 8 or so (my estimated final) and yet we can’t hold AZ2 or flip AZ8.
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