You are mostly correct. I’m going to ping my list here because of what I think is happening:
First, the schedule: Senate rules require only a day after a cloture vote before a full floor vote. When the Judiciary Committee finally votes K out of committee for a floor vote, the DemoKKKrats will throw another tantrum and try to filibuster. This will take about a day. Yertle will then call for a cloture vote to end the filibuster. Rs will win that. So you will have about two days from the Judiciary Committee passing the nomination out to the floor until K is confirmed by a floor vote.
Second, it is a myth that if things are delayed, Judge K “can’t vote” in this term. Rubbish. Clarence Thomas wasn’t confirmed until Oct. 15. He would be recused from any oral arguments heard before he was seated, I think, but I’m not even sure he’d be recused then. No, Judge K will be fully ready when confirmed.
Third, Grassley has been fantastic, as has Yertle, but Grassley has a Flakey problem. The committee is 11-10 (which is a reason you want a BIG senate majority, when this crap can’t happen) .
Flakey told Grassley would not vote “yes” to let the nomination out of committee. That in itself “might” not pose a danger, in that Grassley can still just go straight to the floor without a committee recommendation. But in this case, that would be extremely dangerous, because it would give cover to Tom Collins and MurKowSki to vote no. He doesn’t want to do that. So he is humoring Flakey.
Sean Trende reported Flakey was going to vote “present” on the Judiciary Committee vote-—but Flakey denied it, while still not saying he’d vote “yes.” (BTW his Twitter feed is inundated by lefties demanding he vote no.)
As an Arizonian, I think Flakey is engaging in his last giant showboat hurrah, and wants the hearing so he can look “compassionate” to women, then will vote yes.
We can lose 1, or even 2 (and Pence would break a tie). But this would look very, very bad, when your majority cannot even gather a majority vote for a perfect USSC candidate.
I’m more convinced than ever that FinkStink screwed up big time in her strategy. This was hatched in July when she got the letter, but in July, there were still idiots out there saying the DemoKKKrats could take the Senate. Now in reality that hope is less likely than the Jamaican Bobsled Team putting a flag on Mars.
It was planned as follows, I think: Wait until the last minute. Launch the allegation. Delay the hearing or confirmation until the mid-terms. DemoKKKrats win the midterms. THEN demand that no judge be confirmed since “the people have spoken” and a new Senate is coming in as of January. Hope Rs cave to that.
This death machine got turned on in July, and I think FinkStink kind of forgot about it, and when she launched, the feeble-minded FinkStink forgot that it had hinged on DemoKKKrats taking the senate. She couldn’t turn it off.
Lost in all this was the likelihood that not only was Balless Edsel lying about her experience, but that the lies would be so exposed that in fact it would drag FinkStink herself into the fray.
I don’t think this is over for her. Judge K will be confirmed, as I think Flakey, post-grandstanding, will be a yes. But now the real digging into what did FinkStink know and when did she know it will start.
One last thing: Judge K was Trump’s choice . . . but he was also high on the Bushies’ list. FinkStink is like Hitler declaring war on not one, but two massive superpowers, either of which could crush her. Not a smart move.
Great comment, perhaps “Flakey” should be strongly “reminded” that his clearances will be lifted when he leaves, making it difficult to be the new eneMEDIA talking head (or another part of his body), if he doesn’t vote “yes”.
Very good analysis, LS.
Will this help or hurt us in November?
Great analysis, LS.
Thank you for sharing and it all makes sense.
I think Flake is like a spoiled child who demands attention and wishes to stand out before he is out of the spotlight. It’s as if he is channeling McCain from beyond the grave.
I hope you're right, but when have Republicans EVER started an investigation into a Democrat?
What happens if Feinstein loses her reelection? It's likely that Republicans will just let it go, pretending that no real damage to our institutions were perpetrated by senior Democrats in leadership positions.
They will never campaign in the future on Democrat abuses once they gain office. They will never call out the others who conspired with Feinstein against the orderly operation of the Senate or the political assassination of Brett Kavanaugh.
It's simply not in their nature.
-PJ
___________
Thanks for the heads up.
You know Larry that I suggested to you (privately) months ago that your intelligent and thoughtful observations would be more understandable if YOU WOULD BLOW OFF YOUR CHOSEN "NICKNAMES".
You lose a great percentage of your "audience" by using your silly nicknames.
After all, there are many reading your remarks who are not familiar with those silly (yet sometimes humorous) nicknames.
Drop them for important messages, which I assume you think this post is.
Your nicknames are not required or helpful here for beneficial effect.
Sorry the truth..... from a fan and most likely always a fan.
Come Thursday, Kavanaugh will look like a saint thanks to FinkStink.
Always pleased when LS weighs in.
He knows whereof he speaks!
Thank you, LS. I will copy onto another thread with an etiquette ping and attribution.
Thank you, Larry, for what you are doing for Our FRee Republic!
As an Arizonian, I think Flakey is engaging in his last giant showboat hurrah, and wants the hearing so he can look “compassionate” to women, then will vote yes.
That's also what I'd like to think, but since he no longer has to face voters (unless he comes out of the closet, switches panties, er, parties, and runs as a Demwit for President), he could go either way -- a prospect that has a bearing on other aspects of his life, I'm sure.
We can lose 1, or even 2 (and Pence would break a tie). But this would look very, very bad, when your majority cannot even gather a majority vote for a perfect USSC candidate.
That's another reason that could motivate Flake to vote no.
I’m more convinced than ever that [Feinstein] screwed up big time in her strategy. This was hatched in July when she got the letter, but in July, there were still idiots out there saying the DemoKKKrats could take the Senate. Now in reality that hope is less likely than the Jamaican Bobsled Team putting a flag on Mars.
Heh, I wholeheartedly agree, and love that tuurn of phrase. Reminds me of Zippy ("I'm in a bathtub! It's on Mars!"). My only quibble would be the speculation that the prospect of a letter was probably discussed with the corrupt old crone before that. And thanks a little elbow grease for the ping.
Great summary, as always. Thanks!!
I agree that Grassley and McConnell have been terrific sidestepping landmines and herding a group of prima donna cats.
Interesting. Been wondering where you had gotten to. I hope the Democraps get crushed in their own rats nest!