Hurricane Florence Live Thread II

NHC/NOAA ^ | 12 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

[alancarp]

More specifics on Lumber River:

"Chick Jacobs @NCWeatherhound 45m45 minutes ago

Peak flooding on the Lumber at Lumberton with Matthew was 24.3 feet. That covered I-95 for miles and flooded countless homes and businesses.

The expected peak if #Florence's rains verify: 25 feet, an additional 6 inches of misery to that region."

[NautiNurse]

Jeffers mapped out the tornado potential of those cells up in post #569.

[jeffers]

Low altitude, tubular rolls of clockwise and counter clockwise shear, on the inner boundary of a feeder band:

[alancarp]

"Chick Jacobs @NCWeatherhound 45m45 minutes ago

The Cape Fear in FAY is projected to see levels unseen since the catastrophic flood of 1945 (thank the Lord for Jordan Lake Dam!) At 62.5 feet, the river will be 3 feet higher than Matthew, and about 18 feet higher than Fran."

(Note: the 1945 flood referred to produced the record of a 68.9 ft river height. Chick also tweeted about the likelihood of this river being a mile wide just south of Fayetteville.)

[RooRoobird20]

“Five hundred million without power” LMAO

.....the stupidity of “reporters” and their editors is breath-taking.

[jeffers]

Yes. My gut reaction is diffuse, and hard to quantify, but basically, my experience with vids is that, like tsunamis, storm surge waves add to depth, where non-surge, wind driven water piling up has waves on top that do not increase depth quickly.

I think the point I’m trying to make is the relative speeds of depth increase. Wind will drive water deeper over time, surge brings it in fast.

[alancarp]

The GOOD news on these flooding forecasts? There’s 3 days of warning here... those peaks are not expected to hit until Tuesday.

[DouglasKC]

lol..isn’t that MORE than the population of the united states? I still got power here in Kentucky...anyone else?

[alancarp]

(Slight edit - the Lumber River will hit major flood status tomorrow and stay there for about 3 days... Cape Fear area residents will have more time to prepare/leave).

[American Quilter]

I added it to the Breaking News sidebar and it's at the top there now.

Thanks, AdMod!

[FreeReign]

Florence Now at Coastline, Winds Measured Below Hurricane Strength

[NautiNurse]

On top of surge and winds, New Bern has received 12" rain to date.

Morehead City...42.5" rain already fallen

[American Quilter]

Fox News needs to have someone proofread their crawlers! “500 Million without power”—jeez!

[silent_jonny]

.....the stupidity of “reporters” and their editors is breath-taking.

And their politicians.

[RooRoobird20]

Terry McAuliffe, what a buffoon!!!!

[FreeReign]

New Bern was in a very bad configuration for surge, and now it looks like it will be in a very heavy feeder band for hours. And the current wind direction will keep any water from being able to drain out for probably 12 hours or so.

The entire coast between Wilmington and Pamlico Sound is facing right into the surge direction. Bad news indeed for getting maximum surge damage.

[PeteB570]

The Cape Fear River around Fayetteville and on both sides is contained by fairly high bluffs.

Once the river hits the height of the bluffs it has flat land to spread into, especially to the east. Pretty flat to the west up to the County Courthouse.

The above is just what the 1945 flood did.

[alancarp]

Was just looking at the flood projections for some additional rivers in the area N and NW of Morehead City from the NWS's latest briefing slides - the actual data on river heights seems to be trending HIGHER than the projections.

[alancarp]

"Once the river hits the height of the bluffs it has flat land to spread into, especially to the east. Pretty flat to the west up to the County Courthouse."

So it sounds like (a) there's a physical limit to maximum flood height... but (b) once it gets there everybody gets flooded - that about right?

[jeffers]

And now the bulk of that shear is coming ashore: