Posted on 09/12/2018 1:53:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories for Hurricane Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here. As the super-size storm named Florence approached the U.S. Atlantic Coast, stories abound of people who are refusing to evacuate barrier islands.
The 82nd Airborne has relocated all of its assets, while FEMA is using Fort Bragg as a major staging area for post-storm supplies, including meals, water and cots. Fort Jackson (Columbia SC) has cancelled events including basic training graduation to prepare for military and civilian evacuees from coastal locations.
While hurricane preparations are rushed to completion, some stores are closing for lack of hurricane supplies inventory. Smart phone app Gas Buddy provides updates for gasoline availability along evacuation routes.
Wave heights to 83 ft. were recorded while Hurricane Florence churned 435 miles from Wilmington, NC. Storm surge is predicted to reach 6-13 ft along the coastline to the N of landfall. Steering currents are forecast to collapse at or near landfall, resulting in Florence meandering for days. This is expected to result in up to 40 inches of rainfall in isolated areas in the Carolinas, and up to a foot of rain in the Appalachian Mountains.
Tropical Storm Isaac: The government of France has issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for the Lesser Antilles.
Invest 95L: The National Hurricane Center predicts 70% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico. Limited forecast models, satellite graphics and GOM buoy info are available for Invest 95L below.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Local Weather: |
Also interesting: movement is WNW, wondering if that is a wobble....
Excellent. Thank you!
A few other areas in the red (besides New Bern) are Pollockville, River Bend, and Newport.
Over time, those winds will cause damage, but they are not representative of the real risks in this storm. Tbe cops are still out.
Wind driven tide is not storm surge. Surge comes on quickly and it’s going to catch people out. Same with flash flooding. I have the terrible feeling that many of the dedead are going to have stunned looks on their face.
Beach House still has power as of 3:00 AM. ARLO camera shows rain being blown in under the screened porch. The rug has been rolled up and blown to the south end of the porch. Wind coming from around the north.
Well said!! You said it better than NIAA.
. NOAA actually has a page dedicated just to storm surge. Here are just a couple of items. There are also examples from previous storms.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/
Storm Surge vs. Storm Tide
Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases.
Factors Impacting Surge
Storm surge is produced by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving cyclonically around the storm. The impact on surge of the low pressure associated with intense storms is minimal in comparison to the water being forced toward the shore by the wind.
Still power behind Holden Beach at 0400.
What the heck is going on with the wind field to put Rhode Island in the TS winds probability zone? Is there a storm there locally or is this effects of Florence?
Most cams I’ve been watching are down.
The one at Southport at the mouth of the Cape Fear River south pf Wilmington was still up - as of now. And Southport still has power. You have to wait until the cam pans past the downtown light.
http://stateportpilot.com/live_web_cam/
Wind field map update just got a whole lot stranger.
What the heck is all of New England from Philly to eastern Maine now doing in the wind field probability band?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_wind_probs_34_F120+png/033326.png
You’re right, that is strange.
Can anyone here chime in on why Maine to New England is now shaded in a separate wind field?
A pure guess, but maybe when the remnants get that far north they are expected to mix with some arctic air flow from tne north to reach the threshold speed again?
I’ll go with that! Thank you.
there is a lot of info there good stuff.
I have been to NC three or four times a year since 1978. What appears to me is that there could be a lot of flooding days or even weeks after the storm as freshwater runoff hits the numerous streams and rivers that pocket the state.Could really get bad in some areas,IMHO.
Per FNC: Authorities in New Bern, N.C., tell Fox News that at least 150 people were stranded early Friday as the Category 1 storm makes its way to landfall. A city official said some residents have reported being in chest-high levels of water.
New Bern. 200 rescued. 150 await rescue.
I was amazed to see that it showed what looked like the remnants of Florence reforming into a storm off the coast of New England. Starting around next Wednesday or so.
Bad now and further inland as fresh water beings to run-off I think there will be flooding events there as well.Tough times for much of the state of NC.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
