Posted on 04/10/2018 7:06:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
When assessing the motives of migrants, the press can only seem to tell one of two stories: If they’re leaving the Third World, they’re escaping poverty; if they’re leaving the First World, they’re escaping politics.
Canada has emerged as a favored backdrop for the latter sort of storytelling as of late, with any and all movements of peoples across the U.S.–Canadian border now reliably slotted into larger media narratives contrasting the supposed hell of Donald Trump’s regime with the heaven of Justin Trudeau’s. Lazy, Trump-centric characterizations of the multi-dimensional, long-running problem of American-based refugees crossing illegally into Canada is but one manifestation; another is the notion, most recently articulated in Axios and the Globe and Mail, that Canada is pulling in oodles of brilliant American expats who cannot stand another moment living under the rule of their monstrous president.
Beneath the sensationalistic headlines, which brag of Canada’s “brain heist” of “scientists fleeing Trump” were stories of a handful of American professors who had accepted jobs at Canadian universities. Despite a few generically anti-American quotes from the academics rationalizing their move to Canada, the articles ultimately had to concede the less politically interesting reality that the scholars in question had been incentivized to emigrate by the Canada Research Chairs Program, a nearly two-decade-old Ottawa initiative in which Canadian universities are given grants to help recruit expensive talent from other countries.
The search for high-status Americans running off to Canada has been an obsession of the press of both countries since Trump’s election, and a lack of tangible evidence has done little to temper writing on a phenomenon that many seem determined to will into existence. Such articles are easily identified by common characteristics, none of which are exactly testaments to journalistic excellence.
A single compelling anecdote is often used as substitute for harder proof — as was the case with the absurdly overcovered story of a photogenic South Carolina couple who moved to Halifax — as is vague, aspirational language about this-or-that Canadian industry “looking to” exploit America’s Trump apathy. Decontextualized jumps in percentages are also a mainstay (American applications to Canadian colleges have leapt “20 to 70 per cent” bragged the head of Universities Canada), as are giddy tales of some random bureaucrat or lawyer’s website crashing.
What such stories never mention, however, is just what a daunting task it is to substantially alter the directional flow of North American migrants in Canada’s favor. However cliché it may be among a certain set of liberal American to lust wistfully for a Canadian exile, in any given year significantly more Canadians “flee” in the other direction.
According to the Canadian immigration department, 9,100 American citizens got permanent residency in Canada in 2017, a figure slightly higher than the 2016 total (8,410), which was itself higher than the 2015 total (7,520) but lower than the total in 2014 (8,491). 10,187 Americans got Canadian green cards in 2008, the only year of the last decade in which the figure surpassed 10,000.
According to America’s immigration department, by contrast, the year 2017 saw 11,573 Canadian-born persons get permanent residency in the United States. This was down from 2016 (12,793) and 2015 (12,673), but about the same as in 2014 (11,586). In 2008, the year in which over 10,000 Americans emigrated to Canada, the Canada-to-U.S. number was over 15,000.
(These stats are not perfect one-to-one matches since the Americans track immigration using “fiscal years” while Ottawa just uses the January-to-December calendar.)
For Canada to be any sort of net benefactor of continental migration, in short, would require Canada up its intake of Americans by anywhere from 2,500 to 5,000 per year. The Canada Research Chairs Program has spent $117.6 million and so far recruited 14 — and many of these are simply “repatriated” Canadian émigrés.
There’s never been any hard data to suggest politics plays much of a role in dictating why Americans move to Canada — or for that matter, vice versa. First World–to–First World immigration is a minor category these days, reflecting generally low reserves of motive. Most visas tend to go to spouses — those mythical “Canadian girlfriends” are evidently quite real — while economic migration is small, and concentrated in mostly elite, managerial-type positions. The nominal immigrants who fill such jobs are likely to be the sort whose commitment to career and professional advancement is powerful enough to transcend nationalistic hang-ups, and are thoroughly comfortable moving about the deeply integrated economic-cultural space that is English-speaking North America.
Canada, as the smaller country, is more impacted by out-migration on a per capita level than the U.S., which explains why various levels of the Canadian government invest so highly in immigration programs, as well as local tax breaks and regulatory incentives designed to lure talented Americans north. For a long time, the fact that Canada’s corporate-tax rate was significantly lower than America’s — 15 percent compared to 35 percent — was considered a particular magnet for attracting U.S. executives looking to do business, and keeping that advantage has long been one of the sacred cows of Canadian politics, even on the far left.
President Trump of course has recently signed legislation slashing the American rate down to 21 percent, a move that has sired anxiety among Canadian economists that their country’s attractiveness as a destination for corporate investment is in danger of crumbling. Should such fears manifest, this would presumably have some consequence for any future relocation plans of American professionals.
The Trump factor may yet play a role in immigration to Canada after all.
And I guess Global Warming isn’t driving us north either.
Canada can have as many illegal aliens as they want, we have plenty to spare.
But liberals promised us they’d deport themselves.
Yeah, I was hoping they’d go away.
Too bad, there are many I’d like to see leave.
RE: Too bad, there are many I’d like to see leave.
The question that needs to be asked is this — WILL CANADA EVEN WANT THEM?
Fake news.
Yeah, United States citizens aren’t moving north...but Hatian boat people...
Liberals can live in a conservative society, but the reverse isn’t true.
Maybe they like the Tax Cuts ,LOL
The USA is such a great nation that the people who hate it refuse to leave.
What? No celebrities? Just empty threats.
Indeed, they act as though the US and Canada just give out green cards to anyone who asks.
Great point.
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