Saudi Arabia's War in Yemen Has Been a Disaster

The National Interest (via Yahoo) ^ | March 25th, 2018 | Yoel Guzansky, Ari Heistein

[Mariner]

Saudi Arabia's War in Yemen Has Been a Disaster

This month marks three years since the start of the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen, but that is unlikely to be an occasion for celebration in Riyadh. The war is estimated to have cost the Saudis upwards of $100 billion, eroded the international image of the kingdom and failed to achieve its objectives of “eliminating Iranian influence” from Yemen. At the same time, the people of Yemen have suffered immensely from the U.S.-backed Saudi campaign, which killed thousands of Yemeni civilians, destroyed the country’s infrastructure, and has led to widespread disease and hunger. With Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MbS) visit to Washington, the U.S. administration has an opportunity to bring this harmful campaign to an end.

For the Saudis, Yemen is a historical target of influence, but also a critical arena for security and stability, if only because Yemen shares a long and porous border with it and also commands the entrance to the Red Sea. For Iran, on the other hand, Yemen is a secondary arena, certainly when compared to Iraq and Syria. However, for a relatively low investment in the Houthi militia, Iran was able to exact a significant economic, military, and diplomatic price from its main regional rival.

In its campaign against the Houthis, Saudi Arabia enjoys intelligence and logistical aid from the Americans, and has the fourth largest security budget in the world as well as advanced weaponry at its disposal. Yet, the kingdom is finding it difficult to defeat a determined enemy on its doorstep. In fact, in addition to holding on to the Yemeni capital Sanaa and other key areas, the Houthis have fired over one hundred missiles—allegedly manufactured in Iran—deep into Saudi territory and have captured over one hundred square miles within the kingdom.

[Trumpisourlastchance]

The one nation in the world whose disappearance would make the world a better/safer place is Saudi Barbaria. The fact that Israel is allied with them doesn’t make me like them.

[MadMax, the Grinning Reaper]

Iranians and/or their proxies attacked the USS Cole and killed about 17 sailors. Attacked the Marine barracks in Beirut and the embassy (and French embassy), killing 241 Marines, about 17 at the embassy, and dozes of French soldiers and staffers. Don’t forget their attacks on our troops in Iraq, esp. with IEDs. Maybe even got to Afghanistan to work with the Taliban and even more likely to have worked with the Pakistanis.

Behind the deadly bombing of a synagogue in Argentina about 15 years ago that killed almost a hundred people. Behind attacks in Israel, Jordan, Yemen we know about, possibly Al Qaeda in the Sinai, Libya, and possibly Egypt, among others.

Attack by proxy is still a war against the US.

The Iranian web of subversion, terrorism and murder is far and wide reaching. To ignore it, like a fly, is to invite assured death and destruction.

[sagar]

“They have the very best infantry equipment available anywhere in the world.”

Money could buy the best American equipment(which is good for the weapons industry and the jobs that it creates, to be honest), but it cannot buy loyalty. Saudi royals are spoiled and hire Pakistani and Egyptian mercenaries. They ain’t be willing to put their lives on the line when the time comes. Think of Saudi Arabia as a really hard concrete. Once it cracks, good luck.

[JudgemAll]

I think England has more terror mosques than Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are coming around on terrorism and more so than the French or British

[JudgemAll]

Yep, Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah are canon fodder for Iranian goals

In the past Lebanese and what not united amongst all faiths against imperial invasions like the Ottomans but lately many are fooled by Iranian promises of peace keeping

[JudgemAll]

The Iranians just got a judgment of family compensation for the Bar Kobar bombing in Saudi Arabia.

[Cronos]

The Saud Empire's days are numbered. Once Salman goes, the family civil war starts and then the various tribes that were conquered by the SAud family will break away

Their armies don't fight as the officers are all members of the family, put in place due to family connections, not ability. The soldiers are treated like slaves and have no urge to die for their AlSaud masters

The best equipment in the world can't help them. They are doomed. and good riddance

As raiderboy typed - the Sauds are the ones who caused 911, Taliban, Alq, Izlamik state etc. - they have spent the money gained since the 80s on radicalizing the mohammaden world.

[Cronos]

The Houthi are not rebels. They are the Zaidi sect who are the majority in north Yemen. When the previous dictator was ousted, they wanted to go back to having their own state (remember North and SOuth Yemen were separate states until 1990)

But the Sauds attacked.

The Zaidis are different theologically from the 12er Shia Iranis

If the AlSauds hadn't attacked there would be no Iranian influence.

[Netz]

The Saudis can win if they go all out and are not stopped by the “Do-gooders” in the West.

If the Saudis would behave like the Iranians, Syrians, Russians and Hizbollah, they would have won by now.

[Cronos]

Iran, Saudia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan all have their own agendas and in many places do not align

If the Houthis gained control of North Yemen, they wouldn't target the Hejaz.

Also, even many Sunnis hate the Saudis for the saudi destruction of Mecca and Medina -- the Sauds destroyed teh tombs of Mohammad's companions and wives and built a toilet on it.

They destroy Sufi dargahs (Sufis are a branch of Sunnis) and smash down on any Sunni school of though that is not their own (the Salafi/Wahabbi school).

There is no one "Sunni" culture - the Wahabbis are quite distinct and quite reviled even among Sunnis in Turkey and Egypt and Pakistan

Also remember that pakistan has a significant Shia minority (many of whom went to fight for Assad) -- and the Baluchis are an Iranian people. They will not risk a war with IRan.

[Cronos]

The Talibs hated the Shia and killed them.

[Cronos]

That's like saying that occupied France had more Nutzi offices than Germany -- the font of Wahabbiterror is Saudia.

They are NOT coming around to anything, the key raison d'etre of their state is to be Wahabbi exporting. They cannot remove that and survive

[Cronos]

The Sauds cannot win due to

• Internal reasons:
  1. They have no modern army, just a feudal army with officers having no training just minor aristocrats and soldiers treated as slaves and not willing to die for nothing
  2. The equipment is barely maintained and folks don't know how to use it

• External
  • The Sauds have already gone "all out" - they bomb hospitals, kill women and children in their indiscriminate bombing and have starved out much fo the populace
  • Most Yemenis even the ones they ostensibly support, hate them
  • The Zaidis are natives of Yemen and know their land, no bedo Saudi will win against them

The Sauds deserve to lose.

[ßuddaßudd]

SA has proven they are inept,,
pitiful imho ..

[Chode]

100%

[T-Bone Texan]

Word on the street is that SA hired several hundred Columbian mercenaries.

They’re all dead now.

[T-Bone Texan]

"...The Saudis cannot win due to... equipment is barely maintained and folks don't know how to use it..."

It has been noted many times here on FR that Arab cultures look down on those who perform any type of maintenance or upkeep. To perform maintenance marks a person as low caste and unworthy of respect.

They all want to be chiefs. No one wants to be an Indian.

It is all about ego and dominance with those people, and it's a worldview totally foreign to me.

[JudgemAll]

England also has extremist mosques from Morocco and other arab nations that Saudi Arabia and even Morrocco would not allow on their premises

[Netz]

If the Saudis lose, we lose because it will be part of the rolling Iranian empire sweeping down from Persia...bad news for ALL of America’s allies and eventually, America itself.

[Cronos]

If the Saudis lose, the USA wins and so does Israel. Why?

Because WHEN (and yes it is when, not if) the Saudi Empire falls then the various tribes will come forth

Remebmer that Saudia is actually an empire formed in the 1920s when the house of Saud defeated other tribes

The tribes are bought off by oil money. Once that ends, their allegiance ends

What happens when the Sauds fall?

1. The various princelings of the house of Saud break away
2. the tribes break away
3. The Hashemites (house of Jordan) goes back to conquer the Hejaz -- remember that they were the traditional rulers of the Hejaz for 1300 years before 1924
4. The Iraqi Arabs united with the Shia Arabs in north-east Saudia
5. The Zaidis take over the land south of the Hejaz
6. Hadhramut and other parts of eastern yemen form their own emirates
7. The Iranians may try to dominate, but they will be kicked out even by the Shia arabs -- don't forget that the Arabs are terribly afraid of the Iranis -- not only Sunni Arabs but even Shia (Saddam convinced these to join him in this 1980-1988 war on Iran)
8. A wider war of Iran versus Arabia will bring down the Ayatollahs as that is NOT what the populace of Iran wants
9. At the most they may occupy Bahrain
10. A resurgent, anti-Izlamik Iran will return to being Israel's friend -- don't forget that Cyrus the Great was an Iranian/Persian ruler