ANALYSIS: Republican strategists say Democrats virtually certain to win House in 2018

ABC ^ | Jan. 14, 2018 | Jonathan Karl

[Hadean]

Republican strategists have turned decidedly pessimistic about their prospects for the 2018 midterm elections. Prominent Republicans are now saying privately that Democrats are virtually certain to win control of the House of Representatives.

As one senior Republican on Capitol Hill told ABC News, “If the election were held today, the House would be gone. Fortunately, the election is not today.”

Another prominent Republican strategist working on the midterm elections went further, telling ABC News point-blank that Republicans will lose the House and that this prospect unlikely to change.

“The only question is whether Democrats win narrowly by picking up 25 seats or whether it is a blowout of more than 35 seats,” the strategist told me.

Allies of President Donald Trump are convinced the president will quickly face impeachment hearings if Democrats take control of the House.

One Republican close to Trump predicted that not only will there be impeachment hearings but that the prospects for the president would be grim.

[PIF]

-If you want to make this country what it should be as above, vote for us.

[longtermmemmory]

the vast bulk of voters are low information

they watch minimal news and usually cnn class deception.

it will be

Democrats = free stuff

Republicans = no free stuff.

[Angels27]

Democrats will both the House and the Senate gands down.

The GOPe congress failure to anything of worth, Trumps very low approval, an engerized Democrat base and a disheartened Republican base makes a very perfect storm for the Rats.

[CodeToad]

The same idiots claimed that in 2015, 2016, and 2017 about 2017 that Trump won.

[Kazan]

The same strategists that believed that Trump had no chance of winning in 2016?

[Revel]

I am waiting for Trumps Fake News Media Awards ceremony coming this Wednesday.

[TXBlair]

Aack! The sky is falling!!! 😭

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

They should’ve done half-SALT rather than a $10,000 cap. A typical wealthy city dweller would still be able to itemize then, although they couldn’t count the whole thing. They could still be able to deduct $30K to $40K easy.

1/2 * (income + sales + property), baby!

$10,000 cap is torture for good, productive conservatives trapped in these blue gulags.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Fortunately, I think enough Democrats, if they’re not absolutely blinded by hatred for Trump, would come along in the House and Senate for a 1/2-SALT fix retroactive to Jan. 1.

[neverevergiveup]

Thanks. I’m sorry to be so fervent about all of this, but I’m just so tired of political arrogance.

They are supposed to ‘represent’ us, but they don’t. Just consider Lindsey Graham’s statement that ‘America belongs to the World’. Inherent in that statement is a significant degree of arrogance, indicating that he is also beyond the American people - representing ‘the world’. America exists because of the individual efforts of all of us, and all of us deserve to have our interests represented by those we employ to represent us. Too many of them have gone off the reservation, and actually believe they are exceptional because they are in public office. They aren’t. Obviously.

[bigred44]

What are you talking about? You’re listening to liberal talking ponts.

I live in California, in upper 5% income bracket, and will see a tax cut.

The tax reform bill limits deductions on mortgage interest for mortgages over $750,000. Not many people have mortgages that high.

And the loss of deductions for state income tax is more than offset by the doubling of standard deduction and reduced marginal rate.

The only people who will be hurt are taxpayers making more than $300,000 with large mortgages. I don’t think there are enough of these to affect the election.

[Sooth2222]

Here’s the difference. Democrats always want to win. Republicans are happy playing second fiddle.

True that, but I'm not too sure that Trump is much of a Republican (Nothing wrong with that -- I've never registered as a Republican, myself. I do always vote for them because they are the lesser of the two evils.)

Fortunately, Trump DOES like to win!

[dfwgator]

Fortunately, Trump DOES like to win!

He's the only "Republican" that does. Look how many have turned tail and "retired".

[JPJones]

More evidence that democrats are calling themselves “republican strategists”

[cherry]

well, we've done what we could haven't we?...we worked hard to get the House and Senate republican and gave them a republican Prez...

they spit in our face...

I'll vote pub but it seems the elites have it all planned out no matter what..

[bray]

Isn’t this the 10 year in a row the Dems were going to sweep the House and Senate?

[SkyPilot]

Congressman Darrell Issa proposed an indexed SALT deduction based on income.

His proposal was shot down by Ryan and McCarthy.

Issa's district gets murdered by the tax law, and I believe that Issa is retiring in part because of his frustration in dealing with Ryan on this issue.

The Republican leadership can continue to whistle through the graveyard and pretend that everything is hunky dory vis a vis the tax law, but sooner or later they will get a big slap in the face of reality.

Even Mark Levin said this is NOT what they ran on (raising that taxes of millions in the middle class).

[SkyPilot]

$10,000 cap is torture for good, productive conservatives trapped in these blue gulags

The cap is useless to most, because they won't have enough deductions to itemize. Nonpartisan tax foundations and even Steven Mnuchin have estimated that 95% of families won't be able to itemize any longer. Couple with the loss of the personal exemption, and many families are royally screwed.

But hey, we can take comfort in the fact that companies that hate conservatives (Facebook, Google, and Apple) just got a huge tax cut at the expense of some individuals whose taxing are going up to "pay for it."

[TMA62]

“Ten months away, which is a lifetime in politics....”

______________________________________________________

So true. Nothing can be said with any certainty now. Some items of note:

(1) The GOP has a huge war chest. The DNC is broke
(2) The DNC has over 20 senate seats to defend include one in Minnesota. It is very expensive to finance senatorial campaigns. The DNC is broke.
(3) The dems message will be “I hate Trump” Not a good message to resonate. The choice is Trump or Pelosi/Schumer (they poll worse than Trump)
(4) The other dem message will be pro- gays, Muslims, illegal immigrants, transgenders in the bathrooms. Big winner points for an election?
(5) Another dem message will be a hatred for whites, Christians, men, 1st and 2nd amendments. Big winner points for an election?
(6) A roaring economy and stock market will be a hard obstacle to campaign against especially when the dems voted against it.

So anything is possible but to say that the dems have a slam dunk chance in winning is ridiculous this far out. To be honest, these types of stories can and do backfire. If the dems are going to win it all in November, their base may stay home and not vote, thinking that they will easily win. It happened in 2016.

[FlipWilson]

I get what you are saying. But in reality, who is responsible for SALT? The federal government or the one’s who imposed the high state and local income taxes in the first place?