Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
“Are we all Communists?”
Naw. Just whiners.
Btw, still waiting for you answer to these 2 questions:
Why should Fedzilla subsidize the state taxes of any state?
Please please explain how this is even remotely conservative?
It is entertaining to watch many here Seal clapping Government
I agree, there is an outline from both houses, this is NOT the tax reform that will hit Trump’s desk. Now the real work begins. Merging both house/senate plans to formulate the actual tax reform legislation.
Man...at this point, anything is better than nothing.
Are you serious—tax increases?
And government spending should be slashed—from the feds on down to the local level.
So when someone makes a thoughtful and specific comment about why they do not like the tax bill all you can do is come up with an ad hominem response. Not very persuasive on your part.
The only problem with the Uncle Sam cartoon is that it looks like he’s just taking excess cash, when in reality, he’s sucking the life’s blood from states and local governments. Unfortunately, the states and local governments have been willing participants in uncle’s schemes, so even their valid protests ring somewhat hollow.
Subsidization is the result of THEFT by ALL LEVELS of government and they have used us as pawns to argue about whether someone’s money belong to them the individual or not!!
They are providing further tax relief to the individuals in those states at the Fed level BECAUSE these states and their individuals already pay the THE HIGHEST federal income taxes anyway!! They shelter the majority of the federal burden. But hey let’s get rid of their deductions and steal more more more into the fat federal coffers and keep spending spending spending!!
Lights are up and getting the tree later today. Going to be a great Christmas.
Seriously though, I think MAGA is headed in the right direction. Things are not as they seem and the MSM is almost always proven wrong in the end. Remember that MSM wants Trump to fail. They will never take his side on anything. I think even Mike Flynn is a positive development for Trump.
I am going to wait on events. I don’t claim to have inside scoop but I am putting a lot of pieces together. I think all of us will be pleased with the final outcomes. Also a tax bill today does not mean there won’t be more tax bills later that will cut taxes more. I live in Connecticut which has onerous tax rates so I likely won’t benefit much under the new federal bill but I blame Connecticut, not Trump. When Trump gets more support in Congress after 2018, I expect more good things will happen faster.
By getting rid of the individual mandate, they effectively killed deathcare. The only people who will sign up are those who are very sick or those who are subsidized.
I hope the national debt continues to be ignored. Paying off the national debt is just code words that mean the middle class gets screwed to pay off debt held by foreigners and the donor class.
Politics is a scam and we’re suckers for playing.
If high state and local taxes are to be encouraged, they shouldn’t be taxed. If high state and local taxes are to be discouraged, they SHOULD be taxed.
Get your head out of your butt!
Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., was the only lawmaker to cross
party lines, joining the Democrats in opposition.
Explained in 147 the states you cite as being subsidized already shelter the highest federal tax burden anyway. In essence the argument could be made that because they pay more than other states anyway they are subsidizing the rest of us.
But I digress, the word subsidy is a liberal word for “that is the government’s money because we best know how to use it”
However, the reason I'm addressing you is my dismay at your use of the English language. I always enjoy your informed and well thought out posts, but an error of this magnitude, especially since you're taking such a strident and forthright position, needs to be addressed.
CAPITOL LETTERS
The words capital and capitol, though they are homophones, have no root basis relationship at all. Capitol is named after Capitoline hill, which is in turn Latin for Capitolium, temple of Jupiter Optimus Maximus.
Capital, on the other hand, is also Latin, but derived from capitālis of the head (capit-, stem of caput head, + -ālis -al1).
I typically don't play the role of grammar police, but when a poster is front and center attempting to dominate a thread and/or persuade undecideds, it's critical to avoid making obvious contextual and/or word choice errors. (No one has a problem with spelling errors or even substitution since one tends to type fast and there aren't any edit functions available.)
Rather than have a House/Senate Compromise bill which would have to be voted on again by the House and Senate, the House should just go ahead and vote for the senate Bill and that would be the end of it. Obviously, that would be too simple.
Except the way the basic tax law is written, the tax on every dollar paid to you as wages is due the moment the dollar touches your hand.
The fact that the tax is collected, or finalized, later doesn't mean you don't owe it.
So, all deductions are post hoc social engineering, to favor certain things and punish other things.
I mostly agree with the core libertarian position on taxes, but taking away deductions does not take more of "your money", because, by the logic of "tax due on reciept of wages", it isn't really your money to begin with.
Just because it’s been in the code since 1913 doesn’t make it right!
Time for these high STATE tax states to reform/cut taxes in their own back yards.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Biggest Tax Bill and Tax Cuts in history just passed in the
Senate. Now these great Republicans will be going for final
passage. Thank you to House and Senate Republicans for your
hard work and commitment!
7:54 AM - Dec 2, 2017
I know what “subsidy” comes from.
Still waiting for an answer to these 2 questions:
Why should Fedzilla subsidize the state taxes of any state?
Please please explain how this is even remotely conservative?
Or if you prefer:
Why should Fedzilla pay the state taxes of any state?
Please please explain how this is even remotely conservative?
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