Right there, Lutz establishes himself as a kook. There is zero chance of banning human driver cars within 20 years. There is still not a car that could safely drive fully-automated from somewhere in the NYC suburbs to LaGuardia Airport and pick up or drop off a passenger. Not even close. Add in darkness and weather conditions... give me a break. 20 years is a completely absurd figure for not only getting this right but switching all US public roads over and banning the current cars. Also consider the millions of miles of roads that will need to be prepared for this, with proper paint and signage and whatever else. Then there are the dirt roads. When the day does eventually come, automobiles should seem like small ball - by that time we should be going through the air.
Bullshi'ite. If the market calls for cars that are still driven by people, that's what the market will produce. The only way it won't is if the government mandates driverless cars, and that means We The Sheeple will have pussed out and surrendered to Mother Government yet again. IOW, the only way it would happen is if we let it happen.
Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!
It's very convenient and reliable. I've used the Uber service myself dozens of times and never had a bad experience. For years, I avoided taxis as much as possible because of the awkwardness of trying to explain where you want to go (to somebody that usually speaks broken English) and the payment at the end of the ride. With Uber, you simply type all that in the app and a car shows up already knowing where you want to go. You can actually see the car (on the app) as it approached you. Payment is through the app so no money changes hands. No tipping required. While the app now has an option to tip, you don't have to decide until long after the driver is gone. I generally add on a tip by the way.
Before Uber, city people tended to have cars because public transportation (buses, subway) are generally an awful way to get around. Uber gives you a personal experience and you can at least fantasize that you are some big shot millionaire as you get into one.
So now many city people are deciding they don't need cars anymore. Younger people especially.
Once those Uber type cars are automated, it will make the experience even more personal. No human contact as you get ferried from place to place. You can read your book, sip your beer, whatever...there's real appeal to that kind of transportation.
I think the change will be very gradual. Those of us living today will always have the option to drive our own cars. But the trend will be for less and less of that as future generations come of age and and the automated cars improve.
I think we will first see it in major cities - entire streets will be off limits to personal drivers and only to automated vehicles. (I never seem them mixing together). Then you might have dedicated lanes on the interstates and highways for automated traffic as the next step.
I then see private vehicles getting a lot of tolls while the automated lanes see no tolls. Increasingly, driving your own car will be a more expensive and less desirable option.
That's my best guess on how we get to the future state. I'm thinking in terms of 50 to 100 years. I would be surprised if the full transition happened sooner. But I'm reasonably sure that a hundred years from now, a private automobile will be as rare as horse-drawn buggies are today.
Not saying it's good. But I do see it headed that way.
“will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.”
Baloney.
And when i want to stop on the side of the road to look at an elk? And when kids wanna go across the grass to the edge of the lake to a make out spot? And by the way.... you better stop the upward totalitarian curve our government is on if you expect me to get into a module i don’t control.
You pop in the car and the doors lock and take me to the Homeland Security office? No thanks!
Are all city people completely, totally, batshit crazy?
Because this kind of talk is batshit crazy.
“will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.”
Baloney.
And when i want to stop on the side of the road to look at an elk? And when kids wanna go across the grass to the edge of the lake to a make out spot? And by the way.... you better stop the upward totalitarian curve our government is on if you expect me to get into a module i don’t control.
You pop in the car and the doors lock and take me to the Homeland Security office? No thanks!
Time for a red barchetta
Wait! Whatever happened to flying cars? Shouldn't we have at least gotten those first, BEFORE getting rid of our cars altogether? What a gyp!
“Minority Report” as documentary?
KYPD
Yes, and Spandex jackets...one for everyone.
I don’t believe this.
My grandkids will be running around in my CJ7.
If they have to go off road - so much the better.
One possible transition step might be a vehicle in which one could hit a button to engage the autopilot but take back control when you wanted. In congested areas, the autopilot would probably be required. This would be handled automatically by the software, which would be in constant contact with the smartroad system. A next step would be for the autopilot to take over instantly in collision avoidance situations. People would be gradually weaned off driving. The last nail in the coffin will be the space and amenities that will become available when there is no need for a driver. The architecture of the interior will change. People will prefer stretching out in a lounge to sitting behind the wheel. It will still be personal transportation. You will just have a robotic brain acting as your chauffeur.