All incumbents have an edge unless the economy is dog doo (1932, 1980) or perceived to be dog doo even if it’s ok (1992, recession was over well ahead of the vote) unless your name is Harry Truman (1948) in which case a farm recession helped you somehow because voters were retarded gibemdats sucking on the New Deal teat.
I think Obama may have lost the 2nd time around if not for his incumbency, even to Myth.
If the economy is in ok shape in 2020 Trump is more likely than not to win. If’s it’s crappy he’ll probably lose.
As to the other questions the farticle asks
2)A war (in it’s early stages not quagmire stages) would only help an incumbent President
3)”Will Democrats win control of the House next year, and reject a left-wing agenda for the 2020 presidential contest?”
LOL, putting their chances at winning the House aside (not great IMO) I have news for Bloomberg, the progtard base wants free college and single payer, the rat nominee is gonna have to be for that or pretend to be for that, the democrats will be running on a far-left agenda whether the corporate bloomberg wing of the party likes it or not, and that’s good news for Republicans. If they somehow nominated someone unacceptable to their base we’re gonna see the Green party taking 5%+ from them.
4)Wishful thinking? Trump has shown no sign of health problems. Also while he’s a smidge on the portly side calling him “borderline obese” renders the term meaningless, they called the athletic GW Bush fat as well. Most Americans could stand to lose a few or more than a few pounds.
5)No crimes were committed by Trump vis a vis Russia, yawn so boring.
Even if the economy slumps, who would the Dems nominate, and how would they unite the fat cat neoliberals with the socialists?