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Is 2017 Really the First Year since 1850 with Two Category-4 U.S. Landfall Hurricanes?
Townhall.com ^ | October 6, 2017 | Calvin Beisner

Posted on 10/06/2017 1:34:52 PM PDT by Kaslin

Keeping up the (false) drumbeat that manmade global warming is causing more frequent and stronger hurricanes, lots of media outlets, following the spectacular Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, have proclaimed 2017 the first time in the 166 years of records in which two Category-4 hurricanes made landfall on the mainland United States in the same year.

Among them were USA Today, PBS, Forbes, Fortune, Slate, The Daily Beast, Business Insider, New York Magazine, Townhall.com, and even Scientific American

Like them, Weather.com reported on September 10:

Harvey and Irma both made a U.S. landfall as Category 4 hurricanes.

Two Atlantic hurricanes of this intensity have never made landfall during the same year in the U.S.

For the first time in 166 years of weather records, two Atlantic Category 4 hurricanes have made landfall in the United States during the same year. [Emphasis added.]

… The winds for a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale range from 130 mph to 156 mph. Winds of that strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.

Weather.com repeated the claim 10 days later.

And the claim's true—sort of.

But it's really false, because it compares apples and oranges.

Weather.com doesn't mention that in 2012 the National Hurricane Center modified the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Speed (SSHWS) scale "in order to resolve awkwardness associated with conversions among the various units used for wind speed in advisory products." Specifically, "The change broaden[ed] the Category 4 wind speed range by one mile per hour (mph) at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130–156 mph."

Why was the change necessary?

Because of the inherent uncertainty in estimating the strength of tropical cyclones, the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center assign tropical cyclone intensities in 5-knot (kt) increments (e.g., 100, 105, 100, 115 kt, etc.). Some advisory products, however, require intensity to be given in units of mph and kilometers per hour (km/h). For these products, the intensity in knots is converted into mph and km/h and then rounded to 5-mph and 5-km/h increments, so as not to suggest that the intensity of the storm can be known to unrealistic precision (e.g., 127 mph!). [Emphasis added.]

Prior to the modification, the SSHWS was:

-Category 1: 74–95 mph / 64–82 kt / 119–153 km/h

-Category 2: 96–110 mph / 83–95 kt / 154–177 km/h

-Category 3: 111–130 mph / 96–113 kt / 178–209 km/h

-Category 4: 131–155 mph / 114–135 kt/ 210–249 km/h

-Category 5: 156 mph / 136 kt / 250 km/h or higher

So under the modified SSHWS scale, both Harvey and Irma were Cat-4 hurricanes at landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Under the pre-modified scale, both were Cat-3.

So in order to compare apples and apples, we need to ask not "Did two Cat-4 hurricanes ever make landfall on the mainland U.S. in the same year before 2017?" but "Did two (or more) Cat-3 hurricanes ever make landfall on the mainland U.S. in the same year before 2017?"

The answer: Yes, in 10 different years: 1852, 1855, 1879, 1893, 1909 (three storms), 1926, 1933, 1985, 2004, and 2005 (four storms).

In short, it's false that, applying the same (pre-modification) SSHWS scale, 2017 was the first year on record in which 2 or more hurricanes of the same category as Harvey and Irma made landfall on the mainland U.S.



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalwarming; hurricanes; weather

1 posted on 10/06/2017 1:34:52 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

BEARE!!

NATE may make it #3!


2 posted on 10/06/2017 1:38:47 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country)
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To: SandRat

If you count Maria’s landfall in PR, we are already at 3.


3 posted on 10/06/2017 1:42:14 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Kaslin

Hard to say. The U.S. was far less populated in 1850. Could’ve been a dozen Cat 4 hurricanes some years but with so few people around to report them, Hu knew?


4 posted on 10/06/2017 1:43:12 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: Texas Eagle

exactly


5 posted on 10/06/2017 1:50:58 PM PDT by Kaslin (Politicians are not born; they are excreted -Civilibus nati sunt; sunt excernitur. (Cicero))
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To: Kaslin

after 100mph one cannot tell the difference


6 posted on 10/06/2017 1:51:06 PM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen
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To: dirtboy

Puerto Rico is a territory and not a state


7 posted on 10/06/2017 1:52:52 PM PDT by Kaslin (Politicians are not born; they are excreted -Civilibus nati sunt; sunt excernitur. (Cicero))
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To: Kaslin
It’s important to reiterate that because NHC assigns intensity using 5-kt increments (and will be doing so for the foreseeable future), neither storms in the historical record nor any future storms would have their SSHWS category changed as a result of this adjustment. Changing the Category 4 range to 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, and 209-251 km/h simply allows all unit conversions from knots to be done correctly and keep storms in the correct category, regardless of the units used.

Guess they overlooked this part.

8 posted on 10/06/2017 1:56:47 PM PDT by ealgeone
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To: SandRat

9 posted on 10/06/2017 1:57:41 PM PDT by Kaslin (Politicians are not born; they are excreted -Civilibus nati sunt; sunt excernitur. (Cicero))
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To: Kaslin

LOL - typical MSM foolishness


10 posted on 10/06/2017 2:00:03 PM PDT by RightGeek (FUBO and the donkey you rode in on)
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To: Texas Eagle

There were 30 US states when the year 1850 started and 31 when the year ended.


11 posted on 10/06/2017 2:18:06 PM PDT by Kaslin (Politicians are not born; they are excreted -Civilibus nati sunt; sunt excernitur. (Cicero))
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To: dirtboy

OK, then NATE, will make it 4.


12 posted on 10/06/2017 2:20:38 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country)
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To: Kaslin

Still U.S. territory.


13 posted on 10/06/2017 2:23:18 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Kaslin
And, of those 30 states, I doubt if many, if any at all, had a million residents. There could've been hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes and all sorts of natural disasters that went unreported.

I don't think Indians were big on record-keeping.

14 posted on 10/06/2017 2:24:32 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: Kaslin

Over three weeks without any steady rain here in PA.

Sorry for any harm in NO but I am hoping for a good soaking!


15 posted on 10/06/2017 2:45:57 PM PDT by airborne (I don't always scream at the TV but when I do it's hockey playoffs season!)
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To: Kaslin

So we had 167 years without this happening again - after all those colonials and cowboys and Indians stopped driving their SUVs in 1850....


16 posted on 10/06/2017 4:01:45 PM PDT by maine-iac7 ( Christian is as Christian does mt-h)
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To: Kaslin
...and even Scientific American. 

SA has spewed the leftist crap for a LONG time now.

I subscribed for decades; but the shift away from Science to 'science' got so bad that I gave up on it during John Rennie's (seventh editor-in-chief, 1994–2009) first couple of years at the helm.



An editorial in the September 2016 issue of Scientific American has attacked US Presidential candidate Donald Trump for alleged "anti-science" attitudes and rhetoric. This marks the first time that the publication has forayed into commenting on US presidential politics. [17]
 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_American

17 posted on 10/08/2017 3:56:19 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Kaslin

And they LIKE it this way!


18 posted on 10/08/2017 3:57:00 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Kaslin
My 'like it that way'  comment seems to be a bit suspect...
 
 
The fifth referendum was held on June 11, 2017. 97% percent voted for statehood, though there was only 23% voter turnout.[10]
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico

19 posted on 10/08/2017 4:08:18 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Kaslin
My 'like it that way'  comment seems to be a bit suspect...
 
 
The fifth referendum was held on June 11, 2017. 97% percent voted for statehood, though there was only 23% voter turnout.[10]
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico

20 posted on 10/08/2017 4:08:42 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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