[ClearCase_guy]

I think the standard argument is that they poll more Democrats simply because the population contains more Democrats.

But I believe the Democrats have lost over 1000 political seats (net) at all levels, all across the country over the past 8 years or so. This is not a Majority party no matter how you slice it.

The population contains more Republicans than Democrats. But the thought of actually polling that way terrifies the Establishment.

[ForYourChildren]

“I think the standard argument is that they poll more Democrats simply because the population contains more Democrats.”

63M voted for Trump
62M voted for Clinton

[Dilbert San Diego]

Very true.

Then there’s the hidden intangible, if polls are done with a person interviewing another person. We all know the politically correct view of a candidate or issue, and some people will tell a pollster they favor the liberal or politically correct view of something.

This happened a lot, back when we were still allowed to vote on the definition of marriage. Pre election polls in some states suggested a tight vote, but on election day, voter initiatives to support traditional marriage always got more support than the polls suggested.

This was also called the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley in California, when he was running for governor. He was black, and polls suggested he would win the election. But on election day, he lost. After the fact, the liberals said it was because people were racist, and lied to pollsters about who they would vote for.

[shhrubbery!]

The population contains more Republicans than Democrats.

I picture it as a mathematical inequality like this:
(people who vote for more conservative national candidates) >(people who vote for more leftist national candidates).

But not sure you're right about party registration. More and more voters are now calling themselves "independents."

[zeestephen]

Re: “The population contains more Republicans than Democrats.”

Sorry, that’s not correct.

Republicans in general, and white Conservatives specifically, usually have the highest voter turn out, which is the only reason we won in 2000, 2004, and 2016.

White Democrats and Black voters almost always have lower turn out than Republicans. The exceptions - young white Democrats turned out in record numbers in 2008. In 2012, Black voters turned out in record numbers.

Hispanic turn out is the worst of all, usually 40%-45% of eligible Hispanic voters. If not for Republican Cubans, Hispanic turn out would probably be below 40%.

Bottom Line...

Democrats can win any national election they want to with LEGAL voters, but only if they can get their core voters to the polls.