It takes just 4 years to detect human warming of the oceans

The Guardian ^ | September 20, 2017 | by John Abraham

[Oldeconomybuyer]

We’ve known for decades that the Earth is warming, but a key question is, how fast? Another key question is whether the warming is primarily caused by human activities. If we can more precisely measure the rate of warming and the natural component, it would be useful for decision makers, legislators, and others to help us adapt and cope. Indeed, added ocean heat content underlies the potential for dangerous intense hurricanes.

An answer to the “how fast?” question was partly answered in an Opinion piece just published on Eos.org, the daily online Earth and space science news site, by scientists from China, Europe and the United States. I was fortunate enough to be part of the research team.

Our work shows that scientists need less than 4 years of ocean heat measurements to detect a warming signal. This is much shorter than the nearly three decades of measurements that would be required to detect global warming if we were to use temperatures of air near the Earth’s surface. It is also slightly better than the nearly 5 years of sea level rise data that are needed for detecting a long-term trend. This means that the warming is not natural, but rather stems from the human-induced climate change, primarily from increases in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.

“Ocean Heat Content” should become a standard metric not only for measuring climate change but for testing our computer models that are used to predict the future climate.

[goodnesswins]

YES, what YOU said. How can they measure the temp of the “ocean”....how many OCEANS are there...where are they... near equator, in Antarctic? I’m so numb to every global warming/climate change headline, that I AUTOMATICALLY DISCOUNT every one...but, you’re right...others believe the headlines.

[outofsalt]

I peed at the beach four years ago and they seem to have caught up with me finally. . .

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

In 1942, MGM released a TRAVELTALKS short on Glacier and Waterton National Parks. It stated that glaciers have been melting since the last Ice Age 12000 years ago and “IF there is NO CLIMATIC CHANGE they will all be gone in a thousand years.”

Then in 1975, we were told the Northern states would be under a mile of ICE by now.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***The SUN is responsible for the vast majority of the heat energy reaching the Earth’s surface.***

And too many forget that in winter, much of that heat radiates off into space at night.

[publius911]

It takes just 4 years to detect human warming of the oceans.

That is an opinion or a fact.
Unless it is based on computer models or it comes from Al Gore, I would simply ignore it.
Otherwise, I want to see real science and data from an actual scientist to back it up. That's just common sense!

[DoughtyOne]

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President Donald J. Trump's address to the United Nations on 09/19/2017.

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[shanover]

The BBC is a bunch of lunatics and fanatics.

[poinq]

The Earth’s temperature is a result of at least four things. The sun and planet including the position in the solar system, The planet itself and the forces beneath the earth’s surface, the chemical make up of the air and water, and the organic life, including humans, forests and algae.

These forces can effect each other. Like a volcano which is caused by heat under the surface can spew huge amounts of ash into the air, shading the suns rays from the earth. To suggest that any of these factors are stagnant or that a permanent balance exists just has no scientific proof.

Scientists are limited by the amount of time that they have been measuring the temperature. Really, they have only been able to actually measure temperatures for the past hundred years with varying levels of accuracy. They are limited by the change in quality of their instruments and the changing manners of measuring (lower atmosphere, higher atmosphere or sea temperatures). They only have deductive physical evidence of temperatures over thousands of years on a planet that has been around for Billions of years.

Scientists that don’t buy the current global warming theory aren’t suggesting that they know if global warming is happening or not. Its that they do not believe that those scientists who are creating press releases with alarming findings can know anything either. They dismiss those scientists as over reaching their own data. And they also believe that there is nothing humanity can do to change behavior that would alter the current situation. The growth rate of the worlds population is not slowing down and neither is the consumption of energy.

You have to ask your self. Is the earth warming or cooling? Does it matter? And are we doing something to cause it? The reality is that we may be changing the earths temperature. But we are pretty sure that the earths temperature always changes and that the earth has been both several degrees cooler and several degrees warmer than it is now within the past few thousand years.

[trebb]

I guess since people average mid to upper 90s F for body temperature, and the mass of the oceans probably average mid 60s F, if we kept people from swimming/surfing, etc., we can stem this “problem”....

[hawg-farmer - FR..October 1998]

appeal to authority
You said that because an authority thinks something, it must therefore be true.
It’s important to note that this fallacy should not be used to dismiss the claims of experts, or scientific consensus. Appeals to authority are not valid arguments, but nor is it reasonable to disregard the claims of experts who have a demonstrated depth of knowledge unless one has a similar level of understanding and/or access to empirical evidence. However it is, entirely possible that the opinion of a person or institution of authority is wrong; therefore the authority that such a person or institution holds does not have any intrinsic bearing upon whether their claims are true or not.