Posted on 09/17/2017 6:27:14 PM PDT by LS
Updated voter registration stats.
*These are all comparing November to the most current available---usually it's September. FL is up to date to the day. PA's last report was in May.
*The numbers represent NET gains or losses. In many cases, thought not all, both parties lost members (though indies have not gained, indicating voter roll purges, elimination of the dead & those who moved). In AZ and DE there were absolute gains.
*Party registration is not available for some key states: WI, MI, VA, TX, and MN. This makes it impossible to evaluate the trends with absolute certainty, but . . . as you see, it's pretty close to absolute.
AZ Rs net +11,314 since Nov. Both parties saw solid gains. Rs gained 24,919! So much for AZ "going blue."
CO D net +20. That's right, 20. Here's the bad news: since 2015, CO went from R+5 to D+1, but this is the first month it has flattened out, so maybe CO is ready to move back red a little.
DE Ds net +365 Both parties saw absolute gains.
FL Rs net +55,498 This is extremely important: both parties were down, but Ds have lost 80,000 off their rolls since November, and Rs have gained EVERY single month, averaging a net gain of about 6,000 per month. At this rate, FL will be red by 2020.
IA Rs net +14,363 Here, again, Rs have gained every month.
ME Rs net +1,201 It's not a lot, but Trump lost ME by 23,000 votes. By election time 2020, this would more than swing that.
NC Rs +60,918 Like FL, NC has shown a steadily widening gap since November and another state where Ds have lost 80,000 off their rolls in nine months.
NH Rs net +6,511 Another state where this almost certainly assures a Trump win. He lost NH by 2,700 votes (and we now know a lot of that was fraud.)
NJ Rs net +22,351 This was a shocker. Rs gained absolutely 287 voters while Ds lost 22,065. It's not a big enough trend to flip the state . . . yet.
NM Rs net +19,777 Another surprise. Rs gained about 2,000 just from two months ago. A very doable flip in 2020.
NV Rs net +19,799 Still another state where month by month Rs cut into the D voter advantage.
PA Rs net +101,000 This is old data from May, but it's still fun to report it.
In short, the Ds had only ONE state (DE) trending their way while CO, despite a net advantage, represents a serious downward trend for Ds from the previous year. Again, without MI, WI, VA, and TX especially, we can't say with total certainty, but as of now, if the election were held today, Trump would have about 320 electoral votes with NH and ME likely flipping, NM and NV being extremely close and expanding his lead bigly in FL, IA, AZ, and PA.
In NN, ME, NV and FL, if current trends continue, these states would again be Republican states in 2020. Wait, did you notice something? AZ, NM, NV, FL are heavily Hispanic states . . . yet trending R?
(My sources are the various SecState websites)
Good work here! Thank you for posting.
In this part of Pennsylvania, it is prudent to register Democrat so your property tax assessment doesn’t get diddled with. How you vote is quite another matter. I suspect we aren’t the only locality like this.
CO is up 20% democrATs because of pot.
Yeah, evident from last election. Now throw in 101,000 more on top of that!
Just wondering, just how much stronger/better is voter registration(s) as an indicator than polls?
Always a good day when dems are on the decline.
Prayers for Virginia and our Gov race in a few weeks.
So I just have one question, are the drops in RAT registration a result of people reregistering in another party, DTS or Indy? The reason that I am asking is the nearly “universal” problem every state has in dropping anyone, even the dead from the voter rolls.
Don’t know.
PRRI a (yes) polling and analytic company found that with white voters, party affiliation was THE biggest predictor of a vote for Trump (93% of Rs).
So I’d say it’s much, much stronger. It’s what I used to predict Trump’s win almost to the electoral vote in 2016.
R gains not a factor. Democrats will find thousands of uncounted ballots in the trunks of their cars like comedian Franken’s people did.
Do you have information handy as to which states do their
voter registration by party and which states do not?
(or at least on how many do vs. how many do not)
I am in Georgia and we do not register to vote by party
and it is quite foreign to me to have to do that.
Wrong. Voter reg the single biggest predictor of an outcome.
BTW, neither Franken nor Ayotte’s elections would survive the #s I’m seeing.
Yes, among the battleground states. These, plus MD and OR, do reg by party.
I didn’t look at HA, AK, or the rest of the South which aren’t competitive. I can’t recall about MO, but since both Minion & Trump carried it, I’m not worried.
So the only ones that really might be cause for concern about missing data are GA, VA, MI, WI, and TX.
Do you have any data on how this compares with previous years, say 2009 and 2013? Were D registrations up because of Dem administration? Are we seeing more purging of the rolls now leading to the decline in D registrations?
Very interesting LS. Do you think there are any secondary implications in primary voting by crossovers that play a part in this trend in the states where it is practical?
Bookmark
Apparently, 28 states (plus DC) require party declaration and 22 do not.
States that do not:
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois,
Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri,
Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee,
Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.
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source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
This is delightful. Thank you.
I check the Iowa voter registration numbers on the first of every month when they are updated. You are correct that the Republican margin has grown every month this year.
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/regstat.html
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