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Babalu Blog (Cuban news): The demographics expert who predicted that Hispanics will always vote Democrat has second thoughts

First found this article per the above blog; so I'm posting the original from the New Republic. New Republic is liberal, Babalu Blog certainly is NOT.

1 posted on 09/17/2017 7:17:27 AM PDT by BeadCounter
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To: BeadCounter

Redoing the Electoral Math
I argued that demographics favored the Democrats. I was wrong.
By John B. Judis
September 14, 2017


To be clear, the author now thinks his demographics projections may not hold up.


2 posted on 09/17/2017 7:19:02 AM PDT by BeadCounter
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To: BeadCounter

“Steve Phillips of the Center for American Progress, a leading proponent of the latter view, argues that the Democrats doomed themselves in 2016 with “a strategic error: prioritizing the pursuit of wavering whites over investing in and inspiring African American voters.””

Yeah, that’s the ticket, spend all your resource on a $hit group of people, who delight in killing each other, that represent 13% of the population. I hope that that’s the strategy they pursue, because with Obola fresh in the white people’s minds, coupled with Trump’s successes, 2018 and 2020 will be GOP blowouts.


3 posted on 09/17/2017 7:23:14 AM PDT by vette6387 (LOCK HER UP! COMEY TOO.)
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To: BeadCounter

The Democrats stand to lose a lot if the minority voters stop voting identity and start voting issues. Even with the Democrats’ constant shrieks of “Racism!”, minorities aren’t stupid—some of them do see the Democrat tactics quite clearly.

On our part, we have only to ask minorities if the Democrats have done anything to improve their situation and convince them to look at issues, not race.


4 posted on 09/17/2017 7:23:59 AM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
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To: BeadCounter

Well the whites are going to overwhelmingly go for Trump in 2020. This is because the Democrats and liberals in general continue to trash white people and try to make them feel guilty for even being white. White people are fed up with this hate campaign that the Left has launched against them.


5 posted on 09/17/2017 7:24:03 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: BeadCounter

This author is tacitly admitting the Left has created a monster

They have used divisive racial politics for decades, and now it has gotten out of control. They have empowered the radical #BLM types so much, they are scaring many of the whites out of their own party.


8 posted on 09/17/2017 7:48:14 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: BeadCounter

A winning strategy for Republicans (in the States) would be to stir up the hornets nest by (no specific order):

vigorously advancing Right to Work;

tax code simplification and reduction;

reducing regulations and eliminating fees / licenses just to do business (call it Regulatory Decapture);

no sales tax on non-retail sale of used goods (to complement reducing regulations on garage and estate sales, so they can’t claim that they need to to make sure people are paying sales taxes);

eliminating civil asset forfeiture entirely and only letting the government collect (non-excessive) fines as permitted and defined by statute;

eliminating hate speech laws entirely;

eliminating queer etc from civil rights laws;

eliminating support in laws for genderism;

strengthening castle laws;

constitutional carry everywhere;

clarifying the formation, rights and obligations of impromptu citizen militias during times of public distress (as distinct from individuals just defending their own homes) AND keeping the rules simple;

Advancing Voter ID till the cows come home;

vigorously enforcing immigration laws under the banner that what’s good to the Mexican government to do is good for the people of the United States to do too;

supporting deportation of illegals;

opposing importing of Islam;

punishing theft of social security numbers for any purpose, including for illegals trying to get jobs;

Welfare to work;

Rip out SJW crap from public education;

No multi-lingual education without English proficiency FIRST;

Restore occupational education;

Fail students who don’t show minimum proficiency in English grammar and math;

Ending federal funding and regulation of Public Schools;

Support for home schooling;

and so forth...

You know, all the stuff that would make being Republican truly distinct from being any shade of Democrap....


9 posted on 09/17/2017 7:57:50 AM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: BeadCounter

After decades of minority voter registration initiatives and motor voter laws, over 70% of registered voters are white.

I strongly suggest the Democrats continue to force them to choose who they will identify and associate with, all the while lecturing them on the fact that white people are the root of all evil in the world.


10 posted on 09/17/2017 8:01:47 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: BeadCounter
Steve Phillips of the Center for American Progress, a leading proponent of the latter view, argues that the Democrats doomed themselves in 2016 with “a strategic error: prioritizing the pursuit of wavering whites over investing in and inspiring African American voters.”

Steve Phillips is wrong. I didn't see Democrats pursue wavering whites at all.

13 posted on 09/17/2017 8:33:30 AM PDT by FreeReign
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To: BeadCounter

Recent demographic changes do not include an increase in the relative number of Black citizens.


15 posted on 09/17/2017 9:08:03 AM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: BeadCounter

Siding with illegal aliens over the citizens and the rule of law is not a winning strategy.


16 posted on 09/17/2017 9:09:23 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizen Means Born Here Of Citizen Parents - Know Islam, No Peace -No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: BeadCounter

From Article: “There is no need, in short, for Democrats to choose between appealing to white workers and courting people of color. By making a strong and effective case for economic justice, they can do both at the same time.”

Just WHO does John B. Judis think is paying for the import of ‘new democrats’? I’ll tell you who - The American People - the folks democrats play for fools year after year after year...

Here’s a partial list:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3585376/posts

1. $14 billion to $22 billion dollars are spent each year on welfare to illegal aliens (that’s Billion with a ‘B’)

3. $7.5 billion dollars are spent each year on Medicaid for illegal aliens.

4. $12 billion dollars are spent each year on primary and secondary school education for children here illegally and they still cannot speak a word of English!

5. $27 billion dollars are spent each year for education for the American-born children of illegal aliens, known as anchor babies.

6. $3 Million Dollars ‘PER DAY’ is spent to incarcerate illegal aliens. That’s $1.2 Billion a year.

7. 28% percent of all federal prison inmates are illegal aliens.

8. $190 billion dollars are spent each year on illegal aliens for welfare & social services by the American taxpayers.

9. $200 billion dollars per year in suppressed American wages are caused by the illegal aliens.

10. The illegal aliens in the United States have a crime rate that’s two and a half times that of white non-illegal aliens. In particular, their children, are going to make a huge additional crime problem in t he US.

11. During the year 2005, there were 8 to 10 MILLION illegal aliens that crossed our southern border with as many as 19,500 illegal aliens from other terrorist countries. Over 10,000 of those were middle-eastern terrorists. Millions of pounds of drugs, cocaine, meth, heroin, crack, guns, and marijuana crossed into the U.S. from the southern border.

12. The National Policy Institute, estimates that the total cost of mass deportation would be between $206 and $230 billion, or an average cost of between $41 and $46 billion annually over a five year period.

13. In 2006, illegal aliens sent home $65 BILLION in remittances back to their countries of origin, to their families and friends.

14. The dark side of illegal immigration: Nearly one million sex crimes are committed by illegal immigrants in the United States!

Total cost a whopping $538.3 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR !


17 posted on 09/17/2017 9:10:04 AM PDT by GOPJ ("$3 Million Dollars 'PER DAY' is spent to incarcerate criminal illegals.That's $1.2 Billion a year.")
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To: BeadCounter
...Democrats doomed themselves in 2016 with “a strategic error: prioritizing the pursuit of wavering whites over investing in and inspiring African American voters.”

Well, how is that latter tactic working out for the NFL, NBA, and ESPN? :)

20 posted on 09/17/2017 9:15:19 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: BeadCounter

“There is no need for Democrats to choose between appealing to white workers and courting people of color.”

Really? How?

How do you “court people of color” AND “appeal to white workers”.

Don’t you have to offer “special” benefits to “people of color” to “appeal” to them? benefits NOT offered to “working whites”? And does “courting” “people of color” agoing to resonate with “working whites”> How “appealing” is that?

And worst of all, the above sentence implies that “whites” WORK and “people of color” do not!

How racists is that!

That sentence from the article is the very embodiment of identity politics, and is the very antithesis of the stated thesis of the article, namely, that Dems need to abandon identity politics or keep on losing.


23 posted on 09/17/2017 9:36:14 AM PDT by catnipman ( Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: BeadCounter

Interesting. I hadn’t given much thought to intermarriage (even though my wife is from the other side of the world), but yes, Hispanics outside of California (and New York City) VOTED HEAVILY REPUBLICAN in 2014, roughly 40-45% Republican throughout the South, and that was when we had candidates, like Dan Patrick in Texas, sounding like Trump (did) when it came to the border. Intermarriage probably played a major role in that.

Whites, on the other handed, voted as a block, 75-89% Republican, in part because of people like Dan Patrick. So, even with the worst-case numbers for the Republicans (40% Hispanic and 75% white), the Dems are DESTROYED. In fact, it’s only the black vote that keeps them viable in the South.

So, yea, with the Dems going HARD-LEFT, the obvious thing for the Republicans to do is send a message to the what was the Democrat white, working class base, and reel them in. Of course the Left and the Media know this (even if Republican leaders are clueless to it), so they continue to call ANY Republican who sends messages to the working class Alt-Right extremists...because they know that the Democrats cannot win if the Republicans are able to nail down white voters. Republicans must continue to be stupid and not try to reach those white voters...or the Dems are dead politically.


25 posted on 09/17/2017 10:21:00 AM PDT by BobL (In Honor of the NeverTrumpers, I declare myself as FR's first 'Imitation NeverTrumper')
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To: BeadCounter

This is huge on a number of levels. First, he repudiates the “demographics is destiny” view by noting people don’t CONTINUE to identify as “Latinos” or “Asians”-—just as many surveys show and just as all of American history has shown.

I’m not Pollyanna and don’t think “Press one for English” has ANY place in our society, but if incentives are properly structured, yes, immigrants of all sorts (except perhaps Jihadists) will Americanize over time.

He asks it’s “whether Democrats, without abandoning their commitment to racial justice and to America’s immigrants, can succeed in crafting a message and an agenda that steers clear of the liberal version of racial stereotyping.”

No. You cannot simultaneously try to make people into victims and victors.

Second, he notes that the “minorities only” approach killed D chances with even white progressives. Gee, imagine that-—even white “progressives” finally get tired of being poor and being called racists.


26 posted on 09/17/2017 10:45:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: BeadCounter

Bottom line, If you are not black or queer you are not welcome in the Democrat party


29 posted on 09/17/2017 10:48:09 AM PDT by bert (K.E.; N.P.; GOPc;WASP .... The Fourth Estate is the Fifth Column)
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