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Posted on 09/16/2017 5:47:46 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Jose has been hanging around, waiting for attention in the wake of Hurricane Irma. Newcomer Maria threatens to impact the Caribbean Islands already devastated by Hurricane Irma, and brushed by Jose. Hurricane Jose threatens to brush or impact New England. Lee appears to be a fish storm at this time.
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| Forecast Discussions | Forecast Discussions |
Rousseau, the main city in my pictures, is on the southwest side of the island map. The 2000 to 4000 foot elevation at the center of the island will help shield the population much better than if that city was on the northeast side.
That being said, the elevation will concentrate the runoff from Hurricane rains no matter where you are on that island.
Wow I just was this is a Cat 5...prayers up for those on the Island!
Just damn, that couldn’t be more of a direct hit on an island than that.
I was searching for some images of Marigot on Dominica. A bit confusing as it seems every one of the leeward islands also has a Marigot.
The Roseau River (main river in capital) has flooded the streets of the capital, bursting through residents’ doors #HurricaneMaria #Dominica
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKDIglLUMAAY4MB.jpg:small
Interesting map showing all Cat 5’s and where they were located when they became 5’s.
Any reports from Base-Terre? Looks like the south side of the island is going to get hit very hard.
Keep in mind that this is a blip to a Cat 5 and it is tracking to pass directly over the US Territory of Puerto Rico southwest to northeast with a storm with a nasty tight center but a width as big as the whole island.
Kevz Politics
@KevzPolitics
29m
UPDATE: The main hospital in Roseau, Dominica has lost its roof
View details ·
The guy on the radio in Dominica said “How do we solve a problem like Maria”. A reference to Maria Von Trapp (The Sound of Music), who coincidentally died today.
A few too many things are falling too conveniently in place at the moment to be coincidence.
Maybe it’s like Waimea in Hawaii. It is a stream denoted “Water Of Life” and every island has one.
I don’t know. I can only follow this in bits and pieces tonight. (Other responsibilities.) I’m just glad I’m not in the path of this storm, and praying for those who are.
Noun: marigot (plural marigots) A side-stream or tributary rivulet in West Africa.
Thanks...
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were able to fly a single pass
from northwest to southeast through the eye of Maria just prior to
0000 UTC. The aircraft found a peak SFMR wind of 139 kt in the
northwest eyewall, i.e. category 5 intensity. Raw objective
T-numbers from UW/CIMSS reached as high as T7.3 just before the
center moved over land. Based on these data, the initial wind speed
was increased to 140 kt on the earlier special advisory, and that
intensity is maintained for this advisory, although some slight
weakening may have occurred as the small core of the hurricane
passed over Dominica. Since the center has moved over land, the
aircraft has not been able to make a second pass through the eye.
The aircraft will be in the storm a few more hours and should be
able to provide additional center fixes once the eye moves west of
Dominica.
Maria is forecast to remain within an environment of low wind shear
and over warm water during the next couple of days. Given these
favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, Maria is expected to
remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are
possible due during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles. Land
interaction and a slight increase in shear are likely to cause some
gradual weakening after Maria moves over the southwestern Atlantic
in 3 to 4 days.
Maria is moving west-northwestward or 300/8 kt. A weak ridge
located over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the
hurricane west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the
center of Maria is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion
of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Maria to turn
northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 5. The track
guidance is in good agreement and little change was required to the
NHC track forecast through 72 hours. At days 4 and 5, the global
model envelope has shifted slightly eastward and the NHC forecast
was adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the HFIP
correct consensus and ECMWF model.
Ominous...
PM Skerrit to @teleSURtv #Dominica is devastated We do not know how many dead there will be We have been brutally beaten by #HurricaneMaria
Dang, I take my eyes off the tropics for three days and lookie what blows up. Gotta get up to speed on this beast.
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