Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part IV

Interesting track on Jose. That map shows it heading for Florida. Joe Bastardi thought maybe North Carolina.

541 posted on 09/10/2017 8:54:05 PM PDT by Parley Baer

Thanks! Great view of the Hillsborough River as well as the bay and the port. We face south so Irma’s winds are not as worrisome as they would be if we faced north. They’re mostly going past us from the east right now as is the rain. We had a tropical storm a few months ago and the rain and wind were blowing right at us. There’s a small “gutter” along the balcony doors that have little drain holes. The water was coming so hard, it couldn’t hardly keep up so there was gurgling going on. No leaks, so it was ok. Stay safe, too!

542 posted on 09/10/2017 8:54:40 PM PDT by boatbums (The Law is a storm which wrecks your hopes of self-salvation, but washes you upon the Rock of Ages.)

telecom companies now have disaster units they can deploy to relay the signal after a tower goes down. They basically just run in and turn on the generators and send a signal if it’s safe to do so.

543 posted on 09/10/2017 8:55:01 PM PDT by CJ Wolf (My analysis may not be as good as others.)

To: Bodleian_Girl

yeah, you are talking to yourself too.

544 posted on 09/10/2017 8:58:11 PM PDT by CJ Wolf (My analysis may not be as good as others.)

To: Battle Hymn of the Republic

we shall see... they said Harvey was a non-event too in the beginning.

There are three distinct threats from a hurricane.

The storm surge is the deadliest threat. I live 35 feet above sea level and 10 miles from salt water, so I don't really worry about storm surge. When you see evacuations, the evacuees are typically fleeing from the storm surge.

The second threat is wind. Wind damage is often widespread and can compromise structures. Typically, this means that shingles are blown off roofs allowing rain to seep in a house. Wind is also the major factor causing power outages when it blows tree branches on power lines or knocking down the power lines directly. The thing I fear most from a hurricane is being without power for an extended period of time.

Rain is the final threat, but it usually threatens the smallest number of people. Flood damage is certainly costly, but hurricanes often blow through an area before dumping enough rain to cause floods. Rain is also a more predictable threat than wind. Wind damages structures over a wide area with no discrimination. Flood waters affect homes near drainage arteries (creeks and rivers). If your home is high enough, you probably don't have to worry about floods.

Harvey was far enough from Houston that its winds were a non-issue. But Harvey looped around SE Texas and dumped rain for four days. Rain was the threat from Harvey. And I don't think anyone was under the impression that Harvey's rains wouldn't be an issue. For the overwhelming majority of Houston residents, their houses are high enough that rising waters aren't a danger. City officials prepared Houston residents for 30 inches or rain, which would match the largest floods in recent memory (Tropical Storm Allison). In reality, Harvey dumped up to 50 inches of rain. The people that usually flood had water, but a lot of people who don't normally flood had water, too. But for 98% of Houston residents, Harvey was just an extended summer break. Schools were closed and the city was shut down, but the people were comfortably sitting at home watching TV in air conditioning. They couldn't go anywhere because the roads were flooded, but they weren't in danger themselves.

So to the extent that people thought Harvey wasn't a problem, it was that Harvey wouldn't bring its high winds to a densely populated area. Remember, the wind threat is the one that is widespread. The risk of flooding was known, but even with 50 inches of in four days, 98% of Houston homes didn't get any water in them. And of the people that flooded, it wasn't the first time for many of them.

Don't say that Harvey caught Houston by surprise.

545 posted on 09/10/2017 9:00:03 PM PDT by SSS Two

ventusky has it pretty much threatening the east coast most of the next week. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=36.8;-77.4;5&l=wind-900hpa&t=20170918/09&m=gfs&w=fast

Be prepared.

546 posted on 09/10/2017 9:00:34 PM PDT by CJ Wolf (My analysis may not be as good as others.)

Self ping for a reminder. :-)

547 posted on 09/10/2017 9:03:07 PM PDT by Bodleian_Girl (Don't check the news, check Cernovich on Twitter)

prayers for you. Be safe.

548 posted on 09/10/2017 9:09:13 PM PDT by CJ Wolf

549 posted on 09/10/2017 9:10:30 PM PDT by CJ Wolf

To: Bodleian_Girl

550 posted on 09/10/2017 9:13:18 PM PDT by CJ Wolf

Checking in from Sebring. We got the eyewall at an oblique angle. 100+ mph winds for about an hour. Ficus trees are shredded. No roof leaks. House is solid. Lost power just after 7pm. No water pressure. AT&T cell service sucks. It’s sketchy on a good day. Wife’s Version running hot and fast. Hope everyone is safe. Later.

551 posted on 09/10/2017 9:15:22 PM PDT by Islander7 (There is no septic system so vile, so filthy, the left won't drink from to further their agenda)

I see now. I didn’t realize it was due south of that area when the talked about the northerly track.

552 posted on 09/10/2017 9:21:50 PM PDT by ilgipper

To: The 10th man

From the radar on the NOAA weather site, it looks like the rain is slowing down in Orlando. They’ve received about 9 inches this afternoon and tonight.

No further word from my sister there in Sanford.

553 posted on 09/10/2017 9:22:20 PM PDT by MulberryDraw

Checking in from Sebring. We got the eyewall at an oblique angle. 100+ mph winds for about an hour. Ficus trees are shredded.

The highest winds reported from the Sebring airport on Sunday were 46 m.p.h.

554 posted on 09/10/2017 9:28:29 PM PDT by SSS Two

Agree! However...Irma WAS devastating for the Caribbean islands before it got to Florida. I know no one has a crystal ball that tells them exactly what a storm will or will not do or go. Seeing as this came right after Harvey, fears were heightened. There was the possibility that this one could have remained a Cat 5 when it got to Miami and like Andrew was, it would have been extremely destructive. The problem with a storm this big is that NOWHERE in the entire state was "safe". I guess as long as we have older homes and buildings that are not up to current hurricane codes, people will be in danger from even less strong storms so some sensible warnings are necessary and evacuations will have to happen for certain zones. But, not even evacuation shelters are always safe sometimes.

A little LESS hype and a LOT more facts would be appreciated, but let's face it, boring TV can't keep the viewers and so "news" people have to be actors now. Melodrama sells.

555 posted on 09/10/2017 9:28:48 PM PDT by boatbums (The Law is a storm which wrecks your hopes of self-salvation, but washes you upon the Rock of Ages.)

To: MulberryDraw

I live in the Williamsburg area of Orland. In the SW portion of Orange county. Expecting it to get bad here over the next hour, can hear the wind picking up. Looks like the east eye wall is going to pass over us.

556 posted on 09/10/2017 9:28:54 PM PDT by Paradox (Don't call them mainstream, there is nothing mainstream about the MSM.)

557 posted on 09/10/2017 9:35:24 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)

To: MulberryDraw

Doesn't the eye look like she's passing in between Tampa and Orlando?

558 posted on 09/10/2017 9:38:24 PM PDT by snarkytart

To: NonValueAdded

FPL finally ran out of miracle fixes. Lost power a few minutes ago for good now it appears. Gotta give it up for Verizon Wireless. They're still functioning.

Wow! FPL restored power as I was typing! But over 200,000 without power in Brevard County.

Winds really picking up again...

559 posted on 09/10/2017 9:41:37 PM PDT by kristinn (Serving ten to life in paradise)

Looters should always be shot stone cold dead.

People scoff and utter inanities about the inadequacy of deterrent measures, but their words gain some traction only because what measures have to-date been enacted as “deterrent” are, themselves, more of a mockery of the concept than anything else.

You enact deterrent measures that give people loose bowels just hearing them announced by the local newscaster — I guaran-damn-TEE you’ll have ghostly quiet on the streets.

That notion is only mocked because it hasn’t been tried.

People who go out looting aren’t doing it in defiance of death or they wouldn’t be doing it. There ain’t a pair of Air Jordans nor any TV on earth worth being dead over.

560 posted on 09/10/2017 9:44:42 PM PDT by HKMk23 (You ask how to fight an idea? Well, I'll tell you how: with another idea!)

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