I agree... I think, with storm surge, the fact that Katrina WAS a CAT5, not that far off-shore, contributed. Once a storm builds up that wall of water, with a super low center pressure, it doesn’t all just go away when the pressure increases. It keeps moving, with the storm...
It’s a tough call... but, I think the “authorities” go too far in pushing everyone to evacuate. To where?
There is NO FREAKING WAY I’m staying in ANY building that has ANY chance of being in storm surge. I’ve seen storm surge. There is NO truly safe place to be in a surge. But, outside of that? Most houses are safer than cheaply built motel rooms. Unless I’m looking at 120+mph winds WHERE I’M AT? I’m staying put.
But, that’s just me. Everyone needs to make their own judgements based on their own tolerance levels, special needs, health factors, etc,etc, ect...
Which is why I don’t like very generalize, government “mandatory” evacuations.
I agree with everything you said.
I’ve seen “experts” offer explanations for Katrina’s surge but most seem to miss the point. They focus on CAT 3 and 130 MPH wind. They don’t give as much consideration to the storm’s history before going inland. Katrina was very large and a Cat 5 soon before going ashore. The wind may slow but it takes longer for the storm surge to settle back down.
I’ve seen the damage caused by surge — Katrina, Ivan, Camille — so I know I don’t want to be anywhere near a surge. It can cause the most devastation in hurricanes.
And if it is less than 120 MPH, I don’t care to evacuate. Sometimes we just have to guess and hope it’s less than than when it comes ashore. An 80 MPH hurricane in the hot summer isn’t so bad. It’s actually kind of nice.
I also agree that people to make their own judgments concerning evacuation.
Which is why I don’t like very generalize, government “mandatory” evacuations.
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Nobody likes anything “mandatory”, myself included. I’m coming from this with a different perspective - that of police/fire/EMS. They tend to be viewed as a unit/government, but they are individual people too with homes, families, property at risk. Being “essential” personnel, they HAVE to be on the job and their lives are at risk.
What many do not realize is that at a certain wind mph, it is not safe for the fire trucks, rescue equipment, manpower to be out and about and they have to stop responding to calls. As someone who has fielded calls from desperate people (during a hurricane), I can assure you it’s pretty awful when there is nothing you can do to help them .... whether they were stubborn & stayed put on their own or got caught in circumstances that put them in danger, when someone is pleading for help because their life is at risk, all thoughts of “self-inflicted” tend to fall by the wayside.
My point with all of this rambling is that the authorities make the best decisions they can to be in a position to truly help people if they need it, but certain areas/conditions prevent them from helping or put the lives at risk (always at risk, but this situation is to an unacceptable level) of those tasked with rescues and providing help. They make the calls on ‘mandatory’ evacs which, if nothing else, puts those in the areas being evacuated ‘on notice’ that help cannot and is not coming. People ultimately make their own choices, but the odds of injury/death go up substantially if mandatory evac orders are ignored.
What if the mandatory evac order doesn’t ‘verify’ as being necessary because the storm track changes? Those that have left often get pissed off & start blaming the authorities because it was “unnecessary”, but the fire/police/EMS are relieved when that occurs because there will be no (or fewer) desperate calls, injuries, or loss of life.
Obviously, you’ve got respect for storm surges (amazing the number of people that do not) and you are totally correct that “Everyone needs to make their own judgements based on their own tolerance levels, special needs, health factors, etc,etc, ect...” My only issue is that for some people, they only learn through “experience” and sometimes that experience proves deadly the first time. I always liked what Will Rogers said (& find it to be true):
There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.
I would change “men” to “people” because women can be just as stubborn, if not more so .... the only caveat being they don’t pee on electric fences the way a man might. :-)
My 2 cents .... from my own experience. YMMV.