I agree that it is unlikely to go very far off the projected path. But I will tell you that there is a hell of a lot of difference if it goes into Miami or Tampa. Weren’t they saying Miami yesterday morning? There’s also a lot of difference if you live in Destin and it goes in there instead of Naples. So my point stands.
I am not “cherry-picking rogue storms to confuse people.” What I stated is truth. You could pick most hurricanes over the last 30 years and you would find that I am correct. My evacuation plans for both Katrina and Ivan were based on the experts. I wish I had done the opposite in both cases.
Lighten up. I don’t get off in confusing people. It’s just a discussion board. I am west of the cone and I will still be keeping an eye on it regardless of what the “experts” say.
Good idea... If I lived in Destin, I'd be puckered a little right now. I DO expect a LATE turn. Which means, Destin landfall is still in play. IF, it goes that far west, there'll be a lot more time to re-intensify.
That said, when/if the "turn" comes, I think it will be fairly sharp. So, yea.... Tampa area is probably still the most likely.
Bottom line is: NO ONE really knows. Which, is the big problem I have with telling millions to evacuate. To where? What place is "safe"? NO WAY I'm staying ANYWHERE NEAR a storm surge area. Outside of that? I'm only going as far as needed to find a sturdy structure. For MANY people, that's the home they're in.