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To: John S Mosby
There are factors here well beyond wind speed. Katrina was 'only' a Cat 3 but had so much surge that it caused more damage in Mississippi than Camille. Likewise with Ike - it wasn't technically a major hurricane at landfall but it was the third most damaging hurricane prior to Harvey and Irma this year. Sandy wasn't even technically a hurricane at landfall. Also, the overall size of the storm matters a lot also. Camille and Labor Day were fairly compact, intense storms. Katrina and Ike and Sandy were large, so is Irma. And finally, there are far more people (and real estate) in the Gulf than there were for Camille and Labor Day. You cannot view storms through the single keyhole of wind speed.

Are the TV mets hyping this? Of course. Does that mean the underlying danger is not real? Of course not.

2,056 posted on 09/09/2017 6:02:03 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Molasses reef off key largo 35 knots sustained gusts to 39
85.8 water temp.
Dry Totrugas—Pulaski—22 sustained 35 gusts
baro 29.73
all the area in between is where the storm will hit and we have nada since its run by noaa which is a disaster for data buoys.
the big one sombrero reef has been out for months not they don’t bother to fix it.
all these data buoys need to be privatized.


2,161 posted on 09/09/2017 7:55:30 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave!MAGA!)
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To: dirtboy

Well aware—Open sea sailor-— not a “keyhole” viewer. Take in multiple factors not on some geek’s billion dollar model reliance— things like sea surface pressure readings from the bridge, sea water temperature to depth, surface wind speed/gusts. Not relying on aircraft dropsondes, which don’t “fall” very well as high tech as they are. The hubris of high tech is tragic, and demonstrative of the intangible nature of intuitive and cognitive capabilities of man. Like being able to fly a plane by GPS flummoxing some tech weenie.
This is a big hurricane, pushing a wall of water even as it is losing strength and may revive. Things change... all the time. And they can’t always be quantified, despite one’s desire and reliance on tech to achieve a modicum of certitude. Damage— yeah that happens, to things & mostly to people-whether in great numbers (or great expectation poorly built overbuilt communities— no matter), especially to those who cannot restrain their emotions, again out of hubris, to a proper padded room and not visit it on others.


2,212 posted on 09/09/2017 8:58:22 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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