Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II

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[NautiNurse]

Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.

Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.

Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

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NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Melbourne, FL
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar Jacksonville, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Charleston, SC
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Wilmington, NC, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Morehead City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Norfolk, VA
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Buoy Data NC/SC/GA

Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki

Hurricane Irma Live Thread I

[Romulus]

NHC always gives the benefit of the doubt to worst-case, so no one can say “I wasn’t warned”. The usual case with a landfalling storm is that windspeed diminishes rapidly once it’s a few miles in. A landfalling 3 might be a 1 when it gets to your front door. That said, Irma is a very healthy storm, with no high terrain to inhibit it, and lovely warm water close by. Irma may well go down fighting. If your house is up to current code, recently built and in excellent condition, and if your location is high (relatively speaking; this is FL after all) your threat is not wind per se but falling/flying objects. Wind of even 100 mph can be terrifically destructive on trees and large branches, so consider carefully if any are near you. Palm trees do relatively better; pine trees snap like toothpicks. Saturated soil loosens its grip on roots so that an entire tree can be toppled — especially in cases in which the tree’s diseased or termite-infested. Wind-driven branches over your roof can tear off shingles and let water in (so trim them back now). Even a healthy, mature live oak can lose limbs large enough to crush a structure or you. A falling tree can easily take out windows or a roof, crush your car, block a road, etc. And there are always tornadoes to think about. I have evacuated only once (Katrina) and as a matter of principle would resist in most cases, because being on site to mitigate damage can be important if you own nice things that cannot be replaced. Furthermore looters will be looking for your house before government allows you to return. Would I stay in my well-built house with a cat 3 coming ashore 70 miles away? It would depend on trajectory, as I have some trees that worry me. I would want to have bug-out preparations fully in place, including a safe destination close by. Are there neighbors who’d take you in? Are there neighbors you want to help? Do you have family or animals that need you?

It is a hard call, which no one else can make for you. I can only promise that your storm will be different from everybody else’s, and must be evaluated on the unique circumstances as they factor in your life. I’ve done my best to outline points you should be pondering. Good luck.

[alancarp]

EVACUATION NOTICE:

FOX 24 Charleston‏Verified account @FOX24Charleston 28m28 minutes ago

#BREAKING: Georgia governor has issued mandatory evacuation order for city of Savannah, other coastal areas, starting Saturday. (AP)

[alancarp]

Seeing more info on Georgia now... all areas East of I-95 are included in the order.

[Himyar]

The Delorme books are awesome. I have one for every state I go to. They have saved me getting stuck many times. GPS may be the greatest thing but give me a compass and a good map.

[PeteB570]

I mentioned ice storms in my last post to you and you just mentioned pines.

Old pines are usually pretty steady in high winds. Tops whip around and some branches break off. Problem for all trees around here is lots of rain before a high wind event. It softens the ground and allows trees to be blown over roots and all.

You can get forecasted wind directions and then go outside and take a look at the trees around your house and potential fall areas. Nothing to get spooked about but just wouldn’t let somebody sleep in an upstairs bedroom that might catch a tree.

And ice storms - don’t park under a pine tree. The branches get weighted down with ice and when they break a good many of them spin and come down branch first. If your car is under it it might take a branch right through it.

[Paul R.]

Could Pres. Trump order that National Forest campgrounds and such be made available at, say, 1/2 regular rates, for up to 2 weeks, for FL evacuees?

[DouglasKC]

Also the high to the north is being broken down by a cold front moving east from the mainland. Seems like where those two meet, cold front trough and Irma, will be the point she heads north. Simply because the high will obviously be gone at the point. In fact, irma could even turn to the NE. And might even turn as early as Nassau. At this point, that is our only hope.

Thanks....so okay all that happens but why north? Why doesn't it just keep going in the direction it's going?

[dirtboy]

This shows the setup well. The high is in orange, the trof is in blue at the top. You can see the high nosing out over Florida:

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Bookmark

[NautiNurse]

Posting this from Arcadia. Most of the retirement trailer parks are empty, Windows shuddered.

Arcadia folks remember all too well their surprise visit from Charley.

[MplsSteve]

I’ve been out on Tybee Island. Nice place. Fort Pulaski nearby too.

With the sole exception of being able to hunker down somewhere in Fort Pulaski (yeah, like that’d happen), I wouldn’t wanna be anywhere from Tybee inland to Savannah. Lots of lowland marshes.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the link—good info.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for your first-hand report about FL Turnpike. What is your destination eta?

[DouglasKC]

This shows the setup well. The high is in orange, the trof is in blue at the top. You can see the high nosing out over Florida:

Thanks good map..but same question...why north? It's not "falling" into that trough...why wouldn't it just keep going west north west toward Louisiana?

[janetjanet998]

12z EURO more west into the upper keys

[alancarp]

Joe Bastardi’s tweets are increasingly concerned for Miami. Notes that eastern model tracks are already looking bad since hurricane is tracking south of those paths.

[EVO X]

Got a brother in Naples.

Snowbird here. I am somewhat familiar with the west coast of Florida since I perch near Tampa. Apple map isn't showing any traffic delays on the west coast I75 corridor south of Tampa. Lots of delays on the east coast I95 and F91.

[Jim W N]

Thanks.

FYI, for anyone else who asks, the site you gave + “click on MIMIC-TC” gets them there.