Hurricane Irma Live Thread

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[sheikdetailfeather]

http://www.wftv.com/watch-live

[novemberslady]

good morning
Thanks for the thread

[janetjanet998]

it should say Irma..not ignore..lol

[janetjanet998]

that might be the UKmet model....I wouldn’t call it the “best” but its not the worst either..i

[pinkandgreenmom]

Checking in from Clearwater, FL.

Amazon pantry can deliver water next Monday. Ugh. Husband and I headed to Publix now. Not sure what we will find.

[fatima]

Good Morning Everyone Bump.

[trebb]

LOL! Hate to see it hit land at all, but would really hate for it to hit me. If you're in a mall and someone starts shooting, do you stand tall in case ducking would cause a bullet coming your way to hit another person in the mall? Do you hope that you don't get shot?

Anyone who has been through a Katrina understands that one can hope like hell that any possible repeat goes somewhere else - and still sleep with a clear conscience.

[RipSawyer]

No, no, a thousand times no, Matthew did far more damage to my eight acres than Hugo did.

[trebb]

I'm just east of Biloxi - you had a bit more of a surge out that way and around the Kiln but the whole deal was bad. Hope it veers far and fast enough to minimize any damage but Florida seems to be the center line of the highway right now. Hate to see folks take another hit but if it doesn't veer east of Florida then running up the center might help dampen it and keep the horrendous surge from a counterclockwise storm moving east/north along a coastline - pushing water ahead of itself so it has more to push on land.

Prayers up for all of us.

[rollo tomasi]

This GFS model run (Most are predicting this wind field at least) is suggesting hurricane force winds extend out around 80 miles, TS around 200 miles. Going to big strong and big (Wind field) where ever the storm hits.

Best case scenarios for CONUS at this point is a track going over Hispaniola and Cuba which rips the storm up and weakens down to several categories at least (Of course that would be horrible for them) or an abrupt ENE turn (Which is not happening and window is closing) and just becoming "fish food".

[rollo tomasi]

Sorry forgot link, pay no attention to location, just the expanse of the wind field.

[palmer]

He boiled it down to a question of which Florida coast.

Tough choice for Floridians who may end up evacuating in the wrong direction. I do not envy them. That kind of right turn is going to be very hard to predict in advance. The bright spot this morning is Euro having the storm interact with Cuba. That should weaken it somewhat despite the Euro showing the opposite (strengthening after Cuba). There is history with Charley hitting Cuba but still hitting FL as cat 4 with 150 mph winds, but a very small wind field.

[palmer]

one of their more trusted models brings the storm over Cuba and that would weaken the storm

That's the Euro. The model is probably better at tracks than at intensity. The interaction with land like Cuba is difficult to model especially far in advance.

[larryjohnson]

Visiting Maine and will return to Jacksonville Sunday the 17th. Last year I was in Maine when my Florida community evacuated. I may again watch JAX tv on the internet in Maine.
Stay safe y’all
Larry

[rodguy911]

what was the path on this projection?

[rodguy911]

I see this track moving almost every day,I am in Islamorada and my kids in Sugarloaf,they think they can ride it out I want them to go to friends in Orlando.Problem is we don’t have a good grasp on where the eye will hit land.

[PreciousLiberty]

“Scientifically complete and utter bullsh_t.”

Care to present a shred of evidence for your assertion...?

It is in fact very basic science. All of the complexity and uncertainty lie around second-order phenomena, in particular atmospheric water vapor and clouds.

Again, I suggest reading drroyspencer.com. Look for some of his many articles discussing the basics of atmospheric physics - the subject in which he received his doctorate.

For the record, I agree that politically AGW is being misused. I remain personally unconvinced that the temperature change will end up being particularly harmful. There is also no reason that the standard of living can’t continue to rise around the world, even if a large reduction in use of fossil fuels is implemented. Solar and wind are practical at this point, and improving in cost. There is also plenty of nuclear energy to be had.

My touchstone for seeing if someone is serious about global warming is whether or not they agree with a massive nuclear electricity buildout, mainly to replace coal generation. Coal is a dirty source of energy whether or not CO2 is a concern.

[palmer]

Big problem with that kind of turn. I wouldn't trust any model at this point. You are both on the keys? You both need to think about leaving. The chance of Irma threading the needle between Cuba and Florida and hitting the keys is very real. The last time that happened perfectly was Labor Day 1935. Lowest pressure ever recorded on US soil.

A lot could change so I would not panic, but if you are going to get out, it's probably best to do it early.

[rollo tomasi]

Take this with a huge grain of salt, just one run. Direct hit on the Keys with a NEN direction, coming back out to sea around the Cape Canaveral area, and making another landfall around the Georgia/South Carolina border. Again, just one run. The importance of these projected models (At five days and beyond) is to pay attention.

When all the models (Around two days out) have a consensus then the areas (Not exact location since 'canes "wobble") the storm is heading to. After 3 days, the spaghetti models are still all over the place.

*Important* pay attention even if there is just one model run that goes to your region. Everyone from LA to NC/Virginia should be paying attention.

[kabar]

During Mathew we went to Atlanta from Hilton Head. My point is the best course of action, if possible, is to evacuate. Staying put just places you and your family in danger during the storm itself and adverse conditions in the aftermath. Evacuating was the best decision we made.