Hurricane Irma Live Thread

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[NautiNurse]

While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.

FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM

Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki

[Chgogal]

Good news.

Link please.

[jeffers]

The pic on the post I teplied to is worth 10k words.

[basalt]

just my uneducated guess...and hopefully, it just glances Florida and goes and dies near the coast of Canada...

[fantail 1952]

ping

[Uncle Lonny]

Catastrophic Katrina like storm surge predicted for north Fla, Georgia, and SC IF the current hurricane track and intensity is verified.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

[SE Mom]

Great graphic, thanks.

[snuffy smiff]

Ha! I knew it-present temp is now 47 degrees! I knew it would drop below the weatherquack’s earlier prediction of 53. When Irma runs into this it should take a lot of wind out of her sails and with some luck and a lot of prayers-it will hopefully stay far offshore and fizzle out!

[exit82]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/070901.shtml

Link to Public Advisory #33 issued at 5 am AST.

[jeffers]

Down 5 mph and up 7 mb. Looks like land blocking the left front inflow and shallower water, may be trumping warmer water.

If so, Cuba is long, and shallower yet.

Could just be an ERC though, it will be interesting to see what develops.

[SkyPilot]

Latest 5 am posting from Wunderground:

http://mobile.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-Irma

Movement: WNW at 17 mph

Wind: 180 mph

Pressure: 921 mb

[SkyPilot]

Looks like Miami FL, Jacksonville FL, Beaufort SC, Hilton Head Island SC, Charleston SC, Savannah GA, and then Charlotte NC have good reason to worry.

[foundedonpurpose]

https://www.weatherbell.com/

About half way down the page. Updated daily 6 days a week, not always in the most timely manner. The updates are free.

[SkyPilot]

From weather.com

[Eric Pode of Croydon]

Even a strong cat 3 which goes up through Dade/Broward/Palm Beach will do a helluva lot of damage.

So many houses there built in the '70s and '80s that are just like those which Andrew flattened. Built out of 2x4s and sheetrock.

[867V309]

Even a strong cat 3 which goes up through Dade/Broward/Palm Beach will do a helluva lot of damage.

no argument there.

crying wolf can be a problem though.

[novemberslady]

bkmk

[Eric Pode of Croydon]

I lived in Miami Springs 1985-2000, rode out Andrew without any problems (concrete house built in 1948, like a pillbox) but if I still lived there today I’d have bugged out by now.

[metmom]

Much of the storm is currently over the Puerto Rico Trench and, in a few hours, will pass over the Milwaukee Deep—more then five miles deep and the deepest point in the Atlantic Ocean. It will then shortly start going over the Bahama Banks, much of which is only tens of feet deep. Is this shallow enough to affect the amount water heat available to power the storm? Or, if stirred up, reduce the water heat available for the next storm?

The shallower water it is over will affect it some but probably not much. The hurricane draws its energy from a long ways out, as much as 500 miles in either direction.

The heat that it draws in goes to the center of the very low pressure of the eye and then rises up through the eye.

The thing that causes hurricanes to weaken fastest is having that supply or warm (above 80 F) water cut off either by heading near land or into water cooler than 80.

[rollo tomasi]

The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

Wunderground only plots the GFS and its supposed replacements which is a tad disingenuous. This is why rely on certain models are foolish, take this



I post this and the advisory stating that they are following the Euro track a bit more due to its accuracy with this storm. People will look at that eastern lines and let their guard down and think the NHC cone is complete BS/conspiracy garbage. People need to see the "other side" as well.

[metmom]

I mean, I understand there's a price of admission for availing yourself in a public shelter, but it shouldn't come with the price tag of an utter surrender of all your rights as a citizen.

They are CRIMINALS!!!!

Nobody is surrendering all their rights as citizens.

They should know who is at their shelters and if you don't like the thought of having an active arrest warrant on you or being a sexual offender or predator, DON'T DO THE CRIME.

There is NO WAY that the regular, law abiding citizens should have to surrender THEIR rights to safety just to appease the feely good nonsense of protecting those who have no respect for the rights of others.

So if you are going to a public place and availing yourself of government handouts, then yes, the safety of those in there is a valid concern and people should be willing to accept that scrutiny.