Hurricane Irma Live Thread

NHC/NOAA ^ | NHC/NOAA | NHC/NOAA

[SkyPilot]

Why does the NHC forecast show a center of storm to the WEST of almost all of the available "models"? Yesterday NHC showed the storm over Key West when most other models showed it hitting the middle keys. Today, those models show it going off the east coast. But NHC has it going right up the middle of peninsula.

That is because they are always very reluctant to publicly commit to the latest computer models until they are well established. The Weather Channel even admitted this a few years ago, saying that to give the public the latest information from models before it was much more certain would "only confuse the public."

So, they keep with the older data until it is obvious they have to release the new data.

Next, they feel that if they let a certain area off the hook (like the Florida Keys), then if they are wrong and the models turn back, they gave people too much of a sense of security and relief, and it is better to keep the public on edge (for safety sake).

[pinkandgreenmom]

“My beloved St. Martin... so very sad. This looks like the camera from the Sunset Bar and Grill on Maho Beach. Sniff, sniff.”

I know. My youngest can spend hours watching the planes come and go from that webcam and we love hanging out at that bar when we are in St. Maarten. I cannot imagine what it must look like now.

[SkyPilot]

I am in upstate SC and there has been virtually NO local discussion on TV or radio by any officials, re need to get prepared. I am just stunned by this,as model indicates a possible direct hit to my area.

Correct, and they won't publish that data until it is much more certain. They feel that if they now say the Carolinas are in the cone, then Floridians (whom they now have worked into a frenzy) will let their guard down too early.

[RayChuang88]

Right now, the next 36 to 42 hours will determine where will have landfall for this hurricane.

[bella1]

I’m trying to find info on the place we stay on Little Bay. I doubt it will be good news.

[bgill]

Brock LongVerified account@FEMA_Brock Administrator retweeted Fla Disaster Dept.‏ @SalArmyFlaEDS · 18h18 hours ago Your Florida team has already begun staging resources for Hurricane Irma. Please heed the warnings of your local officials and prepare!

[SkyPilot]

I still say it is shifting north and east.

Published just a few minutes ago:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/850567/Hurricane-Irma-track-florida-usa-path-map-forecast-when-were

Updated models from the ECMWF, Canadian and HWRF show large eastward shifts, making the forecast uncertain. Several forecasters have said that Irma could travel along Florida's east coast and avoid landfall. TTG FOX 5 Meteorologist Mike Thomas tweeted: “EAST SHIFT! Morning models turn Hurricane Irma just east of Florida similar to Matthew last year. If right, bad but not as bad as landfall.”

[janetjanet998]

PR long range radar loop

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

[SkyPilot]

I think I was a kid waiting for the bus the last time I felt chilly in early Sept. We deserve an early winter since summer practically began in Feb this year.

No kidding. Winter was over in much of the U.S. before it began last year.

[politicianslie]

What does NHC know that that others don't know?

AS the next post shows, the computer models are ALL trending to show the storm will most likely go further east than the earlier models.

The NHC's job is to keep people "scared" and moving, not get them over confident that the storm will actually go east of Fla. SO the NHC doesn't know anything which would indicate the storm really will stay further west than the computer models are predicting, they want to make sure the public stays focused.

In a few days, you can look back at this misrepresentation of what the data shows as propaganda. The gov't/press thinks that is their job.

[metmom]

We have a local meteorologist (NOT a TV met) who does private agricultural forecasting. He shares some of his knowledge with us on Facebook & when he sees major weather events, he keeps us posted. Good record of being accurate; however, when he busts a forecast, he readily admits it & explains what happened. He hates “hype” on weather events with a passion.

Which is true of virtually all the real meteorologists I know.

[NautiNurse]

What life and property are you trying to protect with Hurricane Irma? What difference does "official landfall" and riding 10 miles offshore make to people living along the coast? We don't give awards here for pinpoint landfall accuracy. I'm sure there are other websites that do.

Please, this is not a wishcast prognistication thread and your United Kingdom info source is noted.

[metmom]

My sister is in the Midlands and is watching this like a hawk.

The problem is, the more direct a hit, the more perpendicular the storm makes landfall, the more it maintains its strength until then.

If the storm tracked up the coast a bit before making landfall, running parallel to the coast, it loses half its fuel source and weakens considerably.

Although this one has a lot to lose to weaken to the point of not being a danger to somewhere.

[rollo tomasi]

Spaghetti models are basically useless 5 days out. Look at the cone that the NHC puts out. Last year look at Matt. 5 days out



. The 'cane's actual track was barely inside the western part of the cone. Every wobble can revert tracks by a lot of miles. Too early to guarantee anything. NHC will probably not shift the cone east that much at 11 update imo. My prediction, anywhere in that 5 day cone will be hit until models have a consensus (2 days out at least).

[Impala64ssa]

LOL! That’s exactly what I was thinking. I remember this well, it was a flood in Wayne, NJ about 25 yrs ago. Holy men walking on the water, SHEESH!

[Ingtar]

In their discussion, they did not move it East as much for one set of model shifts because shifting it based on one set of runs has proven premature before this.

[Hatteras]

We were dealing with Fran 21 years ago today...

But Fran came up east of The Bahamas. What is interesting is that Fran was the second of three active storms crossing the Atlantic at the same time, the others being Eduoard and Gustav. Though it weakened considerably a couple of times and was very disorganized due to the influence of Eduoard about 800 miles ahead of her, she kept redeveloping and once Eduoard was out of the way, Fran pulled herself together and ramped up to a Cat 3 before making landfall at Cape Fear.

[angcat]

So true!

[justa-hairyape]

Not in the West or northwest. Was a record winter for snowfall. Some ski places stayed open all year.

[SkyPilot]

What life and property are you trying to protect with Hurricane Irma? What difference does "official landfall" and riding 10 miles offshore make to people living along the coast?

In actuality, track to the east is much worse for my father who lives in North Carolina and for me further north. Secondly, it makes a big difference if it starts tracking further east and north for millions of people. The latest models are now showing that. I'm sorry if you don't agree, but that's what I see.