In actuality, track to the east is much worse for my father who lives in North Carolina and for me further north. Secondly, it makes a big difference if it starts tracking further east and north for millions of people. The latest models are now showing that. I'm sorry if you don't agree, but that's what I see.
Wait til it hits Cuba...could bounce a lot from that. Along with the Norths Jet stream dropping...can change the equation....
The logistics of evac’ing FL are dreadful if the natives are overly calmed by the Ern spaghetti shift, compared to running for the hills from GA and up the coast. Matthew missing might lull too many back to sleep. Her people are more vulnerable if Irma swings back West.
The NHC will have considerably more confidence for Irma impacts on CONUS Thursday (tomorrow), per Ed Rappaport.