Posted on 08/03/2017 4:57:16 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
What the US Knew About North Korea's Second ICBM Launch Before It Happened
U.S. military intelligence observed North Korea’s preparation for a second ICBM test from Mupyong-ni.
By Ankit Panda
July 31, 2017
The United States had anticipated North Korea’s July 28 test launch of the Hwasong-14/KN20 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from Mupyong-ni and also detected the launch pad used that day, The Diplomat has learned.
According to a U.S. government source with knowledge of North Korea’s weapons programs who spoke to The Diplomat, the United States had been watching the site “for weeks and saw some of the preparations in the 24 hours preceding launch.”
The source added that confidence about an imminent launch on July 28 was high by about “four hours prior to launch.” This assessment was also partly based on North Korea’s set-up of a VIP viewing area near the launch site for Kim Jong-un and other senior regime officials.
A “Surprise Attack”?
The July 28 launch of the Hwasong-14 ICBM was different from the July 4 launch, which was the first-ever of an intercontinental-range missile by North Korea, in two important ways. The first was that North Korea successfully demonstrated much greater performance and theoretical range given the observed trajectory.
The second was that North Korea carried out the launch at nighttime and in conditions likely meant to simulate operational use. A report on the launch carried by North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) noted that it demonstrated “the capability of making surprise launch of ICBM in any region and place any time.”
If the United States was indeed able to successfully detect activity prior to launch, North Korea’s claim of being able to carry out a surprise launch was overstated.
(Excerpt) Read more at thediplomat.com ...
On Jul 28 a Hwasong-14, launched from Chagang province, reached an apogee of around 3,700 km. If launched for maximum range, it appears this missile could reach over 11,000 km, and so counts as an ICBM.
11,000 km is about Kansas City from NK.
HOWEVER, that’s with a minimal payload.
Do you suppose they will launch a 3-stage ICBM with a bigger payload next time?
I also heard that the end game (without using a nuke warhead) is to launch an ICBM with a conventional warhead and make it survive re-entry and detonate before hitting the ground. Do you think this is how they would proceed?
They sure could add a stage and get significant range and payload.
The Norks appear to have significant guidance problems with re-entry. Conventional munitions for any decent yield are very heavy also, but even 500 pounds would cause quite a fuss.
If I were the Norks, I would do a sub launch, conventional munitions, 250 miles off the coast of WA, CA, or OR and detonate suborbital, just inside international waters. They have that technology now, solid fuel, and have the subs to do it.
Legally, what would we say? That would really poke the bee hive.
Let's pray that their sub can make a safe return trip home afterwards.:-)
1) Confidence is high about 4 hours before launch.
How close can we pre-position assets near Korea where they
a) won't be detected
b) can actually launch a strike suddenly enough that the target doesn't hop in a helicopter or car and leave in time
c)...on less than 4 hour's notice?
2) Are there any anti-Trump moles who would surreptitiously warn any targets, even through a series of cut-outs?
3) If we try and by any chance *miss*, what are the repurcussions? Do the Norks launch an ICBM to save face, activate sleeper cells already in the US, or screw with South Korea or Japan?
Do we manage to broadcast some of our techniques & methods?
4) If we try and succeed, do we draw in *China* ?
They talk about surgical strike all the time, but have not worked to put assets in place, so even when the opportunity presented itself twice, they couldn't do anything. If there is another less risky alternative, it would be good, but is there one?
As for Chinese, they are not going to like anything U.S. does. They will always try to move in. That is pretty much a given. It is better to get things done before they can do anything about it.
Perhaps they should put slow-acting poison into his favorite food such as cheese. Or some hither-to-unknown hormone which can trigger uncontrollable weight gain.:-)
The dreaded Chris Christie pill?
Any real threat by the Norks would be suicidal.
The Chinese will occupy NK and install a puppet government.
One day (with any luck) his rocket will mis-fire and come down on his fat head.
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